first off, i think you're going about it wrong. no offense. unless you are already running 5:20-something in practice, that's a rough goal for now at 5:45. you just want to PR and if you want a carrot like 5-10 seconds carved off. like, i want to do 5:35 or 5:40. then 5:30, then chase your 5:20. to me the carrot loses pull if it's too far away. you want to believe you can do the next one and work to it. you don't want to get frustrated. even if the long term idea is drop 25 seconds.
second, in my area, big city, strong programs, 1600m, 5-flat to win conference, 5:10 to podium, 5:25 for points, 5:45 would win JV and be about 10th place varsity. as i understand it average D3 teams are interested in mid-5s, D1 walkons like 5:10ish, D1 scholarships like 5-flat. to understand why, high quality D1 conference 1500 this year was won at 4:15, podium 4:20, points 4:25. average d3 conference, 4:54 won 1500, 5 podium, 5:05 points.
add 20-30 seconds gets you 1600 times.
4:20 is not fast
Being a girl and never having run before you can likely, at least hopefully pick up seonds each year. I would recommend running Cross Country each year if you are not already. The extra training will really help. As far as what you can do, that is up to you and your willingness to put in the work. I have seen girl drop 40 or more seconds from freshman to Sophomore year, I have also seen the opposite and run slower. Pick a reasonable goal, hit that and reset another goal.
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