Sit and kick wrote:
It could be just me... But isn't Wayzata way to underrated in those rankings. In almost every ranking on this thread they are either ranked 1st or 2nd. Anyone have an explanation?
A few things:
There have only been 2 lists posted on this thread, and both were seemingly overestimating at least one Wayzata kid (the aforementioned Khalid Hussein). Unless there is just something I am missing, it very well could be that both of the posters have a significant bias towards Wayzata and/or Minnesota runners for some reason.
The other thing is that Meylan's rankings at Tullyrunners are based almost strictly off of returning XC performances, while many others will be posting based off of what track times they know of (and some will prefer mile marks over 3200m, or visa versa).
Meylan also says that his pre-season rankings should only be considered a starting point - what happens in the coming months will say much more about how good the teams are, and what teams have been overlooked or underrated, than what happened in XC last fall or track this spring.
I would agree that he is probably underrating Wayzata to a large degree (I wouldn't be surprised if they are Top 10, maybe challenging Top 5). However, based on his criteria and the process he used, one potential oversight on his part shouldn't mean you disregard the rest of his work.
It might be worth taking a look at what Meylan's Top 5 teams have returning before rushing to judgement though:
1. Neuqua Valley IL - 19th at NXN last year, return 4 of their varsity (#99, 100, 104, 140). Return 4 under 16:00 for 5k (#5 at 16:16) and 5 under 15:05 for 3 miles (their standard distance). In track, had a 9:15 kid and 6 more between 9:23 and 9:45.
2. American Fork UT - 2nd at NXN last year, return 3 of their varsity (#1, 31 and 47). Over the last 10 years, they have been the second strongest program in the nation, trailing only North Central WA as they have finished in the top 8 seven years in a row including a pair of #2 finishes (2012 and 2015). Big question marks after their lead trio, but potential is there in a duo of youngsters who ran around 4:35/10:05 at altitude as freshmen this spring, along with another who ran 16:08 in XC last fall.
3. Dana Hills CA - 3rd at NXN last year, return 4 of their varsity (#61, 77, 131, 185). One of the strongest programs in the strongest state, they should be able to fill in their gaps. Return 4 guys 15:05 or better for 3 miles last fall, with a couple 9:50-9:55 runners from this spring to round out their top 5.
4. Lone Peak UT - 11th at NXN last year, return 5 of their varsity (#64, 118, 120, 136, 177). Their top 5 will be rounded out by a pair of 4:35/10:05 type guys at altitude, just like American Fork. Those runners ran 16:15-16:20 for 3 miles at altitude last fall (so on par with about the same for 5k at sea level).
5. Great Oak CA - Defending NXN Champions who were among the best teams ever last year. However, they only return one varsity runner from that group (#124 at NXN), but will reload with a VERY strong JV crew. Still return 5 guys under 15:55 for 5k and four under 15:21 for 3 miles - the latter NOT including their #1 returner (their varsity was at Bob Firman that weekend). Return 6 under 4:30 and 5 at 9:40 or better this spring.
Now, I'm not saying that blows teams like Wayzata out of the water - Wayzata has a pretty good crew returning themselves: finished 15th at NXN last year, returning 2 varsity (#76 and 155). Their JV included 3 more runners between 16:15-16:30 for 5k. Had 5 under 9:40 this spring.
NXN results paint a pretty decent picture of how the top returners probably match up. Wayzata's depth is on par with all those other teams, but their top few returners just weren't as good last year.