Saw that Haile Gebrselassie ran 1:49/3:32 in 1997 and 1:50/3:31 in 1998. Made me wonder what the slowest 800 time is to break 3:30. If Geb could only run 1:50 while in 3:31 shape, could someone run 1:49/3:29? 1:48/3:29? Farah ran 1:48/3:28 but I feel like everyone says he could've run way faster.
Bonus question: Will Nico Young break 1:47 or 3:30 first? Please note that neither is not an option.
Dang I kept looking at Geb's results and his 1998 was crazy. 3:31i/4:52i/7:25/7:26i/12:39/26:22. I imagine most or all of those were WRs. Looks like the only race he lost was that 1:50i 800. Truly the Nico Young of his generation.
Peach Pit wrote:
Dang I kept looking at Geb's results and his 1998 was crazy. 3:31i/4:52i/7:25/7:26i/12:39/26:22. I imagine most or all of those were WRs. Looks like the only race he lost was that 1:50i 800. Truly the Nico Young of his generation.
If you put Geb in todays times with super shoes, pacing etc he’s easily:
3:29/4:48/7:20/12:33/26:12
Peach Pit wrote:
Saw that Haile Gebrselassie ran 1:49/3:32 in 1997 and 1:50/3:31 in 1998. Made me wonder what the slowest 800 time is to break 3:30. If Geb could only run 1:50 while in 3:31 shape, could someone run 1:49/3:29? 1:48/3:29? Farah ran 1:48/3:28 but I feel like everyone says he could've run way faster.
Bonus question: Will Nico Young break 1:47 or 3:30 first? Please note that neither is not an option.
I am going to say Nico has the following potential:
400m: 47.00-.99
800m: 1:44.00-.99
1000m: 2:16.00-.99
1500m: 3:29.00-.99
Mile: 3:47.00-.99
2000m: 4:49.00-.99
3000m: 7:27.00-.99
2 Mile: 7:58.00-.99
5000m: 12:47.00-.99
10000m: 26:29.00-.99
Peach Pit wrote:
Saw that Haile Gebrselassie ran 1:49/3:32 in 1997 and 1:50/3:31 in 1998. Made me wonder what the slowest 800 time is to break 3:30. If Geb could only run 1:50 while in 3:31 shape, could someone run 1:49/3:29? 1:48/3:29? Farah ran 1:48/3:28 but I feel like everyone says he could've run way faster.
Bonus question: Will Nico Young break 1:47 or 3:30 first? Please note that neither is not an option.
Here are a few classic "official" PR's from the sub 3.30 club...
Caleb Ndiku 1.52.2
Narve Nordas 1.58.63
Stewart McSweyn 2.01.48
Clearly those "PR's" don't mean anything but the one guy who I would bet my money on being the slowest is Lamecha Girma. He's not far under 3.30 at 3.29.51 and when he ran that he had a pretty clean race able to key off both J.I and Kerr so I don't know if there is too much more there. But his endurance and threshold are clearly incredible - especially as a sub 7.24 3000m guy and a sub 13min 5000m guy.
My guess is that if Girma could run much faster than 1.48.5 I would be surprised. The other guy I thought long and hard about was McSweyn and could he run under that but I think he might be able to. He has got to the same time over 1500m as Girma and is a similar runner in that he has excellent 3000m ability too at 7.28.02. But he paced that Silesia race and was just under 1.51 at 800m and then was able to break 56 for that third lap so I have to think he is a 1.48 flat guy give or take a few tenths. I think him and Nordas are probably at a similar ability over 2 laps.
Can someone break 3.30 with a 1.49 800m PR? To break it you have to be capable of running at least 1.52.5 through 800m. I mean I personally find it unlikely - a 3-3.5 second differential between 800m ceiling and interim split seems really tight no matter how strong over 3000/5000m you are.
As for Nico Young? If he gets a start in the right field this season he can break 3.30. I see this happening before a sub 1.47 for him.
I'd say 1:46 or 7 absolute slowest
Honestly I think it requires 1:47.xx ability to break 3:30. And I’m not ready to say Nico Young can break 3:30 this season if he gets in the right race. I totally recognize that he’s made a big jump and is running at a truly world class level, but come on, he just ran a 3:34.56 PR, 3:29.99 is still no joke, and I still think Young is better at 3k/5k/10k.
And yeah, Peach Pit, Gebrselassie was pretty good. Sounds like you ought to brush up on some history.
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Clearly those "PR's" don't mean anything but the one guy who I would bet my money on being the slowest is Lamecha Girma. He's not far under 3.30 at 3.29.51 and when he ran that he had a pretty clean race able to key off both J.I and Kerr so I don't know if there is too much more there. But his endurance and threshold are clearly incredible - especially as a sub 7.24 3000m guy and a sub 13min 5000m guy.
My guess is that if Girma could run much faster than 1.48.5 I would be surprised. The other guy I thought long and hard about was McSweyn and could he run under that but I think he might be able to. He has got to the same time over 1500m as Girma and is a similar runner in that he has excellent 3000m ability too at 7.28.02. But he paced that Silesia race and was just under 1.51 at 800m and then was able to break 56 for that third lap so I have to think he is a 1.48 flat guy give or take a few tenths. I think him and Nordas are probably at a similar ability over 2 laps.
Can someone break 3.30 with a 1.49 800m PR? To break it you have to be capable of running at least 1.52.5 through 800m. I mean I personally find it unlikely - a 3-3.5 second differential between 800m ceiling and interim split seems really tight no matter how strong over 3000/5000m you are.
As for Nico Young? If he gets a start in the right field this season he can break 3.30. I see this happening before a sub 1.47 for him.
I think you underestimate how hard 3:30 is…
The reality is we have no idea how peaked a lot of guys are for the under distance races. It is one thing to run an 800m as a workout. It is another to spend 4 weeks running fast 200s ,doing some of those hard speed endurance workouts and the dropping the mileage in half for a week.
I would be surprised if McSweyn struggles to get much sub 1:49. But he also talks about never running fast in practice. Have him focus on the 800m for a 2 months and 1:47 seems likely.
most sub 3:30 1500 runners did no more than dabble in 800 and would have gotten nowhere near their potential at it.
The best dabblers were ones like Kiprop and Cram who went 1:43 easy enough. Just about as fast as the Coe and Ovett types, who were really the last of their types, except the rare Makhkoufi's and such.
Nico Young - how many medals?
Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:
Here are a few classic "official" PR's from the sub 3.30 club...
Caleb Ndiku 1.52.2
Narve Nordas 1.58.63
Stewart McSweyn 2.01.48
Clearly those "PR's" don't mean anything but the one guy who I would bet my money on being the slowest is Lamecha Girma. He's not far under 3.30 at 3.29.51 and when he ran that he had a pretty clean race able to key off both J.I and Kerr so I don't know if there is too much more there. But his endurance and threshold are clearly incredible - especially as a sub 7.24 3000m guy and a sub 13min 5000m guy.
My guess is that if Girma could run much faster than 1.48.5 I would be surprised. The other guy I thought long and hard about was McSweyn and could he run under that but I think he might be able to. He has got to the same time over 1500m as Girma and is a similar runner in that he has excellent 3000m ability too at 7.28.02. But he paced that Silesia race and was just under 1.51 at 800m and then was able to break 56 for that third lap so I have to think he is a 1.48 flat guy give or take a few tenths. I think him and Nordas are probably at a similar ability over 2 laps.
Can someone break 3.30 with a 1.49 800m PR? To break it you have to be capable of running at least 1.52.5 through 800m. I mean I personally find it unlikely - a 3-3.5 second differential between 800m ceiling and interim split seems really tight no matter how strong over 3000/5000m you are.
As for Nico Young? If he gets a start in the right field this season he can break 3.30. I see this happening before a sub 1.47 for him.
Not sure I agree on Girma. He looks pretty dang smooth running fast. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has pretty normal speed for an endurance-based guy who runs 3:29. Certainly he seems more explosive than McSweyn. Stewie would be my pick.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Honestly I think it requires 1:47.xx ability to break 3:30. And I’m not ready to say Nico Young can break 3:30 this season if he gets in the right race. I totally recognize that he’s made a big jump and is running at a truly world class level, but come on, he just ran a 3:34.56 PR, 3:29.99 is still no joke, and I still think Young is better at 3k/5k/10k.
And yeah, Peach Pit, Gebrselassie was pretty good. Sounds like you ought to brush up on some history.
I agree that 1:47 is probably the bare minimum. 3:30.00 is 1:52.00 pace. Is it possible to average 1:51-high for 1500m when you’re only good for 1:48 over two laps? I don’t know, but I kind of doubt it.
No disrespect to Nico Young, but I’d put his chances of breaking 3:30 this season somewhere around zero. I don’t expect him to run that fast in his entire career honestly.
3:30.00 is 1:52.00 pace. It’s possible someone who can run 3:29.99 could only run 1:47 but realistically I’d guess 1:46 is the absolute minimum speed needed to do it. Maybe someone who is a high 12:30s type guy with some speed could be at 1:47 and 3:29.9 but it’s sort of tough to imagine. That would be barely breaking 54.0 for 2 laps and being able to go 55.9 for 3.75 laps. Hard to imagine
Peach Pit wrote:
Saw that Haile Gebrselassie ran 1:49/3:32 in 1997 and 1:50/3:31 in 1998. Made me wonder what the slowest 800 time is to break 3:30. If Geb could only run 1:50 while in 3:31 shape, could someone run 1:49/3:29? 1:48/3:29? Farah ran 1:48/3:28 but I feel like everyone says he could've run way faster.
Bonus question: Will Nico Young break 1:47 or 3:30 first? Please note that neither is not an option.
Was it Brendan Foster (???) that claimed Mo ran a 1:45 800m time trial, I saw it at a press conference on YouTube. 1:45 and a Monaco 3:28.8 sounds realistic
nitpick wrote:
3:30.00 is 1:52.00 pace. It’s possible someone who can run 3:29.99 could only run 1:47 but realistically I’d guess 1:46 is the absolute minimum speed needed to do it. Maybe someone who is a high 12:30s type guy with some speed could be at 1:47 and 3:29.9 but it’s sort of tough to imagine. That would be barely breaking 54.0 for 2 laps and being able to go 55.9 for 3.75 laps. Hard to imagine
Your estimate fits Nick Willis quite well: 1:45x/3:29.
Stewy Mcsweyn is slower than you all think. He's the greatest converter ever from base speed to 1500m. It's mind blowing to think he's more competitive at 1500m than 5,000m.
Daniel Komen was the man for the job. I would be surprised to see him run 1:47, given how much worse his 1500 was than his 3k (3:29 vs 7:20). By comparison, the only man to run close to his 3k ran 3:27-low in the same season, with approximately 1:45-1:46 ability. 1:48/3:29 seems about right for Komen, and that is probably the slowest 800 one could have while running sub-3:30.
I'd guess 1:48.0 is possible with 3:29.9. Hard to believe 1:49.0.
1'46"44
my two pennies wrote:
Daniel Komen was the man for the job. I would be surprised to see him run 1:47, given how much worse his 1500 was than his 3k (3:29 vs 7:20). By comparison, the only man to run close to his 3k ran 3:27-low in the same season, with approximately 1:45-1:46 ability. 1:48/3:29 seems about right for Komen, and that is probably the slowest 800 one could have while running sub-3:30.