I had a discussion with some friends, while being a bit intoxicated, about running a sub 3 marathon. Their point of view was that it is pretty much impossible if u have not been running seriously for many years. I said that I believe its possible to reach in 1.5 years with serious training. I ended up making bet that I will run Copenhagen marathon in under 3 hours in 2021.
I am a very casual runner, I have been running 1-2 times per week for 1.5 years, never longer than 5k. Some periods I have not been running for a few weeks.
Right now I can run 5k in about 22 minutes.
Im 32 years old, male, 1.86 m height, weight is about 80 kg.
If I commit myself 100%, what are my chances?