It's FINALLY here. So who's going to man-up at Foot Locker? (Boys predictions)

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Reiser was sick the week of FLMW and still ran tough (beat Hacker by 10 seconds). He may not be feeling 100% yet- give the kid a break.

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Yes. Reiser was sick at FLMW and still sick last week leading up to NXN. Hopefully he'll be full strength for FL. His first loss this year was to Fisher at the aforementioned FLMW. PR's are 4:09 and 8:54.

Folks keep referencing Hacker taking 10th at FLMW as a knock. Remind me again how many qualify for FLN? Oh that's right. And remind me what one would do when one has two national championship races looming? Chill and just qualify you say? Yeah you know what I think you might be on to something. Kid was jogging.

Shamrockwiz wrote:

Folks keep referencing Hacker taking 10th at FLMW as a knock. Remind me again how many qualify for FLN? Oh that's right. And remind me what one would do when one has two national championship races looming? Chill and just qualify you say? Yeah you know what I think you might be on to something. Kid was jogging.

So was Fisher, and he ran 14:59 there.

Trautman had mono his Sr xc season

God among men wrote:

Shamrockwiz wrote:

Folks keep referencing Hacker taking 10th at FLMW as a knock. Remind me again how many qualify for FLN? Oh that's right. And remind me what one would do when one has two national championship races looming? Chill and just qualify you say? Yeah you know what I think you might be on to something. Kid was jogging.

So was Fisher, and he ran 14:59 there.

In a post race interview, the interviewer assumed that Hacker had a bad day but he said that he perfectly executed his plan of running just to qualify.

God among men wrote:

Shamrockwiz wrote:

Folks keep referencing Hacker taking 10th at FLMW as a knock. Remind me again how many qualify for FLN? Oh that's right. And remind me what one would do when one has two national championship races looming? Chill and just qualify you say? Yeah you know what I think you might be on to something. Kid was jogging.

So was Fisher, and he ran 14:59 there.

God among men wrote:

[quote]Shamrockwiz wrote:

Folks keep referencing Hacker taking 10th at FLMW as a knock. Remind me again how many qualify for FLN? Oh that's right. And remind me what one would do when one has two national championship races looming? Chill and just qualify you say? Yeah you know what I think you might be on to something. Kid was jogging.

So was Fisher, and he ran 14:59 there.

Fisher also had 2 weeks until his next big race, hacker only one week.

This field better not let it go out in 4:50! 4:34-:38 should be automatic for the top 10 or so, especially at Balboa. If they're there to really test themselves, we should 4:28-:30.Anyone know what Davis and Williams splits were back in '86? Davis celebrated (hand raised, yelling) from 100m out and still ran 14:38. Unbelievable.We have as much talent in this field as the '85/'86 front runners. Let's make it happen boys!!

But... wrote:

First mile in 4:50 I bet, very bunched up. I predict Ostberg makes a move either on or after the first hill to string out the field. Either he or Dressel will have to make a secondary move later in the race if they want to break away. Mantz isn't yet in shape enough to stay with. Pace is probably moderately fast until the big hill the second time, where Tamagno, Armstrong, Ostberg, or Dressel is going to try to win the race. Fisher, Hunter, Maton, or Hacker will try to stay with. If the latter four are with the former four by the time there's 400 meters to go, one of the latter is going to win.

The winning time is going to be 14:51-58.

I can't see this race going out at a 4:50. Virtually all of the contenders for the title are returning and have raced at this stage before. They know that if they go out like that, they don't have a chance at beating Fisher. My guess is that you might see Ostberg or Armstrong; somebody hungry and more strength based try and take charge. Then again it could be some outsider too, as it has been in recent years. But even then, they will be pressured to run faster from the Ostbergs or the Matons. Would be great to see ~4:30 for the first mile split, although it's a tall order, it IS a really talented group of guys.

Second mile will probably see somebody like Blair Hurlock last year at the halfway point to try and string out the field a little; maybe Mantz? But I think that it will quickly disintegrate into several big moves by a lot of those contenders. They have to know going into the race that they can't win if they leave it to the last mile.

I could really see the last mile coming down to a showdown of 4-6 guys though, seeing as past Fisher, there really isn't any position that is easy to define. And they're all pretty close stat-wise and similar runners. Though I think Fisher has to be the favorite, I think it is really a toss-up for second, although Futsum Z. typically has the edge.

And now to answer the damn question. I think Mantz will make a bold move, Reisser could make a big one, Tamagno could surprise, Ostberg could do it and I think that Hacker's display at NXN shows that he has what it takes too. But I truly think that Fisher is the gutsiest runner to toe the line and will only pull out an outstanding time if the field pulls him to it.

FIN

It should also be noted that Reinhart from the West region shouldn't be discounted either. Full price for that hunk of meat. But seriously, don't be surprised to see him in the mix either, not unlike Joe Hardy last year.

I think the pace will be quick, not just at the start. Expect 5 guys to go sub 15. We haven't seen Fischer or Maton kick off a fast pace so that could be a game changer. I would not be surprised to see this race play out like the year Fout won, with some outstanding guys just not ready/able to hang in the middle. Fisher has to be the favorite, but he has not been pushed like he will be pushed on Saturday. We will find out how good he is with the target on this back. Things can change from October to December, so expect some of your darlings that ran fast early in the year have already peaked. There are a few you have not mentioned that will be in the mix. Don't discount the Midwest guys.

This really is going to be an amazing race. 5 out of last year's top 7 return, plus throw in a 14:16 guy (Ostberg), a guy who ran 14:36 at South regional (Hunter), the new Mt. Sac record holder in 14:23 (Tamagno), and this has got to be the deepest race in a while.

Thoughts on this analysis below evaluating the NXN times?

http://www.runnerspace.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1130392

Those ratings are ridiculous. As usual, inflated for the WA runners. So, so dumb.

dma wrote:

Thoughts on this analysis below evaluating the NXN times?

http://www.runnerspace.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1130392

I want them to go out fast as much as you, but I don't think it's going to happen. Last year was 4:53, the previous years it's been 4:47-4:52; not in at least a decade has it been faster than 4:44 or so. Who's going to push? Mantz isn't in shape to do it, and in any case, his MO the last two years has been to move up throughout the race to the front by the end, and it's worked for him. Ostberg might not be in shape to do it either, and a mid-race surge is likely more successful for them than a hard pace from the start. Everyone else has very good reason to wait for the middle miles or the final kick. If I'm wrong, I'll be glad, and I'll come back here to eat my words, but I just don't see the race going out fast. I still think it will finish relatively quick--14:51-58 is quite decent.

3200/2Mile

Fisher: 8:51.28

Hunter: 8:53.81y

Ostberg: 8:52.64

Mantz: 8:52.90

Armstrong: 8:55.92

Tamagno: 8:56.86

Dressel: 8:57.00

Maton: 8:18.66 3k

Hacker: 9:14.54

Pollard 8:50.43

Pollard deserves to be in the discussion. Also that 9:14 by Hacker doesnt mean much...he has been beating sub-9 guys this XC season including Pollard at Roy Griak.

ugh not again... wrote:

Those ratings are ridiculous. As usual, inflated for the WA runners. So, so dumb.

dma wrote:

Thoughts on this analysis below evaluating the NXN times?

http://www.runnerspace.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1130392

Tully is much more accurate / logical. The races that have top WA and OR runners always scores about 3 points too high in the watchout ratings. There's no way he doesn't realize it either. It's blatant and shameful.A 15:11 on the NXN course, even in soft conditions, isn't worth a damn 204. Give me a break.

dma wrote:

Thoughts on this analysis below evaluating the NXN times?

http://www.runnerspace.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1130392