Small Pond wrote:
Sub-6 is mind-boggling but it is still jogging pace for a 2:03 marathoner. It will never happen, but if the world's best marathoners ran the 100K it could turn out to be a very soft record.
Using the idea you presented, we could hypothesize that since this guy (Takahiro Sunada) is a 2:17 marathoner, if a 2:03 marathoner properly trained for the 100k, they should be able to run roughly 10% faster (100%-100x(2:03/2:17)). Which would equal a 100K WR of about 5:32:00.
However, if we applied the same idea comparing the WR marathoner's 1500m PB to the 1500 WR, we could make a similar claim. Hicham's 1500 WR=3:26. Eliud's 1500 PB=3:33. So if Hicham ran the Marathon, he should have run about a 1:58:57.
The reason this prediction does not hold true is that the precise talent mix that makes you a good miler, takes away from your marathon potential. Similarly, the things that make you a good marathoner, probably take away from your ultra marathoning potential. The talent needed for marathons and ultras probably has more overlap than the talent overlap for marathon and mile. But it's reasonable to predict that there is still a major gap in the talent needed to excel at the two events (marathon vs ultra).
I do think that if the East African's had the same training/motivation toward ulra's as they do for marathons and mid-d, then the ultra times would come down, but probably not by as much as you think. I would predict that the best East African's could bring the 100k WR down to about 5:55:00