Italy - 2 Weeks Post Total Lockdown & A record Number Of Deaths

It’s true that Italy shut down schools and universities sometime ago. But this actually made the situation worse. People took it like holidays and spread the virus even more. It wasn’t until there was a full mandatory lockdown that the clock can start to count. The exact same thing happened in Spain. Students went clubbing, people sprawled onto the terraces of Madrid to have their caña.

I definitely think there is something in the two kisses spreading the virus like wildfire and also a lot of the older generation having their lungs shot by a lifetime of smoking. But it’s still some disparity from Germany. We know that when health systems are overwhelmed death rates go up. Germany has more beds and this helps. But still, they have tbousands reported infected and still an very very low death rate. I imagine it’s a combination of all the these above and that they have the means/taken testing more seriously - if this is the case I would expect a lag in symptoms and severity of cases.

Main thing with Italy was the cases weren't evenly spread with young and old, it was nearly all old people, and why the death rate is higher there. Not quite sure why that was, maybe some care homes spiked the first issues, and that took hold starting the fire.

Coevett wrote:

Here in the Czech Republic there have been over 500 cases and not a single death yet. Czech Republic now has the highest total of cases in the world without any deaths.

And as far as I know they have mostly only been testing hospital patients.

What's the atmosphere of the mainstream media like over there?

mwh wrote:

Finland doesn't look so good relative to its small size.

One troubling aspect of Europe is that warmer countries are doing worst, while we hope the coming warmer weather slows the virus.

What's your thought on the disparity between Iran & Iraq? Those numbers are so polarized it's not even funny but yet they border each other.

Iran - 17,300 cases/1,135 deaths.

Iraq - 164 cases/12 deaths

I realize that Iraq has less than half the population of Iran, but still the difference is unbelievable.

Just looks like Iraq is further back down the road. Probably less mobility, people in and out of the country etc.

The main problem was that a lot of Young people considered the virus as a normal flu, and didn't follow the rule that the Gov. put for the Emergency. Too many were stupid, like a lot of posters in LR comparing the effects of Corona with the number of car accidents (like every person having a car accident could infect other 3 people every time).

People not understanding the difference between accidents or personal diseases not infecting other people (like cancer) and the development of a global infection are the worst enemies in this case.

There is a balance between panic and lack of fright, both the situations are very da ngerous when we have to face every type of problem.

sp2 wrote:

busser wrote:

Italy, Spain and France right now have the highest deaths in Europe. Germanic/nordic at the bottom. The cost of cheek kissing?

I haven't had a chance to look into this, but I'm guessing that German (and Scandinavian) death-rate is completely fake. It's so far out of line with everything else, it just makes no sense at all.

It probably turns out there's some idiotic quirk to the way they're recording things that's making them fail to count most of the CV deaths.

Or something is wrong with Italy's numbers and Germany/Scandinavia are accurate. Hard to say Germany and Scandinavia are out of line with "everything" else when 82% of all deaths are from three countries. Those three countries aren't everything.

Germany’s numbers aren’t that low. 90% of their cases have come in the last 5 days. Deaths lag.

It's been a little less than that and the virus last 2-14 days so for those who died they could have been infected well before the lockdown. Family members who were asymptomatic before the lockdown could have passed it along to other family members they're on lockdown with. It would be better to wait another week of 2 to support your argument.

From what I have heard people die on average about 17 days after getting infected. You also have to see that cumulation of critical patients exceeded some capacities in the meantime, so death rate now is likely higher than for example two weeks ago.

Besides that - a record number doesn't proof your point, the important thing is if the growth rate goes down, not the absolute numbers. Maybe we can update this thread in some days.

timetells wrote:

From what I have heard people die on average about 17 days after getting infected. You also have to see that cumulation of critical patients exceeded some capacities in the meantime, so death rate now is likely higher than for example two weeks ago.

Besides that - a record number doesn't proof your point, the important thing is if the growth rate goes down, not the absolute numbers. Maybe we can update this thread in some days.

I suspect Italy is close to it's peak in terms of absolute deaths / new infections after the lockdown. The real question is how do we move forward after lockdown? It's in nearly every country now, and with shoddy testing worldwide, it's going to stick around and get back in to countries over time. I predict at least in the states that people will be tired of social distancing after a month or two and we'll see a big resurgence over the summer.

You are right, we need other/additional solutions because we cannot play this game for the next year. But still, this is the right thing to do now, because it keeps more options alive or makes them easier. It also buys us some time in which we can work out the next steps.

There is big difference between active cases and closed cases. An active case either results in death or recovery. So active infections do not represent a complete statistical outcome.

"Young" people in Italy lives with their parents till their 30s, 40s, or even more.

Not ideal for old folks.

Pretty horrifying from Italy:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-covid19-italy-hospital-deaths-us-warning.html

The OP's post isn't relevant to me.

I believe in Wuhan the peak number of cases happened 1 month after the quarantine. Can someone provide the Wuhan numbers as that's what I remember reading. Now less than 2 months from the quarantine there are zero new cases.

Is there any one in the world who would trust Donald Trump over Angela Merkel?

Renato Canova wrote:

The main problem was that a lot of Young people considered the virus as a normal flu, and didn't follow the rule that the Gov. put for the Emergency. Too many were stupid, like a lot of posters in LR comparing the effects of Corona with the number of car accidents (like every person having a car accident could infect other 3 people every time).

People not understanding the difference between accidents or personal diseases not infecting other people (like cancer) and the development of a global infection are the worst enemies in this case.

There is a balance between panic and lack of fright, both the situations are very da ngerous when we have to face every type of problem.

Thanks for bringing some much needed sanity here.

help help wrote:

Germany’s numbers aren’t that low. 90% of their cases have come in the last 5 days. Deaths lag.

But the numbers ARE that low. You're just claiming the numbers could be wrong, or that one day they will be different.

That is exactly what us "deniers" have been saying all along. Glad you finally came around. Know what else "lags?" The real number of infected people. We won't know that for years, but it could be 10 to 100 times as many as are found by the tests. Are 10 to 100 times as many German reported cases going to end up dead as the current 43? Not likely. So their calculated death rate can be taken as an upper bound for the true mortality.

Mortal blow to your "lag" argument: which other country had only 43 deaths when it reached 14,400 cases? Italy's case load got there just as suddenly, so did Spain. No, just tell it like it is: The Italians are testing people likely to die, and the Germans are testing more widely. So there will be less "lag" for the Germans.