Boston Marathon BQ cutoff prediction 2019 - 5 minutes 20 seconds

Interesting, that's good to know...

BQ123 wrote:

Of the 28k in 2018 that submitted, only 23k were accepted. So take18% off the 33k to leave 27k.

People have tried to predict the cutoff with more detail analysis that you and have failed. A big variable has been the number of time qualifiers. Might add more charity runners to make it harder to get in.

I always thought the 1996 Boston was a great idea. Give everyone a chance to apply for a lottery to run the 100th Boston regardless of time. It was meant to be a one-time-only celebration of the historic race. Instead, it was the beginning of the end if the Boston Marathon.

A 5 1/2 minute cutoff would find some runners qualifying for both their age group and the one just below (younger), albeit by only 30 seconds. I’d imagine BAA would adjust qualifying times should that happen.

This whole thing seems like a ludicrous sham. So you "qualified" but you're not allowed to run? Then what does "qualified" even mean?

BQ123 wrote:

I tabulated the total BQs for each major BQ marathon for 2018 and 2019 in a spreadsheet (data derived from marathonguide) and derived a prediction for the 2019 BQ cutoff as 5:20.

My results are as follows:

Total BQs for 2019 boston marathon = 36.6k . Total BQs for 2018 boston marathon = 31.6k

i.e. there are 5000 more BQs this year.

in 2018, only 28k of the 31.6k submitted applications, so take 10% off the 36.6k leaves 33k 2019 submissions

Of the 28k in 2018 that submitted, only 23k were accepted. So take18% off the 33k to leave 27k.

So now we have to increase the cutoff because we are still 4k above the limit of 23k.

We know that in 2018, 3k were

While running Boston will always be a bucket list running venture for me, I'll run it whenever that day comes. There are soo many other races, and I am not taking away from the prestige of a BQ, but the obsession that social media plays into with a BQ is exhausting and quickly played out. I am running a small town marathon in September, it's going to challenging with beautiful scenery all around, and I am beyond stoked. Appreciate whatever race you're running.

This feels all good, but there's a lot to be said about the Boston Marathon adding a sense of purpose to a lot of people's training plans. I'd imagine that if BQs didn't' exist, the average marathon time in the US would drop. Once someone gets close to the BQ, they often will work very hard to get under that number, whereas they might not care if there wasn't an arbitrary goal put in front of them.

Respectfully, I'm not sure I agree with your prediction and methodology.

I think the most likely BQ runners to run the next Boston are the ones who get their BQ at Boston, because they have a history of running Boston, often many times.

So I think a high percentage of BQs achived at Boston will enter the next year, and a somewhat lower percentage of BQs achieved at other races.

Given that 2018 was a slow year at Boston with the cold rain and headwind, it's likely that many thousand less runners BQ'ed in the race.

Of course they could go somewhere else and get their time.

My prediction is the cut-off will be easier than recent years, perhaps 90 seconds.

We can thank the plague of down hill marathon races for this. Even legit races modified their course to be down hill (Ventura)

I'm trying to qualify for Boston 2020. I will be 31 years old during my attempt. What do I need to run under.

Just tell me.

3 hours.

I've only got a BQ -2:15 so I'm already not optimistic. If I did have a -5:00 and still didn't get in, I'd be livid.

help me please wrote:

I'm trying to qualify for Boston 2020. I will be 31 years old during my attempt. What do I need to run under.

Just tell me.

Sub 3 should do it. You'd be -5 minutes at least of the "toughest" time qualifier. At my age I only need 3:25, so even a pedestrian 3:15 would be more than enough.

There were actually way more qualifiers in Boston 2018 than in Boston 2017 (look up the results on Marathonguide.com). There are too many variables to predict. For example, the next year after a Boston Marathon has crappy weather it gets a much lower application rate. The BAA also has a lot of latitude as to how many charity and other reserved bibs they set aside. If they decide to set aside more than last year then the numbers would indicate that the cutoff will be larger than the -3:23 from last year. The advent of the pure downhill marathon is also increasing the % of BQers.

Finally, it is just hard to predict how many qualifiers want to go to Boston in 2019. For example, if most of the people that have qualified are people who have run Boston before then the application rate for qualifiers is probably lower. However, if the majority of the people who qualified are first-time qualifiers then the sheer increase in the numbers of qualifiers would say that it will be harder to register this year. Without this data it is virtually impossible to predict an accurate cutoff time. My gut feel tells me that the cutoff will be close to -4:00 minutes. And hey, I won the "guess the cutoff time" game on the RW forums last year so I know what the heck I'm talking about. :-)

I will hate being right since my qualifying time is only -3:15. Maybe I'll run one of them downhill monsters...

How was it possible that there were more qualifiers at the 2018 Boston Marathon compared with the 2017 Boston Marathon?

The times for the elites were much slower than normal..

The times for the masses were faster than normal?

up thru the ground came a bubbling crude wrote:

How was it possible that there were more qualifiers at the 2018 Boston Marathon compared with the 2017 Boston Marathon?

The times for the elites were much slower than normal..

The times for the masses were faster than normal?

Many reasons:

1) Self selection. The cutoff is faster every year so everyone starting is faster than prior years.

2) Boston 2018 was harder on skinny guys. The front corrals are skinnier, lower body fat on average.

3) The wind. The guys starting later had a massive pack advantage, shelter from the wind. This is perhaps the biggest factor.

4) The back packers always overdress and this year this worked to their advantage. Boston 2018 was not a race to be typical marathon skinny or wear split shorts and singlet. It was the year to overdress with rain jacket and full tights even.

Lock_N_Load wrote:

I will hate being right since my qualifying time is only -3:15. Maybe I'll run one of them downhill monsters...

I decided against another. I'm just going to get ready for an October Marathon.

I shot for a -6:30, but faded to -3:38. I've gone twice before, but if I get squeaked out I'm going to stay home DEVASTATED!

BQ123 wrote:

I tabulated the total BQs for each major BQ marathon for 2018 and 2019 in a spreadsheet (data derived from marathonguide) and derived a prediction for the 2019 BQ cutoff as 5:20.

My results are as follows:

Total BQs for 2019 boston marathon = 36.6k . Total BQs for 2018 boston marathon = 31.6k

i.e. there are 5000 more BQs this year.

in 2018, only 28k of the 31.6k submitted applications, so take 10% off the 36.6k leaves 33k 2019 submissions

Of the 28k in 2018 that submitted, only 23k were accepted. So take18% off the 33k to leave 27k.

So now we have to increase the cutoff because we are still 4k above the limit of 23k.

We know that in 2018, 3k were

If you ran more instead of making tables about how slow you can run and still qualify, you wouldn’t have to make tables about how slow you can run and still qualify

Slow Bro wrote:

I've only got a BQ -2:15 so I'm already not optimistic. If I did have a -5:00 and still didn't get in, I'd START WORKING HARDER.