WEEK 5 UPDATE
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS
Tier 1
1. Donson-Cook-Gallardo, Carleton
Tier 2
2. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf
3. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf
4. Lucas Mueller, Carleton
5. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton
6. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf
Tier 3
7. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s
8. Evan Hatton, Bethel
9. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s
10. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas
11. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel
12. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus
13. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s
14. William Anderson, St. Olaf
15. Tris Dodge, Carleton
16. Paul Timm, St. Olaf
Tier 4
17. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline
18. Munir Isahak, Concordia
19. Cameron Meikle, Carleton
20. Alec Kirtley, St. Olaf
21. Seth Glidewell, St. Thomas
22. James Doherty, Macalester
23. Jake Lepak, Macalester
24. Fernando Benitez, Hamline
25. Erik Wicklund, Concordia
26. Sam Primozich, St. Olaf
27. Chris Boranian, Macalester
28. Spencer Grant, Macalester
29. George McGivern, St. Thomas
30. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton
31. Henry Boettcher, St. John’s
Tier 5
32. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel
33. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas
34. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s
35. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas
36. Erik Larson, Concordia
37. Scott Helstad, St. Thomas
38. Collin Kiley, St. Thomas
39. Riley Sandberg, Gustavus
40. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus
41. Frank Gustafson, Hamline
42. David Huffman, Bethel
43. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton
44. Nick Kerbeshian, Gustavus
45. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus
46. Ben Madigan, Gustavus
47. Tyler Bethke, Bethel
48. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus
49. Jack Colleran, St. John’s
Tier 6
50. Josh Halverson, Bethel
51. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester
52. Tony Duchenes, Hamline
53. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia
54. Dan Allen, St. John’s
55. Sam Jewson, Hamline
56. Justin Brakob, St. John’s
57. Nick Solheim, Concordia
58. Anthony Paladie, Hamline
59. Connor Haugen, Bethel
60. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s
61. Brandon Quibell, Concordia
62. Adrian Johnson, Macalester
Tier 7
63. Connor Haugrud, Concordia
64. Ben Roen, Hamline
65. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s
Tier 8
66. Alex Gordon, Macalester
67. Jonathan Meaden, St. Mary’s
68. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s
69. Isaac Tade, Augsburg
Tier 9
70. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg
71. Ryan Moore, Augsburg
72. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s
73. Tanner Moris. St. Mary’s
Tier 10
74. Greg Miller, Augsburg
75. William McLeer, Augsburg
76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg
77. Yasir Said, Augsburg
TEAM PREDICTIONS
St. Olaf (41 points)
St. Olaf’s performance at Eau Claire showed that they are going to be vulnerable at MIAC. Ketola and Lerdall ran well, but Henschel and Anderson were disappointing. Those two, as well as Timm, have top 5 potential. They also could end up outside the top 15, which I believe would cost them the title. Kirtley, Primozich, and Justin Furcich ran well, but the Oles will be in trouble if they’re counting on more than one of them to score.
Carleton (44 points)
Assuming DCG and Mueller were just resting and not injured, this was a great weekend for Carleton. Fast Tris Dodge finally showed up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that his evil twin won’t be back at MIAC. Cameron Meikle also raced for the first time in weeks. I’m assuming he is coming back from injury, so I expect him to improve significantly next race. I think Carleton has the talent to compete with St. Olaf, but they don’t have the same depth so there is no room for error.
St. Thomas (128 points)
St. Thomas didn’t run some of their top runners at Carleton, but I was impressed by how well the rest of the team ran, especially Glidewell and McGivern. Based on the strength of their depth, I think St. Thomas is the favorite to finish 3rd.
St. John’s (136 points)
Burgstahler ran very well at Eau Claire, finishing within 20 seconds of Ketola and Lerdall. I think he’s a top 10 runner, and Collins has top 10 upside as well. The Johnnies are strong through four runners, but they could be hurt by their 5th. If they can get a 5th runner into the 30s at MIAC, they have a great chance to get 3rd.
Bethel (140 points)
Bethel didn’t race their top runners this week, here are my comments from last week:
“I think Bethel is in a great position to finish 3rd at MIAC. They have two potential top 15 runners in Hatton and Lelinga, and their 3-5 should be close to the top 40. They also have a strong group of 6th-9th runners, who could also end up in their top 5. Right now they are my pick to finish 3rd, but there are several other teams that could beat them.â€
Macalester (151 points)
I’m very impressed by how well Macalester has performed so far this season. Assuming Doherty is healthy, they have a really strong pack of four runners. They are going to be hurt by their fifth, but Jarka-Sellers had his best race of the season at Carleton. His continued improvement will be the key to Mac’s success. I’m also a little concerned by how often Mac has been racing. They’ve raced four straight weeks, so I’m worried that they are going to be burnt out by MIAC.
Gustavus (180 points)
I’ve been waiting to see if any of the top 7 Gusties could break out and move up from the 30s into the 20s, and Stumbo did that and more. He showed that he could be a top 15 runner, but Gustavus will need a few more guys to improve to get into the top half of the MIAC.
Concordia (189 points)
Concordia didn’t race this week, here are my comments from last week:
“I am blown away by how well Concordia has been running so far this season., and I think they’re performance at Griak was their best of the season, although it is difficult to draw conclusions since Griak is such a challenging course and it was very hot. They have two top 25 runners, and solid depth behind them. I don’t think they have the same upside as some of the teams around them, but they have improved significantly and have a great chance to be top 5 at MIAC. “
Hamline (189 points)
Hamline didn’t race this week, here are my comments from last week:
“Hamline didn’t perform as well as I expected at Griak, but they were missing their #1 (Benitez) and their #5 (Duchenes) from their opener. Assuming those two are healthy, I still think Hamline has top 5 upside, but somewhere between 4th and 8th is more likely.â€
St. Mary’s (267 points)
Not a lot to be learned from St. Mary’s race this weekend, since they were racing against UMAC schools. O’Hare won by over 30 seconds, I think he’s the best runner in the MIAC that isn’t from Northfield.
Augsburg (359 points)
¯_(ツ)_/¯