I haven't seen much about Ryan and Sara going into the LA Marathon this weekend. I'd really like to see Ryan have a good race and become competitive in the US scene again. If he's anywhere near where he used to be, he really ought to be able to compete for the win here.
Sara's seemed more competitive than Ryan lately. That 1:10:50 at US championships was pretty solid. If she has a good day, maybe she can run 2:30?
Ryan 2:13
Sara 2:31
Ryan will run a comfortable 2:12 /13
Another step in the right direction.
Long range weather forecast calls for sunny, low of 60 and high of 80 in Santa Monica. Start area weather is low of 61 and high of 87. Race temp will be in the 60s for the elites. Even though it is a US Champ race, does anyone know if there will be pacesetters? I haven't heard if LA is bringing in any fast foreign runners or is all the $$ being spent on the US runners.
Ryan 2:13-14
Sara 2:32
sara 2:29
ryan 2:19
2:13 for ryan hall!! CMON!!! He can barely run that for half marathon pace right now!
Sara 2:34; Ryan DNF
sarah- 2:30 ish.
Ryan- DNF or 2:18-20. Gets easily beaten by Canaday.
The correct answer is simple:
They will both do god's will.
yosart wrote:
The correct answer is simple:
They will both do god's will.
Agreed and it is clear that god doesn't want Ryan to run anything earth shattering. Most likely god will want him to run 2:19ish.
Temps will be in the 70s. It will be a slow day. On paper, Sara is in sub 2:30 shape with a 70 min 1/2 in Houston. I would be surprised if she ran sub 2:35. Ryan is always the enigma. Before the tailwind Boston race, he was running lazy 1/2 marathons leading everyone to think that he would fall apart during the marathon. But he ran a great race. Given how long it has been since he had a good marathon (2012 trials), I would think that 2:15 is about what to expect from him in the heat.
I don't know why you're posting using my name but whatever... sage looks to be in good shape and hall is an idiot with no recent track record. i stand firm and say sage gets an OTQ and hall probably DNFs because god turned off the AC.
I suppose I never put my predictions. I'm guessing winning time will be super slow, like 2:12-2:13, after a conservative start and a windup near the finish. Hall will run 2:15-2:16 and perform a fair amount better than he did at Boston, but be a few minutes back at the finish, while Sara will be around 2:35.
Temps will be mid-60s at the start and low-mid 70s when they finish, so that's probably not so terrible. It's more of a big deal for back of the packers. If the average temp is 70 while they're running, Daniels puts an otherwise 2:13 runner (shot in the dark for Ryan, which I really hope isn't overly generous right now) at 2:15:15.
Since Sage got mentioned, I'll say that while I'd like to see him succeed, I just don't think he has a realistic chance of qualifying for the trials. A 2:16:52 (his PR) would be worth 2:19:11 in this weather. He'd have to be in shape to run 2:15:38 and beat his PR by 1:14 in good weather to hit a 2:17:59 here. He's a great runner, but I just don't see any reason that he should be at a level so much higher than he was when he ran his best ever marathon. Not trying to be pessimistic, but realistic. Maybe he can qualify in Chicago if he's willing to take more time to work on the marathon.
With the current forecast I am revising my predications:
Ryan 2:14-2:15
Sara 2:34
Noticed the comment on Sage. He ran his PR at the 2011 RNR San Diego ( I ran the race too and had a horrible day). It wasn't a cool day. Start temp was in the low 60's, no marine layer, and when he finished it was likely near 70 if not a little over. Not as hot as LA will be but if he is in at least as good as shape as when he ran his PR, with the LA heat, I think he has a good shot at 2:18 or just under it. LA is a faster course then San Diego, especially since they modified the San Diego to put the biggest climb from 20-21 versus 10-11 where it used to be.
Barrister wrote:
With the current forecast I am revising my predications:
Ryan 2:14-2:15
Sara 2:34
Noticed the comment on Sage. He ran his PR at the 2011 RNR San Diego ( I ran the race too and had a horrible day). It wasn't a cool day. Start temp was in the low 60's, no marine layer, and when he finished it was likely near 70 if not a little over. Not as hot as LA will be but if he is in at least as good as shape as when he ran his PR, with the LA heat, I think he has a good shot at 2:18 or just under it. LA is a faster course then San Diego, especially since they modified the San Diego to put the biggest climb from 20-21 versus 10-11 where it used to be.
Interesting. I didn't realize that. Well, perhaps he can get it then.
Sage was focusing on the marathon in 2011. He was running with Brooks-Hansons and probably did some heat acclimatization. The Brooks-Hansons runners always seem to run good in lousy conditions. I don't know if Sage has done anything for the heat? I do know that he has a ton more mileage under his belt over the last 4 years. I don't know how much of it is marathon specific? I will be pulling for Sage because I enjoy his videos ( minus the self promotion),
if you see Ryan, could you inquire about my signed 41st Day poster?
Ryan: 2:24
Sara: 2:33
Times aren't going to be fast, but Ryan's gotta get going in the right direction. A 2:14:30 would almost count as good news for him at this point. I guess I'm predicting a 2:16.
For Sara, 2:33 on a good day, probably 2:36 on Sunday.
Ryan's done DNF or DNS and will probably switch to triathlon competitions in a couple years like Alan Webb did. That's my prediction.
