Tyrees wrote:
He states that he'd be happy with anything under 2:10. Just went and looked at his training. It is indeed impressive, but I don't think he is in 2:10 shape at all. I worry that he is going to go out to hard and blow up again. He should just go and try to run 2:12. That would be a Great improvement. Instead he is setting himself up for disaster with an overly ambitious goal. He is a 2:16 guy for crying out loud, no shame in a very solid 4min PB. These NAZ guys are always thinking that they are fitter than they actually are, you'd think they would learn by now.
I got the same feeling before his debut at Chicago last year when he stated the same goal after posting a video of a workout he did with Ryan Vail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWhMjRpV7msIn the video, it's obvious Vail is much more fit and he's a 2:10 high guy. his sub-2:10 goal seemed overly ambitious at the time as it does now.
I'm not sure if there's anything to it, but he and his coach seem to think his training paces, because they're at altitude, are equivalent to 15 seconds per mile faster. So when he does a race pace workout at 5:10 pace, they believe he's actually running 4:55 pace. That explains where their getting the sub 2:10 goal, but I haven't seen a lot of proof about the efficacy of such an approach. It seems to me that the Kenyans are at higher altitude and don't adjust their training paces by nearly that much.