Here is a great article on polls.
..."First up is Robert Cahaly, from the Trafalgar Group polling organization. In 2016 he showed Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania going into Election Day. He also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won. Cahaly did not have Trump ahead in the key state of Wisconsin only because he did not poll Wisconsin."
"Cahaly’s method again held steady in the 2018 elections with Trafalgar pollsters correctly predicting Ron DeSantis’s gubernatorial victory in Florida, Rick Scott’s senate victory winning the Senate race there."
"...They were also right in predicting Senate outcomes in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Texas, and West Virginia making them the most accurate pollster of 2018 elections among those firms polling Senate and governor races."
"Independent pollster, Rich Baris, at People’s Pundit Daily, using different methods to mainstream pollsters, was also correct in predicting the 2016 Trump victory."
Rich contends that state polls were wrong because they were not weighted by education, and therefore under-counted non-college voters. In short, their voter samples were not accurately predicting the voter who was likely to turn out.
"Moreover, a lot of the mainstream poll results that dominate/create headlines, tend to come from poll aggregators or people like Nate Silver who are averaging polls. That is, they are attempting to combat problematic methodologies by averaging the results of different pollsters using different kinds of faulty methodologies! Another glaring problem is that these aggregate results NEVER include the predictions made by two prominent pollsters –Zogby and the Democracy Institute – whose results were accurate in 2016, and are also trending more favorable to Trump in 2020."
To finish, several historic metrics and trends are in Trump’s favor:
1. No incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, the 4th highest in all-time. Trump set a record for primary participation levels for an incumbent with 18.1million votes.
2. Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, won the election. This year, Pew gives Trump a 20% lead in enthusiasm. “The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964”.
3. A majority of polls expect Trump to win, and the expectation question has proven more accurate historically than the voter INTENTION question that gives Biden the edge.
4. Beginning in 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/10/16/bad-polls-and-good-polls-explained-the-art-of-polling/
These pollsters are waaaaaay more accurate than Nate Silver. Again, start paying attention to Norpoth, Peoples Pundit, Trafalgar & Barnes Law.
KAG2020