Farah's chances of winning London?

0.1523%

I calculated it around 5% based on other runners' predicted finish times and Mo's predicted debut time based on other fast track athletes' debut times. Really I think it's higher because I think he'll debut slightly better than most other fast track guys.

almost no chance wrote:

0.1523%

drivel

~ 0.1524%

A very , VERY good chance of winning. As I have said before on this site there is too much at stake in terms of finance/reputation/commercial success for athlete/coach/Nike for Farah to try anything without the whole project being analysed very carefully and the chances of success being assessed as very high.

Why would Mo try a marathon simply in order to run , say , 2:08? Whose reputation/balance sheet would benefit from that?

Of course , nothing can be totally guaranteed in any race let alone a marathon but do not be surprised by a winning run by Farah in a very fast time (if conditions are OK - another factor in England in April).

Low dose SARMs with the Lucky Charms

Depends if the fix is in or not. In a fair race I'd say he has about a 3-5% of winning, but maybe some other contenders will be given a secret incentive not to win.

He has a chance if every plane flying in from Africa crashes. Seriously, he is a great runner but nobody gets the marathon right on the first attempt. I wish him luck but he will not win.

I presume he's on a different drug regimen for the marathon

Actually, pretty good.

Farah's got a bunch of advantages over the Africans.

1. Top notch nutrition: Salazar has him on a high protein diet that includes healthy animal fats (n-3, saturated) etc and omits most processed foods and simple carbs from grains. Compare that with the extreme high carb of the Kenyans and you will understand why he has a 6 pack.

2. Heavy weights: El Sal has him doing squats (the single best exercise) with heavy weights in an explosive way. Have you seen the Kenyans? Pink dumbbells all the way, if at all.

3. Sprints: Farah frequently trains all out high intensity sprints of short duration (the way we are supposed to run) to recruit more of his fasttwitch muscles that can be used for long distance running too.

4. Medical resources: Salazars doctors monitor all vital markers frequently and can adjust (with nutrition and legal (!) supplements) immediately if there are any off marks. The Kenyans? Well, try to find a hygienic clinic in Nairobi. Good luck.

5. Western cultures: it helps that Mo believes in himself and works hard according to a STRICT schedule and not just "by feel" like the Africans do.

In a way, many of these principles are shared among CrossFit Endurance, too.

So the Kenyans are doing good it all wrong ?

Have you spoken to renato about this yet?

Like a previous poster commented

The first thing that struck me about mos switch to marathon is that he's not doing this to make up the numbers

There's too much Nike €€€€£££ at stake

I suspect fowl play

Yeah…those chickens really have a stake in it…or should that be steak?

just sayin wrote:

So the Kenyans are doing good it all wrong ?

Have you spoken to renato about this yet?

The Kenyans have to eggs to the wall approach. Have thousand of runners run unstructured workouts and 1 or 2 of them succeed. Up until recently, there were not a lot of western athlete/coaches who looked at Marathon training with a holistic approach like Salazar does. That's why the Africans were able to dominate for so long. It looks like this period is coming to an end now.

Ok well let's see how mo does first

Renato has a better track record than el sal

At this point in time

And you forgot about the dope btw.. That helps a lot

just sayin wrote:

Renato has a better track record

And you forgot about the dope btw

Do you see the elephant in the room?

fred wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8Nf6nKuOQc

Crammie knows what mo is up to!

He's no fool now since he realised what had been going on with his rival aouita

And his idol el guerroujs

Nutella1 wrote:

just sayin wrote:

Renato has a better track record

And you forgot about the dope btw

Do you see the elephant in the room?

Which elephant? The dope,?

Dope is the difference between winning and losing

Always has bean always will bee

Xfit_guy_the_real_1 wrote:

3. Sprints: Farah frequently trains all out high intensity sprints of short duration (the way we are supposed to run) to recruit more of his fasttwitch muscles that can be used for long distance running too.

for distance runners, its absolutely true that the recruitment of fast twitch fibers helps speed-endurance. its my opinion, however, that your formula for this recruitment is wrong. the best way to accomplish this is to run LONG, to fatigue your slow twitch muscles to the point where fast twitch muscles begin to be recruited. sprints are good for speed, for sure... but it's the long run that counts for marathon distance and fast twitch recruitment.

would love to hear any counterpoint from some more seasoned distance runners.