Sub3bet wrote:
I had a discussion with some friends, while being a bit intoxicated, about running a sub 3 marathon. Their point of view was that it is pretty much impossible if u have not been running seriously for many years. I said that I believe its possible to reach in 1.5 years with serious training. I ended up making bet that I will run Copenhagen marathon in under 3 hours in 2021.
I am a very casual runner, I have been running 1-2 times per week for 1.5 years, never longer than 5k. Some periods I have not been running for a few weeks.
Right now I can run 5k in about 22 minutes.
Im 32 years old, male, 1.86 m height, weight is about 80 kg.
If I commit myself 100%, what are my chances?
This actually isn't a bet but a good goal. You never know, you might end up liking it and run for life. It took me 1 year of training cycles which included 3 marathons to go sub 3. I do believe I was able to do it on the 2nd but me being so excited and lack of knowledge on proper fueling during a race, I cramped up so bad and ended up with 3:0x. Went through half about 1:28ish if I can remember. Only was running about 50-55 miles a week training for the first 2. 3rd race I went up to about 70ish miles a week.
I came from a 0% running background. I'm talking about not even thinking about running. Prior to running I was seriously overweight. Once I was able to get my weight down, my first 5km was 20min on about 10-12 miles a week. Occasionally up to 15. This included a 4 mile tempo each week at about 6:30-6:40. Back then that felt like absolute death!
Prior to the sub 3 I had only ran a 1:27 half but by that time my 10k had drop to low 39min and sub 19min for 5k. Just needed to get my mileage and long runs up. I think those were key. No speedwork either. Just as short fartlek each week.
It can be done and you can be richer. Like everyone else says, ez your way into the mileage. My first marathon I used as a gauge (3:0x) . Didn't know what to expect.
If you got some talent piece of cake.