Want to project who makes it to NCAA XC? Run your own simulations with Bo Waggoner's program!

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  • your benevolent dictator

    LetsRun.com

    Member since 08/12/2009.

    4,466 posts. Last post 4 days ago.
    4 years ago 11/12/2019 1:33pm EST

    Every year, we at LetsRun have projected the qualifiers for the NCAA XC championships on Regional Friday with the help of Bo Waggoner's computer program, which he has kindly shared and updated for us every year.

    This year, Bo has built his own site, which means that for the first time, everybody can use the program. It's awesome.

    Thanks to some help from The Stride Report's Garrett Zatlin, Bo has all the results from the 2019 season in a database. He then inputs that data into his computer program, which selects the teams.

    What this means is that you can project any scenario you want and see which teams make it to NCAAs based on those outcomes at regionals. The site is super easy to use, and is a valuable resource for college XC coaches, athletes, and fans. So check it out and enjoy it this week!

    http://xcquals.com/

    BTW, if you do find any errors, be sure to let us know as Bo can easily update the program.

  • deeeethr33333

    Anonymous Poster

    4 years ago 11/12/2019 2:17pm EST
    re: LetsRun.com

    can we get this for d3 tho.....

  • jkl32

    Anonymous Poster

    4 years ago 11/12/2019 6:34pm EST
    re: LetsRun.com

    My understanding was that the "B-team" rule was no longer in effect this year, is that correct?

  • yeah just go to your local hs

    Anonymous Poster

    4 years ago 11/12/2019 7:36pm EST
    re: deeeethr33333

    deeeethr33333 wrote:

    can we get this for d3 tho.....

    Oh, just go to your local high school

  • LRC guru

    Jonathan Gault

    Member since 09/25/2014.

    2,674 posts. Last post 16 hours ago.
    4 years ago 11/14/2019 3:03pm EST
    re: yeah just go to your local hs

    Bump ahead of tomorrow's meets.

    One interesting note: based on the current regional projections, the Oklahoma State men are projected to miss NCAAs for the first time since 2002. Plenty can change tomorrow, of course...

  • devils advocate

    Member since 11/10/2009.

    166 posts. Last post 5 months ago.
    4 years ago 11/14/2019 3:25pm EST
    re: jkl32

    Hey, Bo here. Wanted to say thanks again to The Stride Report for collecting season results this year! (I'd be up for helping someone set up similar things for d2 and d3 ... but are the qualifying rules the same?)

    Looks like the B-team rule is still in effect. They clarified that to get a point, you have to beat an "A" team. But you can beat them with your "B" team and you'd still get the point. An "A" team has at least 4 people finish the race who are on the regional 7-person roster.

    Rulebook:

    https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/crosstrack/d1/crosscountry/2019-20D1XCC_PreChampsManual.pdf

    There's one part that's less clear to me. At a regional meet, if two teams tie in total points, we break the tie with the "best of 5" rule (top runner vs top runner, etc). But what happens during a regular season meet if two teams tie in points? I remember a previous rule that said they stay tied, except for the purpose of determining national qualifying points when we can use the best-of-5. But now it seems totally unclear. Is it up to each meet to decide how to break those ties?

  • No, ties are by pairwise comparison

    Anonymous Poster

    4 years ago 11/15/2019 1:14am EST
    re: devils advocate

    No, ties are by pairwise comparison. Look at the Big Ten meet where you had 144, 144, 145. the teams were ordered, not indicated to have tied. And since the selection criteria depends on points from placings I am quite sure that you will not see ties for place even with ties for points. Note that in the multi-events that the same pairwise comparison (for each event) procedure is now used for places (at least that is my understanding).

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