What percentage of males in their prime could break 10 minutes in the the 2-mile after 5 years of training?

I like the 25% number. If you have five years most guys could trim down to a level to be a decent runner. Sub 10 really isn't that tough. Remember these are guys in their prime that focus only on running with great resources.

Runningart2004 wrote:

This is the 1000th thread that hints of running being so easy that anyone can do it. It's not.

^this. Thank you.

Still makes no difference. There's only so much training you can do, no matter how professional you are about it.

Kara Goucher has nothing but time and she can't even come close to where she's already been.

Genetics are needed to break 10, baby. not 5 years of perfect training.

Runningart2004 wrote:

Most men can't run more than 20-30 miles a week without breaking down. Most would have to lose a lot of mass to get light enough to run this fast.

Alan

isn't our body designed train for much more than that?

If these men grew up in africa, walked around barefoot - building strength in their ankles/legs - and had a perfect $60,000 diet available with every single nutrient, the best derivatives of each nutrient, the best physical therapist on the world, oxygen masks, walking/running much throughout the day to build running economy..etc

I feel like many more could do it.

pancaker wrote:

But Alan, we're talking about guys with 5 years of optimal training, which is more likely to be 100+ miles per week, rather than 40-60 MPW.

And I think you underestimate the adaptability we humans have.

I couldn't, like you said, run three days in a row without hurting myself, but after two year of training, I bumped up my mileage to 60-70 MPW without any big problem.

some guys won't survive 100mpw even after 5 years of slow increases in mileage. those who do, might still not break 10.

get out there, leave the bubble you live in, and meet some runners outside the HS/college scene. ask how many can break 10.

A small one.

If 14 year old freshman running 25 mpw routinely go sub-10, almost anyone after 5 years of high volume training and the little things all taken care of could do it. You runner boys aren't so special. You're just forced into this sport because you suck at other sports, and can't cope with the idea that you lack talent. 90%.

Back burn wrote:

If 14 year old freshman running 25 mpw routinely go sub-10, almost anyone after 5 years of high volume training and the little things all taken care of could do it. You runner boys aren't so special. You're just forced into this sport because you suck at other sports, and can't cope with the idea that you lack talent. 90%.

how dumb are you? obviously 14-yo kid has talent. you can't train 'talent', you can only maximise what you were given.

The talent of most soccer players who don't run because it's running in circles. Face it: if running were interesting, you wouldn't be nearly as good relatively as you are now. Sub-9:30 would be the new sub-10; we'd have 77 sub-4 HSers; not 7. Maton, Fisher, Rupp, all of these guys: converted soccer players.

^

yes wrote:

Runningart2004 wrote:

This is the 1000th thread that hints of running being so easy that anyone can do it. It's not.

^this. Thank you.

^this

In my honest opinion, it's all genetics, remember, a lot of the other kids in sports who "athletically" thrived in those sports when we didn't also have said they hate running, and I knew a few of them who switched over to distance running and failed. Me personally, I know I could do it in two years of that training, and also it's about the incentive too. If everyone were to pick up and do that right now, I would say.......25-33% of the population. Mostly, you'd see the younger generations with the higher number of success.

Back burn wrote:

The talent of most soccer players who don't run because it's running in circles. Face it: if running were interesting, you wouldn't be nearly as good relatively as you are now. Sub-9:30 would be the new sub-10; we'd have 77 sub-4 HSers; not 7. Maton, Fisher, Rupp, all of these guys: converted soccer players.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Only a small percentage of soccer players can become good runners. Really small.

Your sample of one is Rupp, I bet.

Back burn wrote:

If 14 year old freshman running 25 mpw routinely go sub-10, almost anyone after 5 years of high volume training and the little things all taken care of could do it. You runner boys aren't so special. You're just forced into this sport because you suck at other sports, and can't cope with the idea that you lack talent. 90%.

Really? Freshmen routinely running under 10? When I ran high school, there was one freshman in our region of 2 million under 10. There are plenty more who can't break 12. It's very unusual for a freshman to break 10.

I'm with the low percentage people.

Runningart2004 wrote:

I think most serious runners underestimate how fast 10:00 is. Look at your local 5k. These guys are putting in all kinds of training.

I don't know what 5Ks you're running, but at the ones I've run the breakdown is

* 40% don't run at all

* 40% run a few times per week for fitness, are fitness geeks who happen to enjoy running

* 15% run regularly and consider themselves runners, but have modest goals and aren't skinny enough to run fast

* 4.8% are skinny and actively training to get faster at distance running, but don't do any speedwork, follow wussy training plans

* 0.2% are hardcore runners, typically guys who ran in college and are trying to continue or ressurect their running career.

zephito wrote:

Back burn wrote:

If 14 year old freshman running 25 mpw routinely go sub-10, almost anyone after 5 years of high volume training and the little things all taken care of could do it. You runner boys aren't so special. You're just forced into this sport because you suck at other sports, and can't cope with the idea that you lack talent. 90%.

Really? Freshmen routinely running under 10? When I ran high school, there was one freshman in our region of 2 million under 10. There are plenty more who can't break 12. It's very unusual for a freshman to break 10.

I'm with the low percentage people.

When I was a SR in HS only one guy in the entire Conference ran sub 10:00. (1996). Only 3 in Sectional ran sun 10:00. These are kids who were genetically geared toward running and trained to do so.

Sub 10:00 is fast, he'll for the normal population sub 12:00 is fast.

This thread should be retitled how many men could train to run sub 12:00, then I would say nearly 100%

Alan

Runningart2004 wrote:

zephito wrote:

Really? Freshmen routinely running under 10? When I ran high school, there was one freshman in our region of 2 million under 10. There are plenty more who can't break 12. It's very unusual for a freshman to break 10.

I'm with the low percentage people.

When I was a SR in HS only one guy in the entire Conference ran sub 10:00. (1996). Only 3 in Sectional ran sun 10:00. These are kids who were genetically geared toward running and trained to do so.

Sub 10:00 is fast, he'll for the normal population sub 12:00 is fast.

This thread should be retitled how many men could train to run sub 12:00, then I would say nearly 100%

Alan

Nope. Doubt it would even reach 10%. People in general actually suck at running and practicing it makes little difference if the basic tools aren't there.

Given that nearly 50% of the population is obese and PE is pretty much withdrawn from all schools, I'd say a fraction of 1%. Have you walked around a mall or the beach? My gosh we're a fat society. If your question was regarding a more fit country like The Netherlands, where the average person rides their bike 5 miles/day year round or places where there isn't fast food on every corner than the people have a chance at being able to run around a track without stopping.

Yep, I've said it before....you have to be fit to run, but you don't get fit by running

Alan

5 year old 'splainer wrote:

Mary Cain had access to all that and look what it's done to her. 2% could do it. Tops.

If so many guys could do it then we'd also see way more modestly talented guys becoming elite through hard work. Doesn't happen.

That's why Sell created such amazement by developing.

CORRECT! Those of you who have broken 10:00 (and I am in that group of course) feel that you did so based on hard work, and while that might have been needed for some of you, mostly you were lucky that you had the genes to allow it to happen. We already have a pretty good testing ground of high school athletes. 2% max is the best answer in this thread for this question, and it's probably even a little lower.