Dyestat Drama - Dudek ranked #1a and Tuohy ranked #1b

Kev2 wrote:

That statement would make more sense if Touhy was consistently running under 16 minutes but that is not the case--she ran 15:37 once well over a year ago. Melany Smart ran around the same time as Jessica Lawson from Stanford--who also ran 4:11 1500 --faster than any hs girl has run in recent years. The top ten finishers at NCAA would probably be way ahead of any of the NXN or Footlocker championships based on comparable track performances etc.

This is all so silly. Aside from the mention of Lane, now we use 1500 PR to assess performance in 6K XC? Tuohy was certainly at least comparable to Lawson in 3,000 (actually her PR is 10 seconds faster), and Tuohy has more strength, less speed than Lawson, at least as of now. Saying she could have been 10th in NCAA right now does not seem a stretch. BTW Tuohy has run a 5,000 M race on the track once and only once as far as I know, so who knows how consistent she would have been. But it seems likely last January she had another race in her well under 16 minutes (when she ran 9:01).

Tuohy had a bad day at NXN by all accounts due to nerves, poor sleep before the race. And she still won. The speed ratings would suggest at her best she would have won by 20 seconds, or more. How a head to head with Dudek would have come out is anyone's guess at this point.

wow lots of off base thinking here:

1 - very few on LR think Tuohy will beat the Africans, make the US Olympic Team, or win an NCAA championship.

2 - North Rockland is neither a historically good NY girls program, located in upstate NY,(it's downstate about 20 miles fron NYC) or running high mileage. The program has a decent history in Track and Field but in distance running happened to luck into the pairing of Tuohy and Morales as 8th graders. (They will have a tough season next year) I'm 99% sure they are the only 2 girls from NR to ever qualify for FL or NX nationals.

3 - what most of us do think is that Tuohy was the best girls XC runner in the US in 2019, and on most days would have beaten any competitor in the US over 5k XC. (we're even willing to concede that if VdK and Dudek ran at NXN, they would have been right in the mix for that finishing sprint and might even have won)

4 - we hope Tuohy makes a well informed college choice that makes her happy and she has a nice 4-5 year running experience and gets a good education to use later in life

5 - at her current performance level she can already be top 20 at NCAA XC, and score at her conference meets and NCAA meets in track

6 - if she keeps improving, she can do even better and may even qualify for the Olympic Trials in 2020, or more likely in 2024

Good post you know your stuff

I think starliper made a big mistake at Foot Locker

Half a mile out she was in perfect position just behind the leaders

Instead of seizing the lead and going for the big runaway Victory she should have just stayed on the shoulder of the leader and planned for a big last kick

Dudek still might have beat her butt she's got really strong sprinting speed so she might have been able to Win it that way

Anyway be interesting to see what the times are in track this winter

Is Tuohy going to run a pro 3K and take a shot at 9 minutes. Is any other girl going to be close to that level.

The fact that Tuohy bounce back so strong at Club Nationals is a good sign and hopefully she was running kind of conservative this season

Yeah I think most people thought touhy was going to Peak for nxn

Put up something like a 173 speed rating

Most of the other girls either stayed the same or improved a little off their best speed rating

Tuohy was way down the fact that she bounced back strong a Club Nationals means it was probably just a bad day for her

Puffer wrote:

Yeah I think most people thought touhy was going to Peak for nxn

Put up something like a 173 speed rating

Most of the other girls either stayed the same or improved a little off their best speed rating

Tuohy was way down the fact that she bounced back strong a Club Nationals means it was probably just a bad day for her

So basically you didn’t look at the results from the season versus the other NY elite girls. Tuohy was absolutely not “way down” at NXN. She ran the same at NXN as she had been all year. Y’all need to stop treating these speed ratings as gospel.

Many posters on here act like it's undeniable that Touhy should be #1. It's very argumentative. It depends on which factors mean more.

I put more stock into championship races. Runners base their season around and only peak for a few, if not one race. Dudek losing a regional or barely winning another doesn't mean much to me. It's a qualifying race. If you run 55 mpw all season and your know you're a shoe in to qualify, would you run 30 miles the week of the regional meet? Not saying I know anything about Touhy or Dudek's tranining approach toward NXN/FLN, but I want to see who has the "highest" peak because I know both are likely to peak for this race.

In terms of outright performance Dudek simply ran better, 16:45 on Balboa is FAST, 3rd all time, and a much higher speed rating than what Touhy produced at NXN. You could argue even though Touhy peaked for NXN she had an off day and still won. Impressive, but I don't think anyone would deny that if she faced Dudek head to head with that off day, Dudek would have certainly won. And if that was the case, this thread would be entirely different.

Touhy ran impressive times this year, but I feel as though people are putting stock into what she's done the previous 2 years and these rankings only pertain to this season. And okay, she got 2nd at club nat's with the "pros", but lets not act like this was US XC Nat's last year w/ Huddle, Houlihan and other BTC athletes, Thweatt, etc. No disrespect to the pros in that race, but it wasn't the strongest field. Dudek got 5th facing the best U20 athletes across all of Europe and still came back to produce one of the best races in FL history.

I'm not saying Dudek should be 1 and Touhy 2, but before you guys think Touhy is just undeniably #1 this season, realize that this was a very hard decision for Dyestat to make that resulted in them not really making a decision at all.

Actually 5th or 6th all time. Great time but that course runs very fast in certain conditions, especially when its very dry. Just look at the string of 1980s times. Three girls ran sub-17 in the same race. And you cannot compare different races run in totally different conditions. And how do we know Dudek could have handled the mud and rain? Hart came in 50th at nxn. And again by what measure. Starliper lost by 17 at nxn and by 1 second at FL.

Nor can you discount a lose. She was going all out and got beat. In the other regional she went all out and piped Hart at the line. Its an L.

Don't see the point of comparing the U20 race to the USCN race. But the USCN had runners with pbs in the 1520s in the 5000. No one in the U20 race had a pb below 16:00.

I trust bills analysis more than the comparison to three other New York runners

And even by that comparison she was down for nxn

Anyway she had hit 170 speed ratings jogging to the finish line

She certainly looked ready to have her best performance at nxn and hit 173

But she hit 163

She was stressed out jet-lagged and probably dealing with women's issues

Speed ratings aren't gospel but they're the best measure we have unless you want to do some better statistical analysis

Bill puts a ton of work into those. I've looked at the numbers. It's a rigorous mathematical analysis

If you want to do a more rigorous analysis let's have it but that comparing 2 previous races with three other Runners is not it

You're just being silly to try to argue based on that incredibly limited data that it was not a bad day. Have you even looked at speed ratings in the amount of work Bill puts into it

It's like a hundred times more comprehensive than that limited data.

But it did not run fast that day. Check the results of the guys' race. It was a fair day but 3 girls ran extraordinary times.

My bad on the all-time placing. The course was definitely fast, but the conditions are like that nearly every year. All I'm saying is, it's clear Dudek peaked specifically for U20 Champs and FL Nat's. When you have back to back races like that you sacrifice regular season and qualifying races and train through them.

She got 5th at U20 in a race where the people who beat her have run 1500's 4:10-4:15, 3k's 9:00-9:15, and 5k's 16:00. She then took a plane from Poland to California (assumed jetlag) and beat the 3rd place runner by 10 seconds who herself would have won footlocker almost every year but a few. This was 6 days after Euro's. That's an insane double.

While NXN was muddy, it's still relatively flat. Balboa park might have had great footing, but it's easily a 30 second handicap to a flat course even with fantastic conditions. 16:45 to 16:15 at a min. 17:18 won NXN, you would give the NXN girls over a minute handicap due to the mud?

In regards to USCN.. Who is in peak shape for a XC race in early December? Not pro runners when the whole year is centered around the olympic trials in late JUNE. HS runners? Yeah, probably.

Most agree with you thatTuohy had a very bad day. But it appears that Dyestat and many people here, believe that national rankings should put most weight on the national races. Dudek outperformed Tuohy when it counted most. Tuohy outperformed Dudek during the season.

Moranic. Dudek lost her regional and then lost to a bunch of 16:0x girls at Euros. She barely outsprinted Marlee who was 5th at NXN. Tuohy went undefeated and beat a bunch of sub-16 women. It is no contest.

Balboa looked like a running track. If you saw the course previews there is a reason I think it was going to run fast for the race. It was bone dry and little grass. It has a hill but it is gradual with a long downhill. The NXN course was in great condition but got destroyed by the weather and the boys race. It was more of a xc course. It has hills and some nasty sharp rises, lots of grass and an unfortunate amount of mud. Different type of race.

Honestly Tuohy is getting a bad rap because the expectations are so high

Dudek did not outperform Tuohy at Nationals

Yes her speed rating is higher

But you would expect a little bit of a higher speed rating when you're in really nice conditions

Honestly when you're standing around in 45 degree super rainy weather dealing with the ceremony of a national meet it's going to impact you a little

Tuohy led the race from start to finish

And they both won by small margins

Aesthetically things get kind of skewed because everyone was expecting Tuohy to dominate

So when she was looking back a lot and she had to get out a win. People are kind of down on it

And Dudek had a nice closing finish and it was a bit of a surprise

If you flip their season around and Dudek was the girl who won every race from start to finish was undefeated and dominated every race but one

Everyone would say she was the clear winner

This is a clear example how how expectations can skew perception

I would bet the impact of conditions was very severe this year when you combine the cold pounding rain through the race on top of running 5K on soft grass with puddles and mud in many spots in wet spikes. The Portland course is also not exactly a pancake other wise you would see times there on the boys side like you see on some of the MW or CA courses. Methner ran only slightly slower in winning at Balboa Park fairly comfortably vs losing at NXN. And he was in the first race at NXN with the better conditions.

I get that you hold Bill's analysis capabilities above your own and most people should if they aren't naturals at math. I am a natural at it so I tend to do things on my own just like Bill does things on his own. You don't know me, but have been exposed to Bill for years potentially so makes sense you'd trust him over me. That's just human nature so can't blame you.

I used Bill's data below to show you that in fact Tuohy and the other elite NY girls ran remarkably consistent relative to one another and relative to speed ratings when in races where they were going against one another. Tuohy's higher speed ratings came when either nobody was anywhere near her or it was just Walters 20 seconds back followed by an abyss.

What's important about these races is that the girls were actually racing head-to-head, which is a much better predictor of future head-to-head racing than a speed rating derived when either none of the competition was there or only one other top competitor was there. Note that not a single NY girl listed below had their highest or lowest speed rating at nationals, be it NXN or FL, so again it's not fair to say Tuohy had a bad race when her speed ratings were just as consistent as both Walters and Rauber from the start of the season to the end.

Speed Rating Range With Significant Head-to-Head Competition: Tuohy, Walters and Rauber were in top shape by mid-October while Schulz and Baloga still needed a few more big efforts to find their form.

162.04 - 164.83 (2.79 pt range): Tuohy

156.40 - 159.53 (3.13 pt range): Walters

154.92 - 156.60 (1.68 pt range): Rauber

144.80 - 152.27 (7.47 pt range): Schulz

143.59 - 152.20 (8.61pt range): Baloga

Oct 12 Manhattan College Invite 2.5 Miles

13:33 - 162.04 - Tuohy

13:45 - 157.26 - Walters

13:52 - 154.92 - Rauber

14:19 - 144.80 - Schulz

14:22 - 143.59 - Baloga (raced to :20 win in separate division)

Nov 16 NYSPHSAA 3 Miles

15:36 - 164.83 - Tuohy

16:01 - 156.40 - Walters

16:14 - 152.27 - Schulz

16:14 - 152.20 - Baloga

16:01 - 156.60 - Rauber (raced to 1:44 win in separate division)

Dec 7 NXN 5K

17:18 - 162.87 - Tuohy

17:28 - 159.53 - Walters

17:38 - 156.13 - Rauber

17:56 - 150.17 - Schulz

Dec 14 Footlocker Nationals 5K

17:40 - 150.57 Baloga

Faster than ever wrote:

Dudek outperformed Tuohy when it counted most.

She beat Tuohy?

When was this?

Dude the point I'm making is that bill is speed rating every race

In your initial post you only looked at 4 runners and three races total

Again it's a simple point. Bill speed rated every race they ran for the whole season

Katelyn Tuohy had a 168 a 170 and a 168 her three races before nxn

In all three of those she easily jogs to the Finish and didn't seem to be trying that hard

You would expect she was ready for a big 172 to 175 speed rating performance

Yet she came up with a 163 presumably because of stress and jet lag and maybe women's issues

This isn't rocket science this is like basic math

Bill did comprehensive speed ratings on the whole season for every Runner

Now granted Tuohy averaged a 165 for the season so technically a 163 isn't that far down for her

But again her final three races were high 160s and 170 so you would think she was trending up and was going to hit you know at least a 172

A lot of other Runners had their best day

Sydney thorkelson in 163 averaging 157 on the year

Taylor ewert 163 averaging 157 on the year

Claire Walters 161 averaging 155 on the year

Starliper 159 averaging 1 55 on the year

Basically every other girl in the top 10 ran several points higher than a year average

Now if you want to speed rate every girl and every race they did this year I guarantee you you will find that Tuohy was a little bit down and the other girls were a little bit up for nxn

That would be in Fantasyland where a lot of posters seem to preside