Early prediction thread: Olympic Marathon Trials

the teams will be: wrote:

Men: Ritz, Estrada, Rupp (Ritz runs away not leaving anything to chance. Pace is slow - helping Diego and Galen to sprint away from Meb, Luke, and others with 400m remaining).

Women: Desi, Shalane, Sara Hall (Desi Linden and Flanagan look like locks. Look for a surprising Sara Hall to drop another 5-6 minutes off her PR in only her 3rd marathon and sneak into 3rd at around 2:25-2:26)

Y'all heard it here first!

This is a marathon, not a 10k

MatthewTheHahn wrote:

In no particular order...

Sam Chelanga-Bit of wild card but he shows great potential. He peak out pudreska, meb, and ward in the duo to rio in dallas back in december

Luke Pudreska-coming off of a great time in Chicago and seems in great form right now

Galen Rupp-did a 61:20 off of 9 weeks of training. Runs 140 mpw and has an incredibly economic stride.

Other contenders

-Dathan Ritzenhein-He has trouble with injury in the past, so we will see

-meb-I think he just isn't in the form he needs to be in right now

-jarred ward-he is good but not good enough

Since when has Rupp run 140 mpw?

The realistic order:

1. Meb

2. Ritz

3. Luke P

Wild Card Rupp

This is based on Ritz having a pretty poor record against Meb and Meb always wanting it more and being tougher than Ritz. Luke P is on fire right now so it's hard to to pick him. Rupp will either win the trials or not make the team.

The order I'd love to see

1. Bobby Curtis

2. Jared Ward

3. Jacob Riley

Kinda of a Hanson's fanboy and I'd love to see at least Curtis make the team. Plus I think he's got a pretty legit shot to make it if he has a great race. Good luck to anyone trying to make the team though.

puskedra

ward

meb

shalane

desi

Cragg

MatthewTheHahn wrote:

Galen Rupp-did a 61:20 off of 9 weeks of training. Runs 140 mpw and has an incredibly economic stride.

Galen doesn't run 140 miles per week.

Sloop John B wrote:

This is based on Ritz having a pretty poor record against Meb and Meb always wanting it more and being tougher than Ritz.

What are you basing this claim on?

Estrada is in damn good shape. 20 mile run back in december, avg 4:55. Also has the chops at the half as seen at last years USA Half-Marathon Champs. Vigil is putting him in contention whether whether people like it or not. Also if it comes down to finishing speed at the very end... 3:41 says the only person pulling away from estrada is rupp.

Agree with this ^^

Estrada is not getting enough love. I get that plenty can go wrong in a debut marathon. but his success in the 1500- half marathon is more impressive than any other contender not named Meb or Dathan.

After a presumably hesitant pace for the the first 3/4 of the race, look for him to blow though the last few miles for at LEAST a spot (if not a win.)

Why not more comments on the women's race?

History shows the top three qualifiers are never the top three finishers, so odds are against: Meb, Dathan, Puskedra; and Shalane, Desi, Cragg.

Assuming Rupp doesn't run and I don't think he will, I'm going with:

Puskedra for the win

Meb

Kibett

wild card: Biwott

Shalane for the win

Desi

Deena

wild card: Kleppin

1. Puskedra,

2. Estrada,

3. Llano

1. Shalane

2. Deena

3. Bersagel

men - 3 Kenyan expats...

women-3 usual Americans - Flanagan, Linden, Drossin

80 degrees kills peeps training in winter conditions...unknown runners both female and male who trained for the heat make team.

Men:

1. Dathan

2. Ward

3. Meb

Wild Card: Tim Ritchie

Women:

1. Shalane

2. Desi

3. Cragg

Wild card: Goucher. She will either contend with Shalane for 1st, or mentally blow up and barely finish. No in between with her, a true wild card.

Hot & windy wrote:

80 degrees kills peeps training in winter conditions...unknown runners both female and male who trained for the heat make team.

bingo

Many marathons have come down to the final push in the last 400-800m. Agree with other posters that if the pace is on the medium-to-slower side, then the probability that Rupp and Estrada make the team goes up. Knowing this, I'd suspect guys like Meb and Luke P will keep the pace honest in the 2:09-2:11 range through the half-marathon split in hope of taking the kick out their legs (making appropriate adjustments for heat and humidity).

Should be a good race!

1. Rupp

2. Meb

3. Ritz

The race will be faster with Rupp in the race. Many guys will have mental breakdowns in the next two weeks/on race day because of Rupp's announcement. This is a genius move- let guys stew over the fact that America's greatest distance runner is moving up.

Estrada will bomb. Puskedra will put up a good fight for third (and may even snag that last spot).

1. Rupp

2. Puskedra

3. Ritz/Meb/Chelenga

but honestly it depends on the type of race. in a slow race I got the young guns. Hard race from the beginning the experience and veterans will have a better shot.

Agreed. The best thing that could happen to the vets is for the rookies/youngsters to take it out hard. They will eat 'em up late.

Would be interesting to be a fly on the wall during the AlSal/Rupp race strategy sessions. I would guess he would simply run just fast enough to make the team, but who knows.