Tell me about Jared Ward

i think he's a favorite for sure. gotta wait for diego estrada's debut before i call anything. if estrada doesnt debut until the trials, i doubt he makes top 3.

and yes, this performance is an improvement for ward. he ran 2:14:00 in his debut during XC season, and LA was pretty warm. probably worth 2:11:00ish

i'd guess that the us team will be made up of any 3 of these guys (depending on injury)

ritz

vail

ward

estrada

meb

The thing I like about Ward is that he is patient and understands the distance, even though he's still green at it.

Estrada seems like he has a lot of fire, which can be a disaster for the marathon. And he's a moderate mileage/really high intensity guy, which makes him seem more like a 10k/HM guy instead of a HM/marathon guy. I hope I'm wrong because I'd love to see an American break 2:10.

This Olympic Trials is going to be fun to watch. Meb has to be the favorite but he's proven to be vulnerable to injury in the past, as well as Ritz. I thought Abdi was done but he's found his mojo after coming from Ethiopia.

I think Ward will match up very nicely with Vail and I expect one of them to make the team. I'll be interested to see if Ward runs another full before then, but I doubt he will.

Tyler Pennel is another guy who is on that same level but I feel he needs to jump into one more marathon where he has to run with some grit and is constantly pushed and pulled.

reed wrote:

i think he's a favorite for sure. gotta wait for diego estrada's debut before i call anything. if estrada doesnt debut until the trials, i doubt he makes top 3.

and yes, this performance is an improvement for ward. he ran 2:14:00 in his debut during XC season, and LA was pretty warm. probably worth 2:11:00ish

i'd guess that the us team will be made up of any 3 of these guys (depending on injury)

ritz

Eggleston

vail

ward

estrada

meb

Fixed.

i believe his debut run during XC was more like 2:16:xx, then he ran 2:14 last year, so to run 2:12 in the heat seems super impressive. i bet he goes sub 2:10 within a couple years.

reed wrote:

i think he's a favorite for sure. gotta wait for diego estrada's debut before i call anything. if estrada doesnt debut until the trials, i doubt he makes top 3.

and yes, this performance is an improvement for ward. he ran 2:14:00 in his debut during XC season, and LA was pretty warm. probably worth 2:11:00ish

i'd guess that the us team will be made up of any 3 of these guys (depending on injury)

ritz

vail

ward

estrada

meb

Yeah can't forget Eggleston. He's been a tad under the radar, if only because he is actually running internationally unlike most emerging US marathon elites.

...and you guys can all still sleep on Max King.

Dude begged to get into the elite field (wasn't invited), drove himself to the start and didn't get any special "elite water bottles on the table" treatment.

Another year of solid training, he'll be right there around 2:12-2:11

Shimmy Mack wrote:

...and you guys can all still sleep on Max King.

Dude begged to get into the elite field (wasn't invited), drove himself to the start and didn't get any special "elite water bottles on the table" treatment.

Another year of solid training, he'll be right there around 2:12-2:11

Sage Canaday got into the elite field but Max King didn't? I don't get why Sage gets these kind of special benefits when Max doesn't. Max is faster and tougher, with better PRs, more range, and a much more impressive resume, not to mention that he's a better ambassador to the sport, as his objectives aren't so obviously centered on peddling the next sponsor product or overpriced coaching slot to make a quick buck. Max is not going to run a 2:11-2:12 without focusing on the marathon, which seems like something he's unlikely to do, but in a hard race with super hot or windy conditions, I can easily see him being top 10 on his toughness alone.

Regarding the subject, good for Ward. I like seeing the humble guys succeed. Hall's religious beliefs have brought him overconfidence, while Ward's have brought him patience, which matters a lot in marathoning.

Bobby Curtis

add in wrote:

reed wrote:

i think he's a favorite for sure. gotta wait for diego estrada's debut before i call anything. if estrada doesnt debut until the trials, i doubt he makes top 3.

and yes, this performance is an improvement for ward. he ran 2:14:00 in his debut during XC season, and LA was pretty warm. probably worth 2:11:00ish

i'd guess that the us team will be made up of any 3 of these guys (depending on injury)

ritz

Eggleston

vail

ward

estrada

meb

Fixed.

Abdi can still run a good one on his day.

Mormons > Christians

He runs for Saucony. Recently graduated from BYU but is older. He has been steadily improving in the marathon for a while. He is certainly a contender for the team. Right now I would guess he would be 4th behind Meb Vail and Ritz. But any of that could change.

The Daniels VDOT Calculator estimates the impact of an 80F temperature during the marathon as 9.9 seconds per mile or almost 4:30 total over the course of the marathon. That would make this a huge improvement.

http://www.runsmartproject.com/calculator/#modEasy

Why do ppl think Ryan Vail will make the team???????????? No way

In spite of all of his issues, I wouldn't count Hall out until he officially does not make the team. If he was smart (big ask I know), he'd just let everyone else set the pace and be happy with a 2:11/2:12 making the team.

They wouldn't have ran sub 2:10 in 2012 if it wasn't for Hall trying to push it early.

Jared Ward 26yo (dob 9 Sept 88)

4:03.67i Feb 2013

7:52.51i OT March 2014

13:34.74 April 2014

28:36.15 March 2013

1:01:42 January 2015

Marathons:

2:16:17 Chicago 2013 19th (1:06:44, 1:09:33) Was outside top 30 at half, so moved up even with those splits.

2:14:00 Twin Cities 2014 2nd. (1:07:48, 1:06:12) With leader group of 8 at half.

He said in post-race interview that he thought he was in 2:10-2:11 shape, if the weather had been better.

I've run into him a couple of times at different races over the last 2 years--and he has struck me as a genuinely good guy. Very down to earth. Despite getting screwed by the NCAA on his sr XC season (didn't allow him to race until just before nationals, after he had already run the Chicago marathon) he has just continued to work hard and slowly drop his times down. I believe he is still living in Provo and being coached by Ed Eyestone. His brother was on a 4x800 team that won New Balance indoor nationals Saturday--it was a good weekend for the Ward family. Would be awesome to see him negative split and go 2:09 at the Olympic trials. I see him as a Brian Sell type guy, with a little more speed and talent.

Also I don't know why everyone has failed to mention that he won the very prestigious and competitive Little Grand Canyon Marathon in 2013...........he totally destroyed the field!

http://www.runnercard.com/runner/data/1825/5010/Result/Mens_Marathon.htm

heyyo wrote:

The Daniels VDOT Calculator estimates the impact of an 80F temperature during the marathon as 9.9 seconds per mile or almost 4:30 total over the course of the marathon. That would make this a huge improvement.

http://www.runsmartproject.com/calculator/#modEasy

I am not trying to be a jerk but it was not 80 degrees for most of that race. Maybe about half? I thought I heard them say it was 72 somewhere near the hour mark but I could be making that up. Regardless, that calculation assumes it is 80+ for all 26.2 miles.

Bumbi maybe? Nice debut in the half Sunday beating Ritz and meb

Arciniaga is good for a 2:11 if he hits it right

There are so many Americans in the 2:11-2:12 possibility range though, I'd only bet on injury free dathan and injury free meb. The third spot is wiiiiide open. Estrada looks like a good bet as it stands this far out