So what the hell is supposed to happen at the men's marathon trials? 1 spot locked and 2 up for grabs? (Rupp not the lock)

don't forget Chris Derrick !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

Rupp is a lock. He is not 100% yet. He went out at 2:06 pace and still almost made it home in 2:09. Given his injury 4 more months will make a huge difference. Plus if he is running to make the team and not compete with the worlds best at a major he’ll be fine. Alberto will have him ready to go, despite his ban.

Korir is not a lock. He has the best shot after Rupp but there are a number of guys who could beat him if he is not completely on his game. Barring major injury or catastrophic race day issue Rupp will make the team. No one else is above a 60% chance, it would not surprise me too see Korir blow up on race day. If Ward were not running New York his odds would be very high but that close together scares me.

Rupp is now in the timespan Salazar encountered in mid-83, when the world ran away from him at Rotterdam, and something was clearly wrong.

His Fukuoka moment will come in the race he attempts to run before the Trials, but things will also go sideways.

Then at the trials, the mighty Rupp will find he's not even the fastest American. The more things change.

https://postimg.cc/H8cw4xgv

I pick Lagat for the 3rd spot if he's with the leaders at 23 miles.

Korir, Demoor, Walmsley.

Stinson will outkick Rupp for fourth, then make it to Tokyo after Seth can't decide what shoes to wear.

I wonder if Rupp would call it a career if he fails to make the Olympic team.

Les wrote:

I wonder if Rupp would call it a career if he fails to make the Olympic team.

I think he'll stick around for the 2021 world championships in Eugene at least

“Lock”? A race is never a lock, too many factors involved which is why it’s so exciting.

Jim Walsmey, Leonard Korir and Scott Fauble. In that exact order.

Adeert wrote:

“Lock”? A race is never a lock, too many factors involved which is why it’s so exciting.

Especially the marathon. Every runner aiming for the top 10 is on a razor's edge when it comes to being fit and being a little overcooked.

Alberto is smart, I am pretty sure he is using messenger pigeons to send workouts to Galen. Gotta go very low tech now.

£££££ wrote:

Jim Walsmey, Leonard Korir and Scott Fauble. In that exact order.

Fauble hasn’t been running too well as of late, although there’s still plenty of time before the trials. I would pick someone from the field in the 2:10-2:11 range over him so far.

Rupp went out in 1:02 high for the half in chi town and still was able to hold 5:0Xs at the end with heavy calf pain. Pretty sure if his legs hold up, he is a lock.

Given Rupp's year leading into the trials, other top contenders would be wise to surge on him after 25K and see what he does.

Actually, Rupp hired Alex and Alejandro Salazar as his new coaches.

My money is on Walmsford.

Korir, Ward , Walmsley , Rupp, Fauble

Nothing is locked up.

ya wrote:

Rupp went out in 1:02 high for the half in chi town and still was able to hold 5:0Xs at the end with heavy calf pain. Pretty sure if his legs hold up, he is a lock.

Barring injury, Rupp and Korir are as close to locks as there can be with the current crop behind them. (One of the weird things about the sport is that there is a dearth of news about the current status of athlete's recovery from injury -- did Rupp suffer a serious injury or was it a passing thing.)

I say they are locks because I can't think of anyone else in the race that can make an early move that they can't go with. In other words, a "Stinson" pace is just an honest effort for Rupp and Korir.

Or, on the flip side, I can't see anyone in the field going with them if they try to bust the race open late. Kind of like Rupp dropping Meb at Mile 23 in the 2016 Trials.