Go Long wrote:
I've run Boston 5 times, a tad slower than you 2:54/1:19. It's a fast course if you get a good weather day and you play the course right. The key, especially for your first time, is not to blow your wad on the first five miles. It is SOOOO easy to go out too fast and waste all your training in that first 5 miles. The crowd will have you pumped up, it really is a steep downhill in many places, and you're feeling good on fresh legs after a taper. Don't do it, don't go out too fast.
My advice would be to make sure the first five miles you're around 10 seconds slower per mile than your goal pace. Even if you're trying to run slower than pace, it's difficult. People will be running by you droves, and it will produce anxiety. I'm sure you're used to being out in front of most races you've run, so this will feel really odd. But remember everyone standing in the corral with you has a similar qualifying time. Most of them will go out way too fast, and you'll see many of them walking in the later miles. If you pace it right, you'll pass most of them back once the hills kick in at mile 16. Miles 6-15 are pretty flat, so if you did go conservative the first five, you can easily make it up before the hills.
Sounds like you have a legit shot at 2:45. You should definitely hit 2:50. Depends on how much of a risk you want to take. And I hate to tell you but many times weather dictates your pace at Boston. Three of the five years I've run it, it's been in the 65-70 degree range which for me is way to hot to PR after training through winter. One year it was pissing down rain, 40 degrees with a headwind. And one year it was sunny and 40-50, which is perfect. I'd argue it's more difficult to get a good weather day at Boston than to conquer the course. Assuming a good weather day, I agree with the previous post, try and hit 1:23 for the first half, and then see how you feel. You're going to slow a little bit on the hills, but if you make it to the top of Heartbreak Hill at mile 21 in good shape, the last 10K is fast.
Starting conservative at Boston is definitely the way to go, but I think you need to take advantage of the downhill at least a little. It is very, very, very hard to negative split Boston - simply due to the layout of the course. I would run the first 5 miles at goal pace, maybe up to 5 seconds faster than goal pace, but definitely NOT any faster than that.
I also agree with what others are saying - you're in sub-2:40 shape for sure. We need clarification on that 22 miler - I know 2:30 guys that would struggle to hit 22 miles at 6:16 pace during heavy training weeks.