Calm the F**K Down! - What is wrong with everyone?

Vancomycin wrote:

Well that's not entirely true any more in the Bay and Seattle they are testing 1000s per day. We will have a better sense of the numbers soon. SK has tested hundreds of thousands and sees a hospitalization rate 20-50x that of flu.

There have been 17 million medical visits as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

At least 370,000 of them have been hospitalized as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

These are not projections.

dunes runner wrote:

How many people have been exposed and/or infected can't be known.

Thus we have to use the total population, the same as is done with every other cause of death.

150 = US deaths attributed to covid19

331,002,651 = US population

= 1 death for every 2.2 million people

If I want to know my chances of dying in a plane crash I would divide the number of deaths by the number of people flying in a given period not by the population of a country. I can't die in a plane if I never fly and the more I fly the higher the odds.

And if I want to know the odds of dying in a car crash I would need calculate accident rates per country by miles driven.

Similarly, i can't die from the coronavirus unless I become infected. And odds of me becoming infected are related to how many people I come into contact with that have the virus.

You are right that we have no idea how many have been infected or exposed but that doesn't make it accurate or even meaningful to calculate the death rate based on the total population.

There have been 17 million medical visits as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

At least 370,000 of them have been hospitalized as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

These are not projections.

Irrelevant. Try to have your pea sized intellect grasp this simple analogy: 40 000 deaths from motor vehicle crashes per year in US. Add ANOTHER 40 000 to 100 000 major trauma victims from MVCs but concentrate them over 2 months and in population centers. The trauma services of hospitals would be overwhelmed since we don't have many excess hospital beds and trauma surgeons etc. So many of these excess and unexpected victims will be left to die by triage decisions.

Substitute in above analogy baseline flu (and other severe illnesses) and add unexpected wave of covid-19 victims needing a limited number of hospital beds, health care professionals and ventilators. Capacity to treat overwhelmed, so people that could have been treated left to die because they will not get full treatment.

It is very simple, and is going to happen based on the projected numbers. That is why NYC is getting ready to convert Javits convention center and hotels to makeshift hospitals.

It is also irrelevant at this point whether the true mortality rate is 0.3% or 3% if a large proportion the poplulation gets infected (which it will since no vaccine or treatment for foreseeable future). Either way large number of excess severe cases that will exceed hospital capacity.

Duh.

BlueNorther wrote:

There have been 17 million medical visits as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

At least 370,000 of them have been hospitalized as a result of the flu between 10/1/2019 and 3/7/2020.

These are not projections.

pea sized intellect

Don't bother. They just repeat the same 2 numbers like it's some profound discovery. Dunning-kruger

The expression goes that in a war the first casualty is truth. We are in a war. What we see here is morons coming, armed with statistics. But real viruses aren't beaten by the virus of bullsh*t.

Harambe wrote:

Dunning-kruger

Exactly, I'm glad that you are aware enough to identify what your real issue is. You keep coming back to post here in an attempt to convince yourself, and everyone else that you are of superior intellect. If you were really that smart and you really thought I was that dumb, you would completely ignore me as it would be beneath you to respond. The fact that you keep coming back to prove something demonstrates one of the hallmarks of Dunning-Kruger.

Congrats on the self DX and see you in a few minutes.

Armstronglivs wrote:

The expression goes that in a war the first casualty is truth. We are in a war. What we see here is morons coming, armed with statistics. But real viruses aren't beaten by the virus of bullsh*t.

17 million medical visits and 370,000 hospitalizations are not lies or bullsh!t. 3% death rate for COVID-19 is bullsh!t.

You will soon come around, just as soon as someone tells you what to say so you can repeat it here.

dink wrote:

You are right that we have no idea how many have been infected or exposed but that doesn't make it accurate or even meaningful to calculate the death rate based on the total population.

How is that not meaningful? Death rate per overall population is among the most useful and relevant statistics, it stops people from ignoring that only a small fraction of the population even had a detected infection.

As for per-case death rates, Germany has proven the upper bound for that is about .23%. 28 deaths out of 12,000 known cases. The real number is surely well below that because even with their genius engineering, the Germans aren't able to test everyone.

Facts Matter wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Dunning-kruger

Exactly, I'm glad that you are aware enough to identify what your real issue is. You keep coming back to post here in an attempt to convince yourself, and everyone else that you are of superior intellect. If you were really that smart and you really thought I was that dumb, you would completely ignore me as it would be beneath you to respond. The fact that you keep coming back to prove something demonstrates one of the hallmarks of Dunning-Kruger.

Congrats on the self DX and see you in a few minutes.

I live to rile up idiots on LRC. You underestimate my power. Nothing is beneath me.

Harambe wrote:

Facts Matter wrote:

Exactly, I'm glad that you are aware enough to identify what your real issue is. You keep coming back to post here in an attempt to convince yourself, and everyone else that you are of superior intellect. If you were really that smart and you really thought I was that dumb, you would completely ignore me as it would be beneath you to respond. The fact that you keep coming back to prove something demonstrates one of the hallmarks of Dunning-Kruger.

Congrats on the self DX and see you in a few minutes.

I live to rile up idiots on LRC. You underestimate my power. Nothing is beneath me.

Nice story, however, you seem to be very confused as to who is the fisherman ? and who is the fish. ?

Last I checked, it was you that bit on my line little Nemo. ?

Facts Matter wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

The expression goes that in a war the first casualty is truth. We are in a war. What we see here is morons coming, armed with statistics. But real viruses aren't beaten by the virus of bullsh*t.

17 million medical visits and 370,000 hospitalizations are not lies or bullsh!t. 3% death rate for COVID-19 is bullsh!t.

You will soon come around, just as soon as someone tells you what to say so you can repeat it here.

It is being forecast by epidemiologists that the US is now only a couple of weeks away from finding itself in the same situation as Italy - which, unsurprisingly, does not view its situation as just another flu epidemic - or even less than that.

I wonder what you'll be posting during the lockdown, or when it's your turn to become infected. I doubt your statistics will give you much comfort.

Stop with the name calling people. Just because someone views things differently and see things from a different perspective as you doesn't mean they are unintelligent or any other baseless conclusion you make. If you want to debate the "facts" (which that is almost a joke because everyone seems to have their own version of the "facts") then by all means, but stop with the childish name calling and attacking people because they are not line with your views or beliefs. This isn't nazi Germany people.

You must think it's cute to say things like I wonder what you will be posting during the lockdown.

You have no idea what is coming sir. When this is all over with as far as the pandemic goes it will be nothing compared to what is coming. We are headed towards a complete economic collapse and it will be far greater than the great depression. Additionally we are becoming more vulnerable to attack. If you think for one minute that Russia and China don't want to see our downfall then wake up this isn't see who can be the most write. No one is winning when this is all over with. FACTS!

Yes I already know....it should be right not write

Iran had a goodish day - their numbers of daily new deaths have been around the same for 3-4 days now. And their daily new cases have been around the same for 7 days.

I think they report data once per day and don't adjust it as the day goes, so that number is probably final.

The hope is that the disease burns its way through the old and weak and then stalls. This data point does not contradict that. Doesn't prove it, of course.

I'm watching closely the combined daily deaths in Iran, Italy and Spain. They seem to be slowing, which. if continued, would suggest the curve in China, Japan and SK is replicable in Europe and North America.

interesting new hope here - that we could soon have a test for those who have anti-bodies to the virus. So we would know if we are, in theory, immune and can go about our business.

That could start opening things back up again.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-antibody-idUKKBN21539O?fbclid=IwAR3tZp6I8ayxgBHnl7P5ntW4FlUie9RjO10nHLDtZeO_i1YAXU5_SMqPd8I

agip wrote:

Iran had a goodish day - their numbers of daily new deaths have been around the same for 3-4 days now. And their daily new cases have been around the same for 7 days.

I think they report data once per day and don't adjust it as the day goes, so that number is probably final.

The hope is that the disease burns its way through the old and weak and then stalls. This data point does not contradict that. Doesn't prove it, of course.

I'm watching closely the combined daily deaths in Iran, Italy and Spain. They seem to be slowing, which. if continued, would suggest the curve in China, Japan and SK is replicable in Europe and North America.

And India, with 1.2 *Billion* people, doesn't seem to be impacted at all by CV: 197 cases and only4 deaths. ?

it is the biggest con in history

skeptic11 wrote:

it is the biggest con in history

It's more of a media frenzy and politicians have jumped on the band wagon. The high numbers of fatalities is happening in clusters few and far between around the world. But this seems to be irrelevant to the band wagon jumpers, who don't realize how gullible they are.