Bekele vs Farah in London Marathon: who you got and in what time?

i don't think their half splits really mean much in the swing of things

that was a race, not a time trial. the only reason they ran faster than 63 is because Geb's only chance to win was to push the pace early.

and i wouldn't expect anything great from KB or mo on their first time out. maybe 2:06 if they go out in 62:30-63:30.

but if it's london, somebody will be running 61:45-62:10, and both will follow. probably gonna be another ugly finish...everybody is trying to lower the WR right now

No contest. Between Farah and Bekele? Easily Bekele. Did you see how easily he beat Farah in the half?

jsk wrote:

No contest. Between Farah and Bekele? Easily Bekele. Did you see how easily he beat Farah in the half?

I did. He absolutely crushed him by 1 second!

neither kennster nor mo are going to shake the earth for the M next year ( maybe in 1 or 2y time they may drop a real good clocking )

hermens is deluded if he thinks kennster is going to break the wr anytime soon ( or even ever )

kennster hasn't looked better than a 26'50 guy in last coupla years ( 26'43 in brussels '11 - he's looked worse since then - dropping out of circuit races this year ) & he was training flat-out for the 10k ( even targeted that over 5k for medal races )

these 2"03 guys like mutai/kipsang/dennis/perhaps even 'manny mutai were probably in 26'30/26'40 shape in their M races & they weren't even training for the 10k !!!

if you want some evidence for this, eliud just stepped up from 10k where he had an ancient 26'49pb from '07 ( run off just 5k training ) & a 26'53 from kennster's 26'43 race in '11

i think he was better than that 26'53

( tired looking run & he was training for 5k again not 10k - came 7th in 5k final in '11 )

in '12 when he entered kenyan 10k trials in eugene & was seen as a real threat to make team, but coud only manage 7th in 27'11 when really training for 10k

i'm pretty sure he was in close to 26'40 shape before stepping up to M this year ( actually training exclusively for 10k ) & he's young enough not for him to have lost that 10k ability

( like paula ran 2"18/30'01/2"17wr in '02 )

he managed 2"04+ ( just missing dipping below 2"04 ) & well beaten by kipsang

bottom line is that i highly doubt kipsang was slower than the maybe 26'40 shape eliud was in in that 2"04

given that kennster is probably no better than 26'50 for 10k this year ( he coudn't even make 10k team ) & he was training for 10k exclusively this year, i highly doubt he has a chance against 2"03 guys who coud probably run 26'30/26'40 off just their M training

if kennster runs anywhere below 2"05 in london, it woud be a monumental achievement

just ignore hermen's delusional thinking - how does kennster who training flat-out for 10k doesn't appear capable of cracking 26'50 expect to beat 2"03 guys capable of 26'30/26'40 off non-10k training ???

Thing about the HM was that Bekele outraced Mo (dropping off, coming back, breaking on the downhill).

In the Marathon I think they'll both struggle from a lack of racing experience at this distance. Will be good experience for them, but I doubt their times will be winning ones.

There is a learning curve in the marathon so I don't see either breaking 2:05 the first time out. I would give Farah a slight edge only because Bekele has been injured frequently the last few years. I am not sure if Bekele will start healthy. Both will run 2:05 - 2:06 if healthy but neither will win the first time at London.

ventolin^3 wrote:

given that kennster is probably no better than 26'50 for 10k this year ( he coudn't even make 10k team ) & he was training for 10k exclusively this year,

What does not making the 10k team have to do with how fast he was this year? They don't have a team time trial do they?

I have to agree w ventolin for sure. I don't think either will do particularly well by today's marathon standards. I can't see either of them scaring the world record if even close to it. I'm not convinced that Bekele is healthy yet because if he were, he'd be running well on the track and he did not this year. He beat Farah yes but I still don't feel like he's his old self and in order to be competitive at the marathon you have to be in pretty fast 10000m shape I would say. I can't stand Farah and I love Bekele but I predict that Farah will beat Bekele and maybe run a 2:05-2:07 and Bekele will DNF.

Bekele wins easily. The only reason Mo was close in the half was because he could use his very good kick to make it interesting, and that's only because he still HAD a kick to begin with. Bekele will pull away far enough away and the distance will get to Mo's finishing speed so that a kick won't be able to make up the gap and there won't even be a kick left in Mo's legs come the full distance. Advantage Bekele.

Would race organizers even want to bring in Bekele since they want to headline Mo and make him look really good?

So let me get this straight, Ventolin and you believe that Bekele and Farah won't have good races as their is a learning curve for the Marathon? How do you two explain Dennis Kimetto then? What was his learning curve when he produced a 2:04:15 effort while obviously easing off. If an unknown farmer has almost zero learning curve his first try out, then why can't two of the worlds greatest ever distance runners run well at the marathon?

son of kimetto wrote:

then why can't two of the worlds greatest ever distance runners run well at the marathon?

Farah is in no way one of the world's greatest ever distance runners until he actually runs some fast distance times. Until then, he's just one of the world's greatest ever sit and kickers off of very slow paces.

Farah is a 1500m/3k runner. He could maybe break 2:10 which is pretty good for a mid dist guy but he won't ever get much faster than that

Bekele 2:05:58 < Farah 2:06:22

12:53 & 26:43 aren't really slow.

frogwoman wrote:

12:53 & 26:43 aren't really slow.

And they aren't really fast

ventolin^3 wrote:

perhaps even 'manny mutai

You've gone too far

Because Kenny B is no longer training for a flat out 10k, especially if he is going to move up in distance.

Speaking of Kipchoge, I don't know about this year with marathon specific training, but last year, it was clear he was training for the 10k as his 5k was 12:55 and his half was 59:20.

Don't forget that Bekele still did manage to run down Mo, judging by his 1:00 HM and his 3:29 1500 were great indicators that he had a 26 mid-high 10k in him.

I think if Salazar actually gets his marathon training right for Mo (who is clearly more talented than Ritz) AND Bekele does as well, they both could drop a very respectable time next year in London.

This would be a dream battle if these guys could line up on the same starting line:

Kimmeto

W Kipsang

Kipchoge

Farah

K Bekele

G Mutai

E Mutai

Makau (if he stays injury free)

with a special appearance by Galen Rupp to pace them out past 25k

p^r wrote:

Farah is a 1500m/3k runner. He could maybe break 2:10 which is pretty good for a mid dist guy but he won't ever get much faster than that

no

he is a 3k/5k guy

same as daniel komen