Katelyn Tuohy is NOT as good as Mary Cain (not yet)

Stay focussed wrote:

They should concentrate on long term plans eg Olympics, not being top school runner.

Also, how come these threads gushing about school athletes are always about little girls? Doesn't this strike anyone as a little bit odd? I can't remember a SINGLE THREAD about a schoolboy sensation. Or video links featuring him.

How many historically exceptional guys are running this year?

tuohycain wrote:

I see many people saying how Katelyn Tuohy is the greatest ever, while she is absolutely amazing and a historic talent, she does not measure up to what Mary Cain was, at least not yet.

Katelyn's PR in the 3200m is 9:47 outdoor. Cain's PR in the FULL two mile was 9:38, INDOORS.

Katelyn's mile PR is 4:33 outdoor. Cain's mile PR is 4:24, again INDOORS. The only race in which Katelyn surpassed her was the indoor 5000m where she ran 15:37.

Cain also has the national record in the 800m in 1:59, which Katelyn has run nowhere near. So on the high school level I'd say Katelyn is not equivalent to Mary Cain, although she may be by the time she graduates.

But also, maybe it's just Katelyn is more of a 5000 (or even 10,000) runner while Cain was geared towards 2 mile and less

Why do you care?

What is the value of a 'debate' that will be decided in 10 years?

All this speculation on the actual / possible / potential careers of children , is not healthy for them or for you.

Get back in the basement and get a better hobby

To that point, I went thru some historical results. She was 4th in the NY state indoor 1500 as a 7th grader and seemed to have lead the race most of the way from the splits. Her best time of that year (4:36) would have won the race. Improved to 4:24 as an 8th grader, 4:18 as a 9th grader and 4:15 a 10th grader. Her improvement in longer distances is of course greater. I would say she qualifies as exceptional. But she is improving less and less in the 1500.

Jo72 wrote:

Let's hope Tuohy at 22 will be better than Cain at 22 and not bother too much about the time in between. The obsession with teenage records is often not fruitful and for each Zola Budd one probably has three or more Mary Cains with amazing times at 15-17 and not much afterwards.

I EXPECT Tuohy to have a long career at a high level, like for example Lydia Cheromei, Tirunesh Dibaba, Meseret Defar, It is a myth that because you are good at a fairly young age, that you can't be good as you get older, Cheromei won World Juniors in Cross Country at age 13, a couple of weeks ago she ran a 2:22 World Masters record in the Marathon.

Tirunesh Dibaba ran 14:49 for 5000 at age 16, Won the World Championships at 17, a couple of months ago she ran a 2:18 Marathon.

Lots of examples of runners who were good for a lot of years, Johnny Grey ran the first of his 26 Sub 1:44 for 800's at 24, Ran 1:43.36 at 35, and ran his final sub 1:44 at age 36 or 37

Steve Scott was also a top runner for OVER a Decade.

Tuohy will likely be running UNDER 2:20 for the Marathon when she is in her 40's, as everything improves, so if Cheromei can run 2:22 at age 41, certainly the training and diet will be improved in 25-30 years, likely means Tuohy will be faster than Cheromei is at the same age.

Tuohy = an improved and more talented runner than Cheromei, T. Dibaba, M. Defar, V. Cheruiyot etc. (All runners who were good young and are having long careers at a high level).

A lot of Posters had given up on Jordan Hasay now she is the 2nd fastest American Woman Marathoner EVER and she is still improving even Joan Benoit Samuelson predicts she will Smash Kastor's 2:19.36 AR, Everyone in running has ups and downs even Tuohy and J. Ingebritsen will have some bad times or even years, but the cream rises to the top eventually.

For someone to say this, they are showing that they are missing the mark. If you have to look up why, look up Michael Stember, look up why he is so well-respected by runners, and why he is in the running hall of fame. Also, note his age when he did it. Even younger achievements matter. Sometimes forever.

Jo72 wrote:

Let's hope Tuohy at 22 will be better than Cain at 22 and not bother too much about the time in between. The obsession with teenage records is often not fruitful and for each Zola Budd one probably has three or more Mary Cains with amazing times at 15-17 and not much afterwards.

Stoppit Smith wrote:

For someone to say this, they are showing that they are missing the mark.

If you have to look up why, look up Michael Stember, look up why he is so well-respected by runners, and why he is in the running hall of fame.

Also, note his age when he did it.

Even younger achievements matter. Sometimes forever.

Jo72 wrote:

Let's hope Tuohy at 22 will be better than Cain at 22 and not bother too much about the time in between. The obsession with teenage records is often not fruitful and for each Zola Budd one probably has three or more Mary Cains with amazing times at 15-17 and not much afterwards.

Michael Stember ran 1:46.20 for 800 and 3:35.11 for 1500, The Criteria to get in the Running Hall Of Fame is 2 GOLD Medals in Globals (World Championships/Olympics) AND 1 World Record (At a STANDARD Distance), The World Records in his events are 1:40.91 by Rudisha and 3:26.00 by El G. So no he is not in the hall of Fame.

Kaitlyn's parents value the wisdom and experience of her high school coach so she remains very well guided.

On the other hand, Mary's parents did not value Mary's high school coach's experience and his outstanding record and instead enlisted the help of a coach living 3,000 miles away.

tuohycain wrote:

I see many people saying how Katelyn Tuohy is the greatest ever, while she is absolutely amazing and a historic talent, she does not measure up to what Mary Cain was, at least not yet.

Katelyn's PR in the 3200m is 9:47 outdoor. Cain's PR in the FULL two mile was 9:38, INDOORS.

Katelyn's mile PR is 4:33 outdoor. Cain's mile PR is 4:24, again INDOORS. The only race in which Katelyn surpassed her was the indoor 5000m where she ran 15:37.

Cain also has the national record in the 800m in 1:59, which Katelyn has run nowhere near. So on the high school level I'd say Katelyn is not equivalent to Mary Cain, although she may be by the time she graduates.

But also, maybe it's just Katelyn is more of a 5000 (or even 10,000) runner while Cain was geared towards 2 mile and less

Cain sucks then and now.

Tuoey would use Cains singlet to wipe her ass after beating her in any race and then give it to Cains mom to serve at their Christmas buffet and then gratuitously thank her for the opportunity to pick it clean.

You can literally see Cain ran faster times...on an indoor track. If Cain' sucks by your logic, then Tuohy's times must be total trash. Since you are saying someone FASTER than her sucked.

douglas burke wrote:

Tuohy will likely be running UNDER 2:20 for the Marathon when she is in her 40's, as everything improves, so if Cheromei can run 2:22 at age 41, certainly the training and diet will be improved in 25-30 years, likely means Tuohy will be faster than Cheromei is at the same age.

Please bet me with this in mind. We’ll have the brojos hold our cash. You said it’s “likely” so you’re clearly confident - I’ll take 1-2 odds.

I bet 100$, you bet 200$ - winner keeps all.

Please respond ASAP since you are very confident.

The only example provided so far is Hasay of an American prodigy who continued to develop. Yet we can start with Cain and provide several other names of ones who did not. Therefore, it is not insulting for people to provide their opinion that Tuohy is at her peak.

douglas burke wrote:

Jo72 wrote:

Let's hope Tuohy at 22 will be better than Cain at 22 and not bother too much about the time in between. The obsession with teenage records is often not fruitful and for each Zola Budd one probably has three or more Mary Cains with amazing times at 15-17 and not much afterwards.

I EXPECT Tuohy to have a long career at a high level, like for example Lydia Cheromei, Tirunesh Dibaba, Meseret Defar, It is a myth that because you are good at a fairly young age, that you can't be good as you get older, Cheromei won World Juniors in Cross Country at age 13, a couple of weeks ago she ran a 2:22 World Masters record in the Marathon.

Africans are not as prone to the puberty curse.

Africans are just fast and get discovered because of it. Americans who show promise are always wealthy kids who have the resources to become very good very young. That’s Cain, Webb, Tuohy, Verzbicas, Hasay, Ping, Lane, and Decker.

douglas burke wrote:

....

I EXPECT Tuohy to have a long career at a high level, like for example Lydia Cheromei, Tirunesh Dibaba, Meseret Defar, It is a myth that because you are good at a fairly young age, that you can't be good as you get older, Cheromei won World Juniors in Cross Country at age 13, a couple of weeks ago she ran a 2:22 World Masters record in the Marathon.

Didn't realize this about Cheromei, but I looked it up. Pretty incredible.

33:20 for track 10,000 (in 1990!!!) 13 year old

15:17 and 31:41 as a 15 year old

14:53 as an 18 year old

14:46 as a 20 year old

8:29 and 14:47 as a 23 year old

Seem to have moved to the roads after that.

47:02 15k as a 27 year old

Peaked at 1:07:26 (half) and 2:21:30 as a 35 year old

Still running 2:22:11 (a couple of weeks ago)

Absurd to compare a legit phenom like Tuohy to someone like Dibaba, who ran her best "teenager" times as a Rosa-sauced 20-something.

In 1992, she was the bronze medalist at the World junior x country championship.

Who were ahead of her?

Paula Radcliffe and Wang Junxia.

4f4r5 wrote:

Kaitlyn's parents value the wisdom and experience of her high school coach so she remains very well guided.

On the other hand, Mary's parents did not value Mary's high school coach's experience and his outstanding record and instead enlisted the help of a coach living 3,000 miles away.

Most of Cain's HS PRs were in open meets against pros or junior world championships.

This may change over the next year, but seems Tuohy's coaches (and parents) have chosen not to put into races with professionals. That's probably a good thing.

douglas burke wrote:

Tuohy = an improved and more talented runner than Cheromei, T. Dibaba, M. Defar, V. Cheruiyot etc. (All runners who were good young and are having long careers at a high level).

le'ts chill out, she's 16.