mcmillan calculator

The calculator is stupid. It didn't account for me screwing up my calorie intake and bonking at mile 18. How hard could it be for it to know that would happen?

(Stuff happens at the marathon race distance that you have not experienced in your training or in your other races. Don't get uptight about time goals on your first marathon).

The McMillan calculator was off by 17 minutes for me.

However, I did do a marathon prediction workout of 10 Yasso 800 meter repeats and it was SPOT ON!

If I use my mile time, it was off by 33 minutes. If I use my 5k time, it was off by 29 minutes, and if I use my 10k time, it was off by 21 minutes.

Ok how long of rest between each repeat?

It is pretty good. It does not factor in (a) excuses or (b) most runners are not fully prepared for the marathon.

If you are properly trained and experienced, it is extremely accurate from half to full. Remember that it assumes you are correctly trained for each distance. So if you run your 5k pr, you are probably not equally trained for the marathon.

Jog a lap between each Yasso 800.

Ok so how do i Know if i'm properly trained for the marathon? I mean I run 50mpw.. Usually easy pace, one tempo, rolling hills, and a long run each wk. My long run is at 17miles.. Only have done it once.. Do I need to be constantly running 20 milers once a wk? I dont like the sounds of that haha.

I just wanna qualify for Boston, run it, and be done w/ marathons to be quite frank.

50mpw will not produce equal times from shorter distances to marathon.

When you hit the Yassos in your goal pace, you'll know.

ok so if i can run 10x800m w/ 400m recovery in 3:10 I can run a 3:10 marathon?

kickitoubro wrote:

ok so if i can run 10x800m w/ 400m recovery in 3:10 I can run a 3:10 marathon?

Absolutely not! I see no correlation between the two at all. McMillan calculator is relevant in the 1/2 marathon & down distances. A full is a whole diff. story. We've actually discussed this quite a lot over the past few years. I could easily kick out those 3:10 1/2's, but running a 3:10 full would take more things to go right than is statistically possible.

ok so what should you run a half in to run a 3:10 marathon?

kickitoubro wrote:

ok so what should you run a half in to run a 3:10 marathon?

Again, my point & the belief shared by others is that the Full is an entirely different race onto itself. So many diff. energy systems at play there. For ex. I've never taken even a sip of water in the 10 or 12 half marathons I've run, yet am sucking down water, gatorade, gels, food! etc….. in the fulls. SO hard to predict marathon times based on 10K races, workouts or whatever, other than previous fulls. YOUR best marathon predictor will be the latest one you've run.BUT to answer your question anyway, I had to be in 1:25 half shape to have a good crack at a 3:10

1:30 should be a stroll in the park.

Do 4-5x 2 miles in 13:40 with 400m recovery.

Yea I've ran a high 1:26 bout 3months ago on a fairly challenging course. Haven't really ventured into the land of unknown an awful lot til lately (miles 14-26)

Doo wrote:

If I use my mile time, it was off by 33 minutes. If I use my 5k time, it was off by 29 minutes, and if I use my 10k time, it was off by 21 minutes.

You are probably undertrained for the marathon.

Among those not coming from a very, very solid aerobic base, most find that McMillan predicts a ceiling when extrapolating from 5/10 to marathon. It will show would you COULD (should) run if you properly prepared for the distance.

*stipe wrote:

It is pretty good. It does not factor in (a) excuses or (b) most runners are not fully prepared for the marathon.

If you are properly trained and experienced, it is extremely accurate from half to full. Remember that it assumes you are correctly trained for each distance. So if you run your 5k pr, you are probably not equally trained for the marathon.

^^

It predicted I'd be 10 minutes faster. But that is off a 10k XC time, and my long run was only 12 miles. I did my first marathon 2 weeks after college XC ended, and I had only been running XC 2 seasons at that point. I was on track for what McMillan predicts through 21 miles but did some walking the last 5 miles which cost me those 10 minutes.

4 1/2 months later I ran my 2nd marathon and was within 2 minutes of what McMillan predicted.