Salazar calls Rupp a future "2:05 guy".....TWO BIG MISTAKES

CT Track wrote:

In my opinion, Meb let Galen win. I mean, Meb finished easy, smiling, waving, yelling, he had no reason to push hard or finish fast, he had second place in the bag. I think our Marathon team this year will be the best we have had in a long time!

Yes, very immature of Rupp to go at 23 miles when coach said not until 25. (Too much "testosterone medication"?)

Meb coasted in easy, already thinking of the next week's work, while Rupp was fried.

rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:

So, Alberto SALAZAR says that Galen Rupp is "a 2:05 guy someday"?

It is so funny that he casually throws that out there. TWO POINTS.

ONE. Alberto Salazar has never coached, trained with or even had a conversation with a "2:05 guy," so how would he know this?

TWO. Rupp is only 15 seconds better in the 10,000 than Dathan. Therefore Dathan should be within one minute of Rupp in a marathon, or a "2:06 guy." Since Dathan barely broke 2:08 in years of flailing away with Salazar, is Salazar admitting that he FAILED TO OPTIMALLY DEVELOP DATHAN?

Only serious discussions on these points, please.

He is easily a 2:05 guy on fast course like Chicago or Berlin, with his racing ability he has the potential to win one of the big ones.

Now that Rupp has run, finished, and won a marathon under challenging weather conditions, he will have the confidence and discipline necessary to run a marathon with the elites at an elite time. Really, the weather was the most difficult factor at the OT for Rupp, and he cruised through it like a veteran.

I don't think Mo has the patience to train/run a fast marathon, but I do think Rupp will. Plus, it's hard to deny the motivation of big $$ out there for marathons.

The still unanswered questions is Rupp

a) Ritz. A guy who peaks at the HM and can't run 26 miles anywhere near as fast as he should

or

b) Hall. A guy who runs the marathon about how fast you would expect off his 5k and HM times.

Evidence is pointing towards b but only time will tell. There are ton of guys that look like they should dominate the marathon (i.e. Ritz) given that they look like strength versus speed guys, who never run decent times. See Zersenay Tadese for the example of a 58:23 guy who can't break 2:10. Or WeJo who is a 28 min 10k guy who couldn't run sub 2:15.

asdfads wrote:

The still unanswered questions is Rupp

a) Ritz. A guy who peaks at the HM and can't run 26 miles anywhere near as fast as he should

or

b) Hall. A guy who runs the marathon about how fast you would expect off his 5k and HM times.

Evidence is pointing towards b but only time will tell. There are ton of guys that look like they should dominate the marathon (i.e. Ritz) given that they look like strength versus speed guys, who never run decent times. See Zersenay Tadese for the example of a 58:23 guy who can't break 2:10. Or WeJo who is a 28 min 10k guy who couldn't run sub 2:15.

To me Rupp looked better at 23 miles when he was pushing the pace with ease and negative splitting in the heat, than most of the 2:11 - 2:14 guys did at mile 8. He looked like a guy who was being held back by his coach in a workout or race, where his coach finally gives him the go ahead to press it. I'm sure most rational people would say that his effort right there was good for 2:07-2:08 on one of the notoriously fast venues, and he wasn't redlining ever. Maybe he'll do one next year and we'll know.

Yeah, I said when they had one lap to go that they wouldn't race, that maybe Rupp would go with 400 just so it wasn't some dumb tie or something. Both clearly had the one-two down, so what was the point?

But then, recalling that Rupp generally runs a hard workout after races (I'm seeking lots of high school cross country teams do this anymore, for what that's worth), I figured he'd go at 22-23.

He wasn't "fried," he had just never run a string of sub-5 miles after running 20+ miles before, low HR for 20 or not.

thermoreg wrote:

CT Track wrote:

In my opinion, Meb let Galen win. I mean, Meb finished easy, smiling, waving, yelling, he had no reason to push hard or finish fast, he had second place in the bag. I think our Marathon team this year will be the best we have had in a long time!

Yes, very immature of Rupp to go at 23 miles when coach said not until 25. (Too much "testosterone medication"?)

Meb coasted in easy, already thinking of the next week's work, while Rupp was fried.

True Rupp may yet be a marathon star, but LA told us nothing. He definitely worked too hard in the last few miles. It was not THAT hot. I would give him a 2:07 equivalent for it, which is inferior to his 5/10K. He still has much to prove.

Put the answer to this question another way. I hope he can run 2:05 and I look forward to the day when an American can toe the line with a world class marathon field and be there with all the physical & mental tools required to hang with the best and a chance to win. It was exciting to see Hall lead Boston but now we need a finisher. It will be pretty exciting, perhaps as good as the "duel in the sun"

fksolo wrote:

Butt-certified Clown-bar wrote:

1. He (Rupp) ran 2:11 without pushing hard in the heat. That indicates he should be able to run ~2:06 now with cool weather and if he pushes himself.

...

4. His 10,000 time converts to 2:02:58 with the Daniels VDOT calculator, which is the most reliable equivalency predictor.

Do you have anything to support either of these statements?

VERY reliable!!!

I just calculated 2:01:00 for Bekele, 2:01:10 for Geb and 2:01:50 for Tergat. Oh wait... ;-)

Rupp may run 2:02:58, who knows. But those calculators are ridiculous.

So what if he runs 2:05? It'll put him in the top 10 for the year and maybe get him a decent paycheck, but that's hardly on a par with an Olympic silver medal.

JoggingsTroller wrote:

fksolo wrote:

Do you have anything to support either of these statements?

VERY reliable!!!

I just calculated 2:01:00 for Bekele, 2:01:10 for Geb and 2:01:50 for Tergat. Oh wait... ;-)

Rupp may run 2:02:58, who knows. But those calculators are ridiculous.

Tergat and Bekele hit the marathon 5+ years after their prime . Get was a 26:51 runner when he ran his Marathon PR, not a a 26:30 guy. Tergat was a 27 min guy when he became a marathoner.

JoggingsTroller wrote:

fksolo wrote:

Do you have anything to support either of these statements?

VERY reliable!!!

I just calculated 2:01:00 for Bekele, 2:01:10 for Geb and 2:01:50 for Tergat. Oh wait... ;-)

Rupp may run 2:02:58, who knows. But those calculators are ridiculous.

Daniels' calculator is crap for anything else than what it's based on - college level mid-distance runners.

rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:

So, Alberto SALAZAR says that Galen Rupp is "a 2:05 guy someday"?

It is so funny that he casually throws that out there. TWO POINTS.

ONE. Alberto Salazar has never coached, trained with or even had a conversation with a "2:05 guy," so how would he know this?

TWO. Rupp is only 15 seconds better in the 10,000 than Dathan. Therefore Dathan should be within one minute of Rupp in a marathon, or a "2:06 guy." Since Dathan barely broke 2:08 in years of flailing away with Salazar, is Salazar admitting that he FAILED TO OPTIMALLY DEVELOP DATHAN?

Only serious discussions on these points, please.

Hey, remember - SERIOUS discussion ONLY of these profound thoughts. TWO POINTS:

- Coach has nerve to suggest upper-level world class 5 and 10K runner (measured in PRs and medals) might run second-tier-ish marathon time. How absurd!

- He's aware of every conversation that a very prominent former athlete and current coach has had with elite runners. Wow.

The OP comes close to making a decent point about Ritz under-performing in the marathon.....but it's only good in comparison to the earlier silliness. As anyone who pays attention knows, predicting marathon performance is pretty difficult. And believe it or not, OP, not every apparent under-performer was coached by Salazar.

Indeed, discussing under-performers can be interesting, in a disappointed kind of way. I was always disappointed that Williams never ran a marathon equal to his track/XC performances. It does seem that, perhaps, Americans have a particular tendency to under-perform in the marathon. A good number of roundabout 13 and 27 guys in the last 10 years or so, and only one really fast marathoner (Hall) to show for it. It's too bad. As someone else said, it would be fun to see an American-born male able to mix it up in big city marathons. Hopefully, Rupp acheives that.

thermoreg wrote:

foo wrote:

Consider that Rupp ran a 2:11 when:

1) It was brutally hot. (I was sweating just standing there.)

2) The course sucked - over 100 turns and in ugly downtown LA

3) It was his first marathon.

4) there was little or no competition. (All due respect to Meb)

5) there wasn't much incentive for him to win. He would qualify with a 3rd place finish. (I'm assuming the 80k doesn't mean that much to him)

I think in an ideal race, he definitely could run 2:05.

Wasn't that hot. Athens and Beijing were hot (90s). 70s not hot.

And what were your times in Athens and Beijing compared to LA?

Nevermind wrote:

thermoreg wrote:

Wasn't that hot. Athens and Beijing were hot (90s). 70s not hot.

And what were your times in Athens and Beijing compared to LA?

One thing people don't take into account when throwing out temps/humidity is acclimation. upper 80s or lower 90s in august is not as extreme for a lot of people as 78 (nearly 80) in February in the US.

Ritz is a great runner, but his best mark is at 5K. Certainly he's demonstrated world class running at the Half Marathon. But, you have to admit Ritz is not a true marathoner, as his spotty record at the distance bears out. Even his best run over the distance, his 2:07 in Chicago, had him 3 minutes behind the world's best. Not medal material.

Rupp, he's run one pretty good marathon. It would appear he's well suited to the distance. Time will tell. I tend to think he'll medal in Rio, but I'm biased. I'm a big fan.

Also, I'm pretty sure it was not in the 90s for the 2008 Olympic marathon. Hot, but not that hot.

hindsighter wrote:

One thing people don't take into account when throwing out temps/humidity is acclimation. upper 80s or lower 90s in august is not as extreme for a lot of people as 78 (nearly 80) in February in the US.

This is a good point. In the winter, many are not in any way acclimated to high 70s and sunny, whereas that would be comfortable in the summer.

And there was carnage out there in the race. You take all these guys who have either run sub 1:05 or sub 2:19 and very few of them ran close to that level time-wise. Rupp's performance was surely worth several minutes faster and he did not honestly try to hold a fast pace except in the last several miles. Meb's performance was a quality one as well, especially considering that he has broken 2:09 once. Rupp must not figure he needs the money, because otherwise he would have made the move to marathon years ago and pulled in plenty of paychecks.

kjc wrote:

Hey "rupp-certified saladbar"

Here is why you have ZERO credibility on these boards. This is what you said -

1) GALEN RUPP WILL DNS the Olympic Marathon Trials

2) the Olympic Marathon Trials are NOT RUPP Certified. TOO HOT!

3) If he does run, he will DNF> He will crash by 25K. Mark my Words!

You are a loser. Deal with it.

Um...read betterer. I said:

The question is what does he do if he finds himself in 4th or 5th. I'd say guaranteed DNF.

Of course, If everyone does the usual p#ssypack jogfest that the USATF OT 5,000/10,000 have been reduced to, then Galen Rupp will be very comfortable two hours into a sub-maximal long run (2:10 pace) significantly slower than his ceiling marathon pace (2:05-2:06). He will easily crush anyone with him at 25 miles of a 2:10:xx race.

If anyone has the gonads to take on 2:08 pace from early on, Rupp may end up falling off the lead, hurting and alone: conditions under which he is known to DNF given his lack of racing character.

But the only people capable of that pace (Meb, Ritz, nobody else in the current weak U.S. stable) have no reason to take it on. Why risk blowing up and missing Rio when the goal for this one is top-3, not a win?

Thus, Galen either wins or DNFs with excuses. Same as 99% of his American-soil appearances.

Got it?

I knew exactly what would happen. And Meb was smart to LET RUPP GO.

I am omniscient. Deal with it.