Kupricka (sp). Why doesn't he spell his name the way he pronouces it?
Kupricka (sp). Why doesn't he spell his name the way he pronouces it?
Had no idea either. It's ridiculous the spectrum of his talents.
JWalms also beated (sp) Diego Estrada (27:30) in high school at the biggest midseason high school cross country race, Mt. SAC Super Sweeps (girls winner at event was Jordan Hasay). Made the winning gap on the downhills. Interviewed by Sully.
https://www.flotrack.org/video/5086695-jim-walmsley-and-sully
http://events.mtsac.edu/ccinvite/oldsite/results/2007/hs/62.pdf
For those who haven't seen this, skip to 10:30 to watch the last 3 laps. It shows that he has always liked to go big in races, not just in ultras. He's wanting to do the equivalent of this at Trials. Hopefully he'll be fit enough to make it interesting. Also shows he is a lot more talented than his college PRs indicate.
https://www.flotrack.org/video/5378080-m-5k-h02-walmsley-1352-2012-stanford-invite
Primo Numero Uno wrote:
Jimmy jimmy wrote:
If he plays his cards right, he is capable of 2:11:30 and a top 3 spot to make it to Tokyo. I think most would agree that if he puts in a solid road marathon specific training block, he can be in 2:11:30 shape.
The reason I think he will be top 3 is looking at Magda Boulet. Shes won western states once or twice I believe, and has had varying degrees of success with other ultras like UTMB (5th). She also ran under 32 on track for 10000m and had lots of success with the marathon making the womens team in 2008. While the situations are slightly different because men's and womens talent pools are different, Jim walms and her look pretty similar on the ultra scene on paper; some blow ups, but generally consistently placing in the top of the fields or winning ultras and both went to D1 college and had success.
The ultra community is definitely a smaller talent pool than the marathon, but Magda proves that not "any decent marathoner" can come in and dominate. She was second at the olympic trials and ended up 5th at UTMB so theres some heavy hitters in ultras. I think JW may be one of those talents in ultras that could really show up in the marathon if he committed 6 months out.
Didn't you start this exact same thread a month ago? Now we're getting troll re runs. Kudos for getting so many bites on round 2.
Believe it or not, I actually haven't posted a similar thread before. I will not lie, this post was about 60% trolling because I think its funny how people who supposedly dont care about him will argue for pages on threads.
Do I actually think he will make it? probably not
But Ill sure as hell be rooting for him at the trials
Torrent of Awesome wrote:
JWalms also beated (sp) Diego Estrada (27:30) in high school at the biggest midseason high school cross country race, Mt. SAC Super Sweeps (girls winner at event was Jordan Hasay). Made the winning gap on the downhills. Interviewed by Sully.
https://www.flotrack.org/video/5086695-jim-walmsley-and-sullyhttp://events.mtsac.edu/ccinvite/oldsite/results/2007/hs/62.pdfFor those who haven't seen this, skip to 10:30 to watch the last 3 laps. It shows that he has always liked to go big in races, not just in ultras. He's wanting to do the equivalent of this at Trials. Hopefully he'll be fit enough to make it interesting. Also shows he is a lot more talented than his college PRs indicate.
https://www.flotrack.org/video/5378080-m-5k-h02-walmsley-1352-2012-stanford-invite
You can't cherry-pick races where someone beat a better runner in HS. There are guys that beat Nenow in HS that would have been lapped twice if they ran against him in a 10000 a few years later. People can argue that he could run much faster now, but his 10000 PR is still 29:09.
Unless his half-marathon PR is soft, he has zero chance of making the team. Rupp's marathon PR pace is faster than Walmsley's half. Walmsley could run the equivalent if a PR for the first half, but Rupp, Ward and Fauble could easily stay with him if they chose to.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
You can't cherry-pick races where someone beat a better runner in HS. There are guys that beat Nenow in HS that would have been lapped twice if they ran against him in a 10000 a few years later. People can argue that he could run much faster now, but his 10000 PR is still 29:09.
Unless his half-marathon PR is soft, he has zero chance of making the team. Rupp's marathon PR pace is faster than Walmsley's half. Walmsley could run the equivalent if a PR for the first half, but Rupp, Ward and Fauble could easily stay with him if they chose to.
Why are we repeating arguments that have already been made in the last page of this thread? Of course his HM PR is soft for many reasons that have been repeated by multiple people in this thread and others. His 10,000 PR was soft. His 5000 PR was soft. Not saying he could hit those times with his current training, but they were soft relative to his raw ability at the time. Videos of both those track races are on Flotrack. The only collegians to beat him in that 10,000 - which was a race, not a time trial situation - were a guy that a bit later ran 26:52 and another guy who was the dominant NCAA cross champion a few months later. His times achieved may not be the same as Fauble and Ward, for the simple reason that he didn't continue on the track/road path after college. He just didn't run enough of those races when in top form to get dragged to fast times. But his raw running talent is very similar.
American men in recent years, excepting a few like Rupp and Hall (and now Ward and Fauble with their recent 2:09s) have underachieved in the marathon stepping up from fast track and half marathon times compared to the Japanese and some other nations. With that relative marathon underachievement, it makes me think that approaching it from the opposite direction of ultras moving down vs. track moving up, could have someone end up in near the same place, especially with dudes, Ward, Fauble, and Walmsley, that are comparable in raw running talent.
The ultra fan boys are hilarious. A person's PRs are their PRs until they prove otherwise. You can't claim (like you have in the past) that his 13:50 something is really a 13:30 something. What's next, is his 64:00 really a 59:00 (does that mean the other 26 athletes that finished ahead of him are actually world record holders, or do the adjustments only apply to him?), is his 29:08 worth a 27:00? If you are going to make up times anyhow, why bother racing in the first place? Why not just be that guy that claims to have run a 4:00 mile on a training run back in boot camp.
joedirt wrote:
The ultra fan boys are hilarious. A person's PRs are their PRs until they prove otherwise. You can't claim (like you have in the past) that his 13:50 something is really a 13:30 something. What's next, is his 64:00 really a 59:00 (does that mean the other 26 athletes that finished ahead of him are actually world record holders, or do the adjustments only apply to him?), is his 29:08 worth a 27:00? If you are going to make up times anyhow, why bother racing in the first place? Why not just be that guy that claims to have run a 4:00 mile on a training run back in boot camp.
First of all, I'm not an ultra boy. I've done one, but I'm not even a marathoner or half marathoner.
A PR is a PR, but if you are making projections, you would use all data to see if he's run it one time vs. a bunch of times. Most races people that people do, if you don't suck, are tactical, not time trials.
For instance my marathon PR is 2:54. That sucks, I know. But my averaging training pace before that marathon was literally hobby doggy jogging, 10-11 minute mile average pace, (often 4-15 minute pace, hard to imagine for many, I know), only a handful of runs faster than even 9:00 pace in the months before the race. Plus I was 43 at the time. I have good arguments that 2:54 isn't indicative of my running talent. How about this. You make projections on what a lifetime best 2:54 guy should run at age 50 in, say a 10K. I'll bet you big $$$$$ that I'd better your projections.
*often 14-15 minute pace.
Torrent wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
You can't cherry-pick races where someone beat a better runner in HS. There are guys that beat Nenow in HS that would have been lapped twice if they ran against him in a 10000 a few years later. People can argue that he could run much faster now, but his 10000 PR is still 29:09.
Unless his half-marathon PR is soft, he has zero chance of making the team. Rupp's marathon PR pace is faster than Walmsley's half. Walmsley could run the equivalent if a PR for the first half, but Rupp, Ward and Fauble could easily stay with him if they chose to.
Why are we repeating arguments that have already been made in the last page of this thread? Of course his HM PR is soft for many reasons that have been repeated by multiple people in this thread and others. His 10,000 PR was soft. His 5000 PR was soft. Not saying he could hit those times with his current training, but they were soft relative to his raw ability at the time. Videos of both those track races are on Flotrack. The only collegians to beat him in that 10,000 - which was a race, not a time trial situation - were a guy that a bit later ran 26:52 and another guy who was the dominant NCAA cross champion a few months later. His times achieved may not be the same as Fauble and Ward, for the simple reason that he didn't continue on the track/road path after college. He just didn't run enough of those races when in top form to get dragged to fast times. But his raw running talent is very similar.
American men in recent years, excepting a few like Rupp and Hall (and now Ward and Fauble with their recent 2:09s) have underachieved in the marathon stepping up from fast track and half marathon times compared to the Japanese and some other nations. With that relative marathon underachievement, it makes me think that approaching it from the opposite direction of ultras moving down vs. track moving up, could have someone end up in near the same place, especially with dudes, Ward, Fauble, and Walmsley, that are comparable in raw running talent.
The belief on this thread seems to be that a relatively mediocre 5/10 guy can focus on ultras for awhile and become so mentally tough that he can drop down to the marathon and make the Olmpic team despite his comparatively limited natural ability for the distance. There's no precedent for this and it's not going to happen.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
The belief on this thread seems to be that a relatively mediocre 5/10 guy can focus on ultras for awhile and become so mentally tough that he can drop down to the marathon and make the Olmpic team despite his comparatively limited natural ability for the distance. There's no precedent for this and it's not going to happen.
My whole argument bring up the Japanese is that our guys doing the marathon coming up from 5/10 and HM have NOT been accomplished at the marathon, in fact notably under performing. Maybe 4 guys that will be at OTs (Rupp, Ward, Fauble, maybe Ritz), but that leaves room for top 10, top 5, since there's always chance involved. Is the marathon really closer to 5/10 or is it closer to ultras like Walmsley's 5:50 at Lake Sonoma 50 mile? That's what will make the OTs intriguing.
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