200 hills as a predictor

Your ability to do hills has little to nothing to do with if you can run X time.

Races, tempo runs, long runs and interval sessions are better predictors.

That’s like saying I can do all my form drills perfect after a 30 min run what’s my mile?

Makes 0 sense.

Ok I do 30 min tempos at 7:00 pace.

I do long runs of 10 miles at 7:40 pace.

I do super long runs (only do these once every month) of 15-18 miles at 8:30 pace.

8:30 to 9:00 is my easy pace where I do most of the running,

yes sub-20 is definitely doable if you do 30 min at 7:00 pace as long as the 5k course is not full of hills

Probably 20:30-21:00 based on that tempo pace. All out mile will be a better indicator though.

Ok thanks. My tempo pace varies on how I’m feeling, my asthma has been bad so my tempos have been 7 pace but when it isn't bad it is closer to 6:40 or 6:50 pace. The cold weather and pollution triggers it and obviously it’s only gonna get colder so yeah I think you’re right the guy who said maybe just under 21. I think I was in sub 20 shape a month ago but obviously my breathing has been bad since.

Hills cannot predict 5k and they aren’t great at predicting mile either. Holding a certain pace for 200m on a hill is probably akin to doing that same pace for 300m on a flat so let’s just assume you did 15 x 300m at 5:45ish pace with 1:15 jog rest FLAT.. I would say that if you can complete that workout I would have you down for sub 6 at the very least and 5:40 at the very most so 5:50 should be doable. You have the ANAEROBIC strength but this workout says nothing about your AEROBIC strength.

5:50 flat

19:5x in perfect conditions if the course is flat and possibly short

20-20:30 in standard conditions in normal weather

21 give or take 15s in hilly conditions with bad weather

Thank you. Should I go out at 6:25 pace and see how long I can hold it? Or would that just make me die and set me up for failure? I’m really gunning for sub 20 and will be highly disappointed if I don’t get it.

If you do your long runs @ 7:40, for 10 miles, then unless your natural speed is very low, sub-20 should be fine. I went under 20 with a much slower 10 mile long run, and not particularly great speed

hwieniawski wrote:

If you do your long runs @ 7:40, for 10 miles, then unless your natural speed is very low, sub-20 should be fine. I went under 20 with a much slower 10 mile long run, and not particularly great speed

If I was to race a HM then 7:40 would probably be the pace I’d hold for that distance so that 10 miler 7:40 is a hard tempo effort. Although it isn’t unusual for me to do long runs of 90 min at around that pace when I’m feeling good. My speed isn’t great. My best 200m is 32.6 and my best 400 is 69.8 so do you think that would be enough speed for a 5:50/19:59?

5:50 is doable.

What did you run?