Renato Canova wrote:
High Octane, the research you posted is dated in 2003, and was at the beginning of the road for understanding the EPO doping.
When Ashenden writes about “Elite athletes”, he NEVER really tested any REAL Elite, and they were not in a period of hard training.
The first problem is to agree about what means ELITE.
If we speak about the possibility the WR are clean or not, we need to investigate around a number of athletes who were able to run times close to the WR, in percentage.
Here you can see the difference, in percentage, among the WR and the time of the number 100 all-time (men only) :
800m : 1’40”91 (WR) – 1’43”81 (-2,87%)
1500m : 3’26”00 (WR) – 3’31”94 (-2.88%)
5000m : 12’37”35 (WR) – 13’00”41 (-3.04%)
10000m : 26’17”53 (WR) – 27’12”37 (-3.48%)
3000m Steeple : 7’53”63 (WR) – 8’11”80 (-3.84%)
Marathon : 2:02:57 (WR) – 2:06:16 (- 2.70%)
Now, we go to see how many athletes, in top 100, were caught doped for EPO :
800m : Nobody
1500m :
Ramzi (BRN – Mar) (3’29”14 – 16th all time)
Laalou (Mar) (3’29”53 – 24th all time)
Chouki (Fra) (3’30”83 – 52nd all-time)
Khaouch (Mar) (3’31”10 – 63rd all-time)
Shahween (KSA) (3’31”82 – 93rd all-time) Biological Passport
5000m :
Mourhit (Bel – Mar) (12’49”71 – 15th all-time)
Goumri (Mar) (12’50”25 – 18th all-time) Biological Passport
Bezabeh (Esp – Mar) (12’57”25 – 68th all-time) Biological Passport
Al-Outaibi (KSA) (12’58”58 – 79th all-time)
10000m :
Mourhit (Bel – Mar) (26’52”30 – 34th all-time)
Goumri (Mar) (27’02”62 – 62nd all-time) Biological Passport
Steeple :
Brahim Boulami (Mar) (7’55”28 – 4th all-time)
Chatbi (Mar) (8’08”86 – 60th all-time) CERA
Hamid Ezzine (Mar) (8’09”72 – 74th all-time) Refusal to do the test
Jimenez (Esp) (8’11”52 – 97th all-time) Possession EPO
Marathon :
Erupe (Ken) (2:05:13 – 40th all-time) and several times I explained he received EPO in the hospital when he had REAL malaria
Goumri (Mar) (2:05:30 – 54th all-time) Biological Passport
There were also other doped athletes in top 100 all-time, but not for EPO :
800m :
Sepeng (RSA) 1’42”69 (20th) Nandrolone - Laalou (Mar) 1’43”25 (52nd) Furosemide
1500m :
Saidi-Sief (Alg) 3’29”51 (23rd) but he could demonstrate he used a supplement containing steroids without information, and won the trial against the Company, that had to refund the money he didn’t win during the period of ban
Kipkurui (KEN) 3’30”67 (48th all-time) for methamphetamine, and received 3 months ban
5000m :
Saidi-Sief (Alg) 12’50”86 (22nd all-time) see above
Baumann (Ger) 12’54”70 (45th all-time) Nandrolone
Kisorio (Ken) 12’57”83 (71st all-time) Nandrolone
10000m :
Kisorio (26’54”25) 41st all-time (see above)
Steeple :
Vroemen (Ned) 8’04”95 (25th all-time) Metandienone. He went to CAS showing it was a medicament for asthma, and was cleared after two years. His test came after running the new European Record, and himself was the one asking for the antidoping, in order to validate his AR.
Musa Amer Obaid (Qat) 8’07”18 (43rd all-time) Testosterone
Hachlaf (Mar) 8’08”78 (57th all-time) Nandrolone
Marathon : Nobody
These numbers means that the percentage of athletes DOPED FOR EPO or similar VECTORS, in top 100 (that can be already a WIDE idea of Elite, if referred to the WR) is as follows :
800m : 0%
1500m : 5%
5000m : 4%
10000m : 2%
Steeple : 4%
Marathon : 2%
With these numbers, to speak about WIDESPREAD doping for blood manipulation is something out of the reality, and is not possible to think that, with all the tests in competition, and out of competition, that the athletes do (I can assure that Kenyans were the most controlled athletes also in the past, for example with specific tests paid by the Major Marathons with ALL the best athletes running their marathons, BEFORE the competition, in Kenya : Rita Jeptoo and Jemima Sumgong were tested in Kenya, OOC, for example), only marathon runners are so smart to dope, but able to avoid to be caught.
Coming back to the research of Ashenden, that didn’t regard Elite athletes well trained, and the final result doesn’t respect the reality.
ATHLETES LIVING AND TRAINING AT MAX LEVEL IN ALTITUDE ARE ABLE TO RUN AT THEIR BEST LEVEL ALSO AFTER 3 MONTHS OF STAY AT SEA LEVEL, if their training can change according to the new situation.
For example, Paul Kosgei bettered the WR of 25 km in 2004 after 3 months of stay in Torino, where I rent a house for the African athletes training in Italy for long periods, although if his blood values changed, becoming similar the values of Italian athletes.
The big mistake some physiologists do (and posters in LR normally do) is to consider as FINAL GOAL for the performance the level of Hb or Hct.
How I already explained several times, the WR for who has the higher Hct doesn’t exist : instead, exist the WR for who is able running faster, and top athletes frequently have low Hct, and, under individual data, are able running faster when their Hct is in the right range (frequently lower than when they have higher values).
This clearly shows how ALL the researches of physiologists (for themselves in some University, or as specialists of antidoping) NEVER look at the real subjects, and how the same physiologists don’t have any experience, and any clue, about training : how much is the volume, how much is the intensity, how much is the modulation, how much is the supercompensation, and of course which type of modification can INDUCE in the physiology of the users.
Finally : where are the "lot of elite Kenyan athletes" caught for EPO (or also other type of doping) ?
Again, what is ELITE for you ? And, when we speak about the Kenyan number 30 in Kenya in Half marathon or Marathon (this year, till now when the season is not still over, with times of 60:24 and 2:07:25), do you think there is some Country in the world going to test OOC some athlete number 30, in any event, in the seasonal national lists ?
So, KENYAN ARE GUILTY TO BE TOO MANY, STRONGER THAN RUNNERS OF OTHER COUNTRIES.
Is it a big fault ? Yes, if the other athletes are no more able to run like 30 or 40 years ago. But this doesn't depend on EPO, and doesn't depend on the value of Kenyan and Ethiopian athletes : depends on the type of western Society we created during the last 15 years, where the final goal is to improve the QUALITY OF LIFE (that, translated, means to cancel the idea of fatigue, delegating every hard physical work to some machine, and this is not exactly the best way for finding athletes able running fast, needing high level of facing pain and sufferance during their training and their competitions).