Su Bingtian 100m progression

Basic SAFP:

2006 11.82 19yrs

2007 11.37 20yrs

2008 10.78 21yrs

2009 10.73 22yrs

2013 10.69 26yrs

1.04 improvement over 2 years, from around 550th in the world, to #1 in the world. The biggest 2-year gain so far. The 3 years leading up to and including 2006 were very consistent at 11.8, then boom, a 0.45 improvement in 1 year. Even if you used her PB of 11.63 from 2003 as a start point, her 2-year improvement was a staggering 0.85

Then later ends up at 10.69, one of the very-fastest-ever in history.

Basic Julien Dunkley:

2000 10.52 24yrs

2001 10.21 25yrs

0.31 improvement in 1 year. Starts out an all-comer's athlete, then 2 years later goes 10.09 for #19 in the world.

Basic Edwards:

1996 11.57 19yrs

1997 11.18 20yrs

2004 10.99 27yrs

0.39 improvement over 1 season. 7 years later improves to #6 on the season.

YES there are athletes who have tested positive and who have not exhibited this 1-or-2-season 0.50 improvement. Of course, I am using the 0.50 figure loosely--some improvement is greater, some is less.

Basic Hackett:

2007 11.66 18yrs

2008 11.40 19yrs

2009 11.26 20yrs

0.40 improvement over 2 seasons, from about 330th-340th in the world, to about 38th in the world. Did not advance to all-time greatness, stayed at 11.15 basic for a few years. 0.40 is around the standard progression, but failing to further improve to greatness makes her a weaker example.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Basic SAFP:

2006 11.82 19yrs

2007 11.37 20yrs

2008 10.78 21yrs

2009 10.73 22yrs

2013 10.69 26yrs

1.04 improvement over 2 years, from around 550th in the world, to #1 in the world. The biggest 2-year gain so far. The 3 years leading up to and including 2006 were very consistent at 11.8, then boom, a 0.45 improvement in 1 year. Even if you used her PB of 11.63 from 2003 as a start point, her 2-year improvement was a staggering 0.85

Then later ends up at 10.69, one of the very-fastest-ever in history.

Wasn't she busted?

Su is from the southernmost part of China, which has a similar climate and environment to that of coastal West Africa. Hardly any elite Chinese distance runners come from Guangdong and surroundings.

The best Chinese distance runners are all from the far north of China, or high altitude regions of western China similar to Ethiopia.

We see the same patterns of talent within China as within Africa.

Upper right groin issue and right foot issue from 200m curve running in past so I have limited his distance s to 120m to reduce injury potential. Even after 4x1 in Jakarta he had a flare up of old groin injury. We will move to longer distance this year and we went short to long in this training year. Hopefully next year we can continue to improve his race model and some conditioning factors we stayed away from this year to allow for sprint technique adaptations.

Randy H

Look right wrote:

Here is a progression of a well known doper...It's Ben Johnson...

The only suspicious improvement that he had was when he was 18 when he went from 10"6 to 10"2.

But that is normal at this age. Large improvements when a teen are common

I think this supports geezer’s case. 0.40 is pretty much 0.50, and 10.2 was really fast back in the late 70’s, but 10.6 was everywhere.

What was the wind for those runs, and were they basic SB’s? Details man.

Then you say large improvements like that are common, but describe that jump as suspicious. That don’t jive.

I was a decent sprinter and it took me 4 years to improve by about 0.3, to nowhere near world-class, and that was considered damn good.

Subway Surfers wrote:

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Basic SAFP:

2006 11.82 19yrs

2007 11.37 20yrs

2008 10.78 21yrs

2009 10.73 22yrs

2013 10.69 26yrs

1.04 improvement over 2 years, from around 550th in the world, to #1 in the world. The biggest 2-year gain so far. The 3 years leading up to and including 2006 were very consistent at 11.8, then boom, a 0.45 improvement in 1 year. Even if you used her PB of 11.63 from 2003 as a start point, her 2-year improvement was a staggering 0.85

Then later ends up at 10.69, one of the very-fastest-ever in history.

Wasn't she busted?

Yes.

6-month ban for oxycodone.

Basic Carina Horn:

11.83 - 2010 21 yrs

11.73 - 2011 22 yrs

11.80 - 2012 23 yrs

11.62 - 2013 24 yrs

11.24 - 2014 25 yrs

11.15 - 2015 26 yrs

0.56 basic improvement 2012-2014, or if you prefer, 0.47 basic improvement 2013-2015.

Went from being nobody, cruising along at 11.7 for #513-600 in the world, to #10 in the world at sub-11.

The 4 years leading up to and including 2012 were very consistent at 11.8, then boom, a 0.56 improvement in 2 years.

Hardloper wrote:

This thread got taken to Sprintgeezer University. These fools don't know who they were messing with!

? i pity the fool

Back to Carina Horn, it’s surprising that she thought she could actually get away with it forever. Looks like she went on the sauce years ago, I wonder if she was on it the whole time, or if she was able to ease off when she dropped that half-second. Fraser-Pryce is without a doubt on something this season, too.

While I appreciate SG’s observations and efforts (and I sincerely do), I would like to see more quality.

Somebody (other than me) should work up some stats on this half-second improvement over 2 years among sanctioned sprinters.

Sci Guy wrote:

While I appreciate SG’s observations and efforts (and I sincerely do), I would like to see more quality.

Somebody (other than me) should work up some stats on this half-second improvement over 2 years among sanctioned sprinters.

Hey Sci Guy—absolutely. It would be an easy undergrad honors thesis to do some data mining and stats—or in the US, probably easily a Master’s level undertaking. Someone (other than me😁) should do it!

So here we are in May 2021, the year after the 2020 Covid non-year, and Su has progressed to 9.92 basic, an improvement of 0.02 on his basic PB. Another data point in his slow and consistent progression.

Very nice 👍.

And now we have Richardson to add to the half-second list:

2017: 11.41

2019: 10.84

An improvement of 0.57, or 0.55 if you don’t account for 2019 celebration, over 2 years from also-ran to #3 in the world, and the 9th-best performer all-time.

She has gone on to lower it by a further 0.16, and is now tied with FloJo as the fastest basic performer all-time.

[quote]Randy Huntington wrote:

I will speak to this. You have no idea how stringent the rules are in China and how severe the punishment. Su takes his role as a role model for Chinese youth very seriously. Doping is not even on the table in any manner.

Gambling?

I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here!

BAM! 💥

Right on. With good wind you would have your mid/low-9.8 right now.

Perfect coaching. Strength to power, plugging power leaks, stiffer spikes, comfort at high-speed maintenance. EVERYTHING Su needed, and he has gotten all of it IMO, with maybe a touch more to go in maintenance.

Good for you that you have what appears to be a very disciplined athlete to work with. He is now one of the very-fastest 100m men in history who IMO there is no particular reason to believe has used. Heck, if he gets a good wind, he might go to the very top of my untainted list!

I’m really rooting for Su and Bromell to medal at the Olympics

Basic Ferdinand Omanyala:

2019 - 23 yrs - 10.44

2020 - 24 yrs - 10.36

2021 - 25 yrs - 9.87

A basic improvement of 0.57 over 2 years, from 729th place and obscurity in 2019, to 2nd place globally in 2021, a mere 0.01 behind the world’s #1 performer.

14-month ban, betamethasone.

He’s just another name on the men’s 9.80-or-better wind-legal list. Busted.

Omanyala, to not only 2nd-fastest globally that year, but to 7th-best all-time raw, wind-legal!😂

Sorry to say your post has tried very hard but hasn’t presented any statistically rigorous metrics by which his progression is any less similar to those busted for doping. Some examples would be to compare Kolmogorov distance for distributions or tests like Kolmogorov-Smirnoff or KL divergence etc. Otherwise the post just reads like a fan post that really really wants to believe.

Btw I have nothing against doping and am of the view that doping below the limit is totally fine, and even pushing the limit at your own risk but without getting caught means you are squeaky clean for all practical purposes and that is how I will choose to see that athlete. But the idea of statistical progression analysis to guess doping likelihood is nevertheless technically interesting to the nerd in me (though I remain unconvinced it’s doable with any measure of confidence to be practically useful for the sport).