Givetallugot wrote:
I’m 29. Training only 60 miles a week off 6 days. Long run consistently at 20. Times this year have been 15:25 5k and 1:11:10 solo half. My workouts have been 6-7 mile tempos at half marathon pace and 4x1 mile treadmill repeats at 5:00 with 4 min rest.
I think I’m in 2:30 full marathon shape. I’ll find out soon. I realize my mileage is very low compared to many who run similar times. I know I’ll never qualify for the Olympic Trials.
How realistic is it for me to run sub 2:25?
I'm going to change my answer from YOLO to the a more detailed analysis:
1) Your 5k and HM times off 60mpw suggest 2:30 potential, but in reality the most likely outcome if you were to run one now would be 2:30 pace through 18-20, followed by the typical crater of an undertrained marathoner, resulting in 2:35ish or worse (possibly even dnf). IF you were already training 80-100mpw and had those other PR's, 2:30 or slightly under would be much more likely. It follows then if you start training 80-100 now and your HM does not improve correspondingly, then you're probably still looking at 2:27-2:30ish. If your HM improves below 1:10 with the extra volume, 2:25 starts looking more realistic. The old-school yardstick of HM time * 2 + 5 min = marathon time isn't necessarily perfect but still holds up fairly well so long as the person does proper marathon training.
2) Your additional comments on this thread about not enjoying training alone are not a positive sign for marathon success.
3) Your comments about post-collegiate burnout may explain point #2, and separately, hit quite close to home for me and probably quite a few others on here. In my case, after a couple years of post-collegiate effort and a change of life venue (moved to CO), I took up skiing, mountain biking, and other related mountain sports before eventually returning to competitive running at age 33 (in a somewhat different arena - MUT). So I get it. But here's the catch - a break from running could be a great thing to improve your long-term outlook, however, at 29 you're at your prime in the next couple years. Big dilemma - tough sledding to train all-out if you're not totally into it, but if you take several years off and come back later you may have missed your absolute peak.