NewtotheSouthSide wrote:
Daniels gives 32:41 a 2:30:55 marathon. The shorter races indicate much faster than 2:45 or 2:40. The long runs look in line with what someone would do in that range though. Have you hit any longer tempos at 6:00 pace or faster? The 2x4 @ 5:50 is good but a lot of 2:39-2:45 runners could probably hit that. Can you do 12-16 @ 6:00 pace? What's your half marathon at?
I would think you can run in the mid-2:30s but maybe the training is geared towards the shorter stuff? No reason not to go out in 1:19 at Boston and see if you can negative split it.
Daniels gives too much credit to 10k times. Rule of thumb:
You need a
34 min 10k to break 2:40
33 min 10k to break 2:35
32 min 10k to break 2:30
31 min 10k to break 2:25
30 min 10k to break 2:20
29 min 10k to break 2:15
28 min 10k to break 2:10
For the vast majority of runners, if they don't have a 28 min 10k, their threshold (~1 hour speed) will not be strong enough to complete a marathon in 2:10. That's why many elites first try to get 28 flat or break it, before they transition to a marathon.