It's still very early, but Feb 13 is slowly coming around the corner.
Predict the top 3 (men and women) finishers in the Olympic Trials marathon.
It's still very early, but Feb 13 is slowly coming around the corner.
Predict the top 3 (men and women) finishers in the Olympic Trials marathon.
Meb
Dathan
Luke Paskedra
Shelane
Desi
Amy Cragg
Meb
Ritz
RYAN HALL!!!!
Desi
Shalane
DEENA KASTOR!!!!
puskedra
ward
meb
shalane
desi
???
shalane
desi
molly pritz or lauren kleppin (okay, maybe unlikely, but I would find one of them squeaking on the team cool). Does MP still run?
colormeconfused wrote:
shalane
desi
molly pritz or lauren kleppin (okay, maybe unlikely, but I would find one of them squeaking on the team cool). Does MP still run?
I think that 3rd spot on the women's team will be interesting. Seems like it's up-for-grabs and there are a handful of women who could take it.
1) puskedra
2) vail
3) ward
I'm extremely confident in this.
Answer sheet wrote:
1) puskedra
2) vail
3) ward
I'm extremely confident in this.
No way. Vail coming back from injury for starters.
Gota be Meb, Ritz, and I'll give the third spot to Puskedra, although there are others who could challenge.
This is assuming Rupp doesn't run. If Rupp runs then it's Meb, Ritz, Rupp (no particular order).
For the women Desi, Shalane and I'm rooting for Kara Goucher to take 3rd, although I know she's a long shot. Amy Cragg for 3rd if I had to bet money.
Dathan, Puskedra, Llano or Ward.
Easy !
My top 5:
Chelanga
Meb
Pennel
Ward
Puskedra
Curtis, Gotcher and Grey will round out the top 8!
itajuv10 wrote:
Easy !
My top 5:
Chelanga
Meb
Pennel
Ward
Puskedra
Curtis, Gotcher and Grey will round out the top 8!
Chelanga adds an interesting element to it. Definitely should be a contender. Or at least the potential is clearly there. You never know how the first marathon wil go.
But you're not putting Ritz in your top 8?!? I think Ritz is a definite lock and I'm pretty confident about Meb as well.
Ritz wins, Ward and Puskedra make the team. I'm not confident on the debutants, they add an interesting element but I'm not sold. Vail, Meb, Llano, Curtis and Eggleston round out top 8. I have to pick experience over risk.
Shal and and Desi, no doubt. I'd put Cragg third, but Deena will undoubtedly have a presence.
In no particular order...
Sam Chelanga-Bit of wild card but he shows great potential. He peak out pudreska, meb, and ward in the duo to rio in dallas back in december
Luke Pudreska-coming off of a great time in Chicago and seems in great form right now
Galen Rupp-did a 61:20 off of 9 weeks of training. Runs 140 mpw and has an incredibly economic stride.
Other contenders
-Dathan Ritzenhein-He has trouble with injury in the past, so we will see
-meb-I think he just isn't in the form he needs to be in right now
-jarred ward-he is good but not good enough
I think Serena Burla will be a presence too along with Deena
Soprano wrote:
Chelanga adds an interesting element to it. Definitely should be a contender. Or at least the potential is clearly there. You never know how the first marathon wil go.
But you're not putting Ritz in your top 8?!? I think Ritz is a definite lock and I'm pretty confident about Meb as well.
Regarding Ritz, it seems to me that little are the chances he makes it to race day in top form. He had little down time earlier in novembre and decembre.
Chelanga, Meb and Pennel are, in my point of views, the three best road championship racers of the field, and it's maybe all it'll take in LA.
Meb is a lock for making the team, but I don't think he can win this.
Chelanga has dominated the 2nd part of 2015 on the roads, over a great range of distances, and I truly feel the marathon can fits him well.
Pennel is right now maybe the 2nd fastest 5k runner of the field, after Chelanga. He is good in championship style races, has half and marathon credentials via his 61 and TC marathon win.
Puskedra is in a really good shape, but having to choose, I have to think he won't have a 2nd consecutive "miracle" run as in Chicago.
Ward, if he can get his ealry 2015 great momentum on the roads, I think he can run with about any american runner right now, as is Puskedra and the other four.
The top 5 is far too difficult to predict, because of all the good guys in the field. If there'd be one of those five DNS or DNF, I think Curtis is a safe bet to be in contention for the team or the "off the team" spots.
For the first time since 2012, Gotcher ran pretty well the last 3 months, and it seems to me he's right where he was before 2012 OT when he finished 5th.
Grey has made a coaching change in the last year by joining the BTC (Lee Troop) and looks like on a positive path. I don't exactly why, but I firmly believe in Troop's approach.
The next contenders, in my point of view, are Llano, Vail, Riley and Quigley.
Would Aaron Rono suprise and be upfront late the race? Will Scott Bauhs be able to use his 10k credential and his 62 half of this january to have a good run at OT? Will Eggleston be able to run a championship race as good as his Fukuoka 2:10?
The marathon is too far of a run for Estrada at this point of his career. And Rupp won't make it to the start line.
1: Dathan
2: Puskedra
3: Meb
I'll make some broad assumptions to start to simplify.
Rupp won't compete. If he did, he'd be a lock.
No one who has yet to complete a marathon will finish in the top 3. This removes Estrada and Chelanga, among others.
Winning a lower tier race (USATF in an off year, marathon with no A or B level Africans) should be discounted. This discounts the chances of Ward and Pennell.
Pedigree matters. Guys that finished at a high level at championships in their NCAA career or on the track in their post college career are preferred to those that did little in either but made a career by training hard and competing on the roads. This discounts Eggleston, Vail, Llano, and Cabada, among others.
Those assumptions leave the following:
Meb. Great championship marathon racer against the best competition. Among the best PRs at every distance. Consistently performs. A lock if healthy.
Ritz. Very good championship racer against world competition. Great against US competition. Significant marathon experience. Among the best pedigrees. Despite injury talk, gets in shape fast. Has not been consistently beaten by anyone in the field other than Meb and maybe Abdi. Recent results suggest he's on the downward end of his career. Maybe lost a step.
Puskedra. Good NCAA pedigree. Multiple time high placer at NCAA cross and track. Best half and full marathon PR outside Meb and Ritz. On a recent string of strong performances. Past history of marathon blow ups. Never made a championship team.
Curtis. NCAA champ. Among the best PRs at every distance from 5k to marathon. Consistent marathon improvement. Limited US championship pedigree.
Abdi. Multiple worlds and Olympic teams. Among the best PRs at every distance from 5k to marathon. Talented as anyone. Old. Limited racing schedule over the last two years. May be past his prime.
Prediction is that two of the five above make it. Likely Meb and Ritz. Third place goes to one of the limited pedigree guys (Ward, Pennell, Vail) that hangs on better at the end when Puskedra, Abdi, or Curtis fade.
Looks like a chance of rain. Ritz FTW.
Estrada might have an outside chance
Cabada wins mens
Kara wins womens
Alberto, Schu, Adam G and Cap in a brawl.