What's Purrier's best event? 1500 or 5k?

You are correct. She beat Koko in the mile but would lose by 30 seconds to her in a 5000.

I agree with Wejo. Jon's argument is that she doesn't have a good kick in tactical races but that remains to be proven or disproven. Using her 800 time from last year is a bad way to measure her kicking ability. Furthermore, Hassan might not do the 1500 and might not be at the same level without Salazar so we might not see the clownworld times we saw in the 2019 final.

We will have a better take on this after the weekend, but right now she looks like she is within spitting distance of a 1500 medal, but might be more than three spitting-distances of a medal in the 5000. Same deal as with Houlihan '19, who is about a year ahead of her in progression.

Her last 400 was 61.x, in a fast race, over a second faster than either KoKo or Reekie. And she looked serene the entire way.

Houlihan closed her last 300 in Doha at 62.2 pace. Closing is not an issue for Elle, period.

YMMV wrote:

Her last 400 was 61.x, in a fast race, over a second faster than either KoKo or Reekie. And she looked serene the entire way.

Houlihan closed her last 300 in Doha at 62.2 pace. Closing is not an issue for Elle, period.

Thank hou. Jon's not going to like these facts!

Yah 800 times are not a good predictor at all of kicking ability even if not dramatically improved, so it's even less relevant in the case.

Only time will Tell but I’m with wejo on this one.

In a championship race I like her odds. Remember that Houlihan did not get a medal last year and she ran the best that she could in that race. Preposterous clownshow race by Hassan. It was disgraceful.

We'll know by late Saturday afternoon -- if not by Friday night -- just what kind of a kick Purrier has.

However, have to wonder if the Bowerman Babes will use tactics in either/both races to try to get Purrier boxed in with a lap to go.

If she does get boxed and can't catch up, boy, is there going to be a lot of venom spewed on this board.

As for the 5k, her coach has already stated he had Elle do the 5k last year for strength -- just as Houlihan did her first two years out of college -- then plans on bringing her back to the 1500 this year like Shelby has done since 2018.

Because the women's 1500 is so loaded, it only makes sense that Purrier and Houlihan and Simpson and virtually all the other 1500 runners will look to the 5k as their backup event in case they don't make the 1500 team.

analyst wrote:

Yah 800 times are not a good predictor at all of kicking ability even if not dramatically improved, so it's even less relevant in the case.

Jenny Simpson won a WC, as well as numerous other medals, using her kick, and without having broken 2:00. Nick Willis has a full complement of medals with a relatively sluggish 1:45.5 PR.

wejo wrote:

YMMV wrote:

Her last 400 was 61.x, in a fast race, over a second faster than either KoKo or Reekie. And she looked serene the entire way.

Houlihan closed her last 300 in Doha at 62.2 pace. Closing is not an issue for Elle, period.

Thank hou. Jon's not going to like these facts!

Meh, this comparisons are always flawed. Take the Doha 5k e.g.: Koko closed in 60.0 (and Obiri even in 58.4). Does that mean that Koko is clearly a better closer than Purrier? Obviously not, as we saw last weekend.

On the other hand, that might further the argument against the 5k - the leaders were 30 seconds ahead of Purrier and still pulled of crazy fast last laps (which almost nobody really noticed due to the Hassan discussions).

PS: Shelby's actual last 400 in Doha was 61.8, she faded the last 100 like almost everyone (only Tsegay maintained her speed).

Lurker wrote:

wejo wrote:

Thank hou. Jon's not going to like these facts!

Meh, this comparisons are always flawed. Take the Doha 5k e.g.: Koko closed in 60.0 (and Obiri even in 58.4). Does that mean that Koko is clearly a better closer than Purrier? Obviously not, as we saw last weekend.

On the other hand, that might further the argument against the 5k - the leaders were 30 seconds ahead of Purrier and still pulled of crazy fast last laps (which almost nobody really noticed due to the Hassan discussions).

PS: Shelby's actual last 400 in Doha was 61.8, she faded the last 100 like almost everyone (only Tsegay maintained her speed).

Meh, Koko closed that 60 off of a 70-second previous lap. Apples/oranges. 61.8 is about what Purrier ran. Dead heat.

Bring on this race.

68s, not 70s. Get your facts straight. And I made that comparison only to show that these comparisons are inherently flawed and borderline useless, especially when you cherry pick certain data points and then try to put your personal spin on it.

Very little can be said after one race, especially not about different distances.

Purrier beat Reekie and Reekie had beaten Muir two weeks earlier, so Purrier should be able to run sub 1:58 800m and give Wilson a serious challenge? Not very likely but more likely than 14:25 5k because she beat Koko who ran 14:26...

Purrier ran 4:02 14:58 last year and the 5000m mark did not seem weak and was run in good conditions in Doha. So with her improvement indoors, I'd give her a 14:40-45 in the 5k.

Cf. Weightman, Eilish McColgan or Debues Stafford who ran 4:00 or even 3:56 (I guess we will need a few more seasons to learn if the Doha final was as extraordinary as it appeared or if some of these times will be replicated) and 14:44-46 times. Koko is obviously a different kind of runner, an absolute beast for hard running long distances like Ayana (who else would do something like running 14:26 practically solo), only comparably faster in the 1500m,

So, Purrier does have better chances in the 1500m because there is at least a chance that a finale will not be as crazy as Doha but not a purely fastest last 400-600 after slow start. And lots of things can happening, cf. Muir "failing" in two subsequent 1500m finals in 2016 and 2017 despite being extremely good.

Whereas there is almost no chance that someone not in ca. 14:30 form will come close to medals in 5k. Because there will always be someone to push to such kind of pace eventually for fear of losing to the kickers.

Jo72 wrote:

Very little can be said after one race, especially not about different distances.

And yet here we are, with much being said.

The real problem is that pretty much anything can be said after one race because every story can be made to fit that one race: "She's the next Houlihan, focusing on the 5000 to get strong." "Meh, it was a time trial, paced perfectly by Koko." "She's peaking too soon." "It's the new spikes." "It can't be the spikes." "All those big PRs? It has to be EPO." "If anyone's clean, it's Elle."

This weekend should be fun.

I thought she first came to prominence in the steeple?

Yes, all Africa will take the Oly medals..but she could post a close to NR there, no?

(See Simpson, Jenny for comparables)

SirReggie wrote:

I thought she first came to prominence in the steeple?

She did. She ran steeple until her senior year, but ran faster and had more success as a miler than as a steepler -- she won the indoor mile her senior year, and ran the 2nd fastest mile in an NCAA meet. (For whatever reason, she didn't do anywhere near as well in the 1500, where she was 7th at NCAAs, and only had a 4:10 pb.)

One thing that people forget is her age. She turns 25 next week, even though she's still in her second year as a pro. Houlihan was 25 when she had her breakout year.

It's annoying how people are so shocked that Purrier ran so fast.

Purrier was 9th at WORLD JUNIORS in the steeplechase in 2014, in her first year EVER steeplechasing.