Again, agip, the relevance to your post is that humans aren’t “clusters.” The Earth is a single system. You’re trying to use examples in isolation. You’re thinking in terms of borders & economies, but the virus doesn’t care. Just the opposite, teamwork & cooperation is needed. De-emphasizing purely financial concerns is needed. That’s what got us in this situation, treating it purely as a technological or political problem.
Yes, yosinglerct, I’m on other threads with the same problem of grasping at isolated examples to prove the virus can be handled easily somewhere without major changes. It can’t be proven, is the problem.
I don’t start these threads. We’ve got a russian thread, two Sweden threads, even one on my state of Arkansas. Each has an agip-type character who says certain numbers in certain countries show We Can Handle This.
Even countries that are facing reality & taking their lumps in the common interest (Germany & France), even these countries have threads where someone attempts to prove that they AREN’T handling it properly. Because god forbid we should imitate their methods.
jesseriley wrote:
Again, agip, the relevance to your post is that humans aren’t “clusters.” The Earth is a single system. You’re trying to use examples in isolation. You’re thinking in terms of borders & economies, but the virus doesn’t care. Just the opposite, teamwork & cooperation is needed. De-emphasizing purely financial concerns is needed. That’s what got us in this situation, treating it purely as a technological or political problem.
no one is treating as purely a tech or poli problem. There's no isolation. You are making stuff up, as usual, trying to pigeonhole me as one thing or another. Feel free, but it's wrong.
it's 100% clear that there are clusters of pain here. Look at deaths or cases per million. There is enormous variability. From 200 per million in Spain and Italy to 8 in Norway, 10 in Germany etc.
I don't see a reason why stats should ignore that variability. Tell me why I should ignore that variability.
They might all come to be the same 200 per million, god forbid, but tracking them separately would at least tell us of that convergence.
You really aren't making any sense to me.
Of course you are free to say anything, agip. I would suggest a numerical approach is misses the broader picture. The virus is excellent at moving from one cluster to another, no more really needs saying.
Time is a factor, and again I’d suggest it’s more productive to follow a France or Germany than analyze endlessly.
These countries are allies, democracies like us, they’ve committed to approaching the problem head-on, and their leaders aren’t insane.
johnny99 wrote:
If your opponent keeps shooting himself in the foot, just stand back and let it happen.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/with-2020-race-all-but-halted-over-coronavirus-biden-quietly-widens-lead-over-trump-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN21I3K6"The result suggested that Biden had not been hurt politically from his lack of visibility while the Republican president is at the center of a government response to a pandemic that has infected more than 184,000 people in the United States and killed more than 3,700 people."
In my opinion, it's bad form for a candidate to take shots at the president in the time of a crisis.
jesseriley wrote:
Yes, yosinglerct, I’m on other threads with the same problem of grasping at isolated examples to prove the virus can be handled easily somewhere without major changes. It can’t be proven, is the problem.
I don’t start these threads. We’ve got a russian thread, two Sweden threads, even one on my state of Arkansas. Each has an agip-type character who says certain numbers in certain countries show We Can Handle This.
Even countries that are facing reality & taking their lumps in the common interest (Germany & France), even these countries have threads where someone attempts to prove that they AREN’T handling it properly. Because god forbid we should imitate their methods.
perfect example of people trying to pigeonhole me and project things onto me that I don't say or believe.
I'm looking at numbers and trying to see what story they tell.
There is a very clear cluster in Italy/France/Spain and so I am following it.
I have recently begun tracking the US and may track the UK as they become clusters.
Following this stuff tells us what is going on. I'm not saying anyone is in the clear.
On the other hand, everyone wants to know why Germany is having such success even as its neighbors suffer far worse.
Agip, you might look into how South Korea handled it (if you haven't already)- see NY TIme article of March 23rd. A big eye-opener in that they limited the damages perhaps more than any other country.
Excellent question, yosinglerct. (I reported you for calling me russian.)
Russia is struggling and attempting to hide it. Besides the virus & an insane dictator (sounds familiar), their economy has crashed after tangling with the Saudis in an oil-price war.
Biden’s criticism seemed obviously directed at sticking up for the states, since trump is punishing them personally, a much bigger problem in a crisis.
Yosinglerct wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
I'm not so sure that those who accept the science are the vast majority - particularly amongst some political and business leaders. Self-interest collides with science. And then there are the plain dumb - who are too numerous to be counted.
I don't think a lot of people have taken the time to look at the science. The vast majority of political and business leaders will only do what serves their self-interest regardless of whether they've looked at the science.
As you said, the dumb, head-in-the-sand contingent is the majority.
Yes, I like how you put that. The head-in-the-sand contingent is the group I'm worried about.
The crazy, utterly crazy part of all this is that if we just washed our hands constantly and walked around with purell bottles (and used them) this thing would end rightquicklike.
I don't understand why every doctor and politician isn't yelling 'wash your hands' every time a camera points at her.
Just keep saying 'wash your hands' and maybe 'never touch your face'
and it's done for, most likely.
There are multiple threads this rant could have been placed in but I've decided to put it here. It's just my rant and in the scheme of things not important at all. I'm sure it will receive attacks from all sides but again, it just a rant and I'm posting for my mental health mostly.
The university I work at essentially shut down 3 1/2 weeks ago so in my mind that was the first action and the first indication that 'they/we' were taking this virus seriously. This thing started in China back in December (or earlier). Travel wasn't banned or halted completely for months after.. I'm not sure it even has been halted.... or if it even matters. I have no idea how long we have all been exposed to it
My main gripe with all of this is there is still no actual real true information being made available to all of us.
We are still being bombarded with information which supports anything that ranges from 'it's just the flu' scenario to it's 'the end of the world' scenario. I understand the need to flatten the curve but in addition to trying to do that 'they' created fear and panic due to misinformation, unclear information, or not enough accurate information. The nation is so split politically that the media and people in general have picked sides and therefore the information sources/information that agrees with their 'side'
We are told (in no particular order):
1) it's super deadly yet it's not even clear how deadly it is. (I'm not saying it's not deadly so no need to argue that point).
2) we are told up to 70% of us will get it but that some/many/most will get mild cases and may not even know they have it.
3) we are told masks don't work or don't wear them because there aren't enough to go around (yet we are told we need to slow the spread - would masks help or not? )
4) we are told the main way you get it is by touching something and then touching your face , so wash hands often, don't touch your face, and practice proper social distancing... yet we still have no idea how long the virus can last outside the human body...I've read from various sources... 2-3 hours, 2-3 days, or up to 7 days..... how is it even possible to function according to certain rules when there are no definitive answers (no need to post a link to an article showing me what you believe to be true here because the other side could post one disputing it)
5) we are told we need to flatten the curve --- I understand why so we don't need to debate that--- but we are not told how flat it has to be made or how long this will take... Realistically how long can we actually live under SIP conditions? Has anyone really considered this? (Again I am not saying I don't understand why we are doing it... I get it... but how long is it really possible for society to handle?)... as a side note, my nephew (20 something) says he's a team player and is willing to do it for 18 months (the vaccine date thrown out to us) yet he hasn't even considered how he could pay for food and a roof over his head without a job for 18 months.
6) we have no idea where we are on the curve or even what the curve represents to us.
7) we don't know what the percentage of serious cases will be and we don't know what the rate of death will be (yes I know plenty of estimates out there)
8) we have several websites keeping 'score' of the virus on a daily basis but have no idea how accurate the information is or what the score really means to anyone.
9) we have received no explanation as to why the disease won't just start up again if we've stopped it in an area....
10) this list could go on and on so i'll just put ....etc.
We seem utterly unprepared for this entire pandemic at all levels... not enough tests, not enough hospital beds, not enough ventilators, not enough protective gear for medical workers. Truthfully, we could have been better prepared but there is almost no way it's realistic to believe we could have been totally prepared. We are still being reactive and not proactive however.
End rant.
TL;DR ... Not enough accurate information available to us and I'm completely annoyed by that.
Again, sorry for my post ... i've just been cooped up here for too long.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
If your opponent keeps shooting himself in the foot, just stand back and let it happen.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/with-2020-race-all-but-halted-over-coronavirus-biden-quietly-widens-lead-over-trump-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN21I3K6"The result suggested that Biden had not been hurt politically from his lack of visibility while the Republican president is at the center of a government response to a pandemic that has infected more than 184,000 people in the United States and killed more than 3,700 people."
In my opinion, it's bad form for a candidate to take shots at the president in the time of a crisis.
I agree, and I think that Biden gets that too. He has criticized Trump a little, but overall he's been pretty restrained. If Trump hadn't fumbled this crisis so badly, Biden would most likely be falling, not rising, in the polls. But Trump is his own worst enemy, and Biden seems to be benefiting (at least based on this one poll).
Have to rant......... wrote:
There are multiple threads this rant could have been placed in but I've decided to put it here. It's just my rant and in the scheme of things not important at all. I'm sure it will receive attacks from all sides but again, it just a rant and I'm posting for my mental health mostly.
The university I work at essentially shut down 3 1/2 weeks ago so in my mind that was the first action and the first indication that 'they/we' were taking this virus seriously. This thing started in China back in December (or earlier). Travel wasn't banned or halted completely for months after.. I'm not sure it even has been halted.... or if it even matters. I have no idea how long we have all been exposed to it
My main gripe with all of this is there is still no actual real true information being made available to all of us.
We are still being bombarded with information which supports anything that ranges from 'it's just the flu' scenario to it's 'the end of the world' scenario. I understand the need to flatten the curve but in addition to trying to do that 'they' created fear and panic due to misinformation, unclear information, or not enough accurate information. The nation is so split politically that the media and people in general have picked sides and therefore the information sources/information that agrees with their 'side'
We are told (in no particular order):
1) it's super deadly yet it's not even clear how deadly it is. (I'm not saying it's not deadly so no need to argue that point).
2) we are told up to 70% of us will get it but that some/many/most will get mild cases and may not even know they have it.
3) we are told masks don't work or don't wear them because there aren't enough to go around (yet we are told we need to slow the spread - would masks help or not? )
4) we are told the main way you get it is by touching something and then touching your face , so wash hands often, don't touch your face, and practice proper social distancing... yet we still have no idea how long the virus can last outside the human body...I've read from various sources... 2-3 hours, 2-3 days, or up to 7 days..... how is it even possible to function according to certain rules when there are no definitive answers (no need to post a link to an article showing me what you believe to be true here because the other side could post one disputing it)
5) we are told we need to flatten the curve --- I understand why so we don't need to debate that--- but we are not told how flat it has to be made or how long this will take... Realistically how long can we actually live under SIP conditions? Has anyone really considered this? (Again I am not saying I don't understand why we are doing it... I get it... but how long is it really possible for society to handle?)... as a side note, my nephew (20 something) says he's a team player and is willing to do it for 18 months (the vaccine date thrown out to us) yet he hasn't even considered how he could pay for food and a roof over his head without a job for 18 months.
6) we have no idea where we are on the curve or even what the curve represents to us.
7) we don't know what the percentage of serious cases will be and we don't know what the rate of death will be (yes I know plenty of estimates out there)
8) we have several websites keeping 'score' of the virus on a daily basis but have no idea how accurate the information is or what the score really means to anyone.
9) we have received no explanation as to why the disease won't just start up again if we've stopped it in an area....
10) this list could go on and on so i'll just put ....etc.
We seem utterly unprepared for this entire pandemic at all levels... not enough tests, not enough hospital beds, not enough ventilators, not enough protective gear for medical workers. Truthfully, we could have been better prepared but there is almost no way it's realistic to believe we could have been totally prepared. We are still being reactive and not proactive however.
End rant.
TL;DR ... Not enough accurate information available to us and I'm completely annoyed by that.
Again, sorry for my post ... i've just been cooped up here for too long.
Yep, we are operating with poor information, poor data, and poor preparation. That pretty much sums it up.
I know you don't want to hear this, but there isn't much any of us can do about that.
You didn't mention poor leadership. There is something we can do about that in November.
agip wrote:
The crazy, utterly crazy part of all this is that if we just washed our hands constantly and walked around with purell bottles (and used them) this thing would end rightquicklike.
I don't understand why every doctor and politician isn't yelling 'wash your hands' every time a camera points at her.
Just keep saying 'wash your hands' and maybe 'never touch your face'
and it's done for, most likely.
It requires other measures as well, including social distancing, if not more. Surely you don't think it is that simple.
Things that aren't hard science and are colliding:
public policy
politics
medical policy
plus we don't understand this virus very well.
because of all that confusion I really wish officials would keep it simple and just shout over and over to wash your flippin' hands.
seattle prattle wrote:
agip wrote:
The crazy, utterly crazy part of all this is that if we just washed our hands constantly and walked around with purell bottles (and used them) this thing would end rightquicklike.
I don't understand why every doctor and politician isn't yelling 'wash your hands' every time a camera points at her.
Just keep saying 'wash your hands' and maybe 'never touch your face'
and it's done for, most likely.
It requires other measures as well, including social distancing, if not more. Surely you don't think it is that simple.
my understanding is that almost all of the transferring of the virus (outside hospitals) is from touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face.
Sure there is some 'virus in the air' transmittal but from what I've read that's probably very rare.
Much of the social distancing policy is to keep contaminated people from touching stuff.
In hospitals things are different because of the concentration of virus.
agip wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
It requires other measures as well, including social distancing, if not more. Surely you don't think it is that simple.
my understanding is that almost all of the transferring of the virus (outside hospitals) is from touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face.
Sure there is some 'virus in the air' transmittal but from what I've read that's probably very rare.
Much of the social distancing policy is to keep contaminated people from touching stuff.
In hospitals things are different because of the concentration of virus.
infected people, some of which do not even know they are infected and show no symptoms, breathe out droplets and those can be ingested by others or can contaminate surfaces. It is possible to breathe in those droplets without ever touching anything, so i am lead to believe. Social distancing helps minimize that possibility. If anyone with more expertise would like to comment, please do so.
Italy 4/1 numbers in and they are good.
minus 13%.
3 day average for Italy is minus 1.
Lowest absolute number since 3/26
and a 15th day of a band of new cases.