Five Thoughts On The 2014 NYC Half Marathon
March 17, 2014
Mo Farah To Headline 2014 NYC Half Marathon March 16th
February 26, 2014
Can't we just give him at least one shot at the marathon for crying out loud before we make any definite judgements. Yes its unlikely he'll win first time out, but if he does then I guarantee most of the same posters here will switch their viewpoints from him being an acute specialist to someone of great versatility.
Even if he doesn't win his first, he'll likely have another crack at two or three marathons before considering moving back to track.
ventolin^3 wrote:
HardLoper wrote:I have always thought the 10k predictions seemed too high. Being in WR 10,000 shape is a definite possibility for him.i do find that a bit of a stretch
but you never know, like when paula moved to M, her 10k got down to 30-flat & probably more like 29'40/29'45 in her 2"15 shape, mo might set some huge 10k pbs if he ever comes back to it
I thought you always knew
How about the Emperor???
This is silly wrote:
Can someone please post the names of the ETH and KEN marathoners who would have won the medals in the last three world 10000s and 5000s?
Then just let us know which marathoners would win the 5000 in '15 and '16. We can just send them the medals and forego the races.
I mean Kipchoge ran some of the best marathons last year but could not make the Kenyan Olympic 10000 team but by all means lets just give him the medal for a 10000 in 2015.
Crickets crickets crickets...
Excellent post
10K isn't middle distance.
This is silly wrote:
Can someone please post the names of the ETH and KEN marathoners who would have won the medals in the last three world 10000s and 5000s?
Then just let us know which marathoners would win the 5000 in '15 and '16. We can just send them the medals and forego the races.
I mean Kipchoge ran some of the best marathons last year but could not make the Kenyan Olympic 10000 team but by all means lets just give him the medal for a 10000 in 2015.
The point is that if Kipchoge and all the other top marathoners had kept to the track and maxed their 5/10k potential instead of moving to the roads then they would be better 5/10k runners than Mo, who is primarily a 1500/3k runner.
Somlier wrote:
The point is that if Kipchoge and all the other top marathoners had kept to the track and maxed their 5/10k potential instead of moving to the roads then they would be better 5/10k runners than Mo, who is primarily a 1500/3k runner.
Yeah if only there were a huge contingent of long distance track guys within about 3/4 of a second per lap of the 5k...
Oh wait!
http://www.letsrun.com/2012/paris-0706.phpSub 12:50 for six guys, the fastest of whom closed in 54?? And some back-benchers at that, John Kipkoech at 12:49 and as far as I can tell no championship appearances?
Mo's competition is good. We need to put this trope to rest.
We have no idea if the top marathoners could be competitive at 5k and 10k. On the one hand, their times suggest great 10k potential. On the other, that they've chosen the marathon suggests a self-selection away from events that require a big kick.
What we do know is that Mo wins track races because he can put in a 51-53 400 at the end of all types of races, including after rounds. Why no one else can do that anymore is hard to say.
Also more speculatively, it seems that a lack of cooperative tactics is really holding the Kenyans and Ethiopians back. No one knows whether Mo would have the best kick in a sub 12:55/sub 26:40 race, and he might, but it looks like their error to not even try.
As to whether Mo can do well at the marathon, we'll have to see. It's too early to tell.
This is coming from someone who is suspicious of Mo's success because it's too dramatic of a shift too late in life.
ScottEvil wrote:
Yeah if only there were a huge contingent of long distance track guys within about 3/4 of a second per lap of the 5k...
Oh wait!
http://www.letsrun.com/2012/paris-0706.phpSub 12:50 for six guys, the fastest of whom closed in 54?? And some back-benchers at that, John Kipkoech at 12:49 and as far as I can tell no championship appearances?
Mo's competition is good. We need to put this trope to rest.
We have no idea if the top marathoners could be competitive at 5k and 10k. On the one hand, their times suggest great 10k potential. On the other, that they've chosen the marathon suggests a self-selection away from events that require a big kick.
What we do know is that Mo wins track races because he can put in a 51-53 400 at the end of all types of races, including after rounds. Why no one else can do that anymore is hard to say.
Also more speculatively, it seems that a lack of cooperative tactics is really holding the Kenyans and Ethiopians back. No one knows whether Mo would have the best kick in a sub 12:55/sub 26:40 race, and he might, but it looks like their error to not even try.
As to whether Mo can do well at the marathon, we'll have to see. It's too early to tell.
This is coming from someone who is suspicious of Mo's success because it's too dramatic of a shift too late in life.
incredibly well said
Only two people in the whole world have run a faster 10,000 than Farah in the last five years.
Farah fell in a half marathon, got up, and ran as hard as he could, he closed faster than Mutai. Way faster. He ran the last 6km 9 seconds faster than Mutai (one of the top marathoners in the world). He ran a world class time will having fallen down.
He will be one of the top 3 at London 2014.
me.... wrote:
ScottEvil wrote:Yeah if only there were a huge contingent of long distance track guys within about 3/4 of a second per lap of the 5k...
Oh wait!
http://www.letsrun.com/2012/paris-0706.phpSub 12:50 for six guys, the fastest of whom closed in 54?? And some back-benchers at that, John Kipkoech at 12:49 and as far as I can tell no championship appearances?
Mo's competition is good. We need to put this trope to rest.
We have no idea if the top marathoners could be competitive at 5k and 10k. On the one hand, their times suggest great 10k potential. On the other, that they've chosen the marathon suggests a self-selection away from events that require a big kick.
What we do know is that Mo wins track races because he can put in a 51-53 400 at the end of all types of races, including after rounds. Why no one else can do that anymore is hard to say.
Also more speculatively, it seems that a lack of cooperative tactics is really holding the Kenyans and Ethiopians back. No one knows whether Mo would have the best kick in a sub 12:55/sub 26:40 race, and he might, but it looks like their error to not even try.
As to whether Mo can do well at the marathon, we'll have to see. It's too early to tell.
This is coming from someone who is suspicious of Mo's success because it's too dramatic of a shift too late in life.
incredibly well said
You guys are dumb. That is not well said at all.
One of your statements is just flat out a lie. Farah cannot run a 51-53 in all types of races. He's only ever won using the same tactic. That is the exact opposite of "all types of races".
Your other statement about self selection is also wrong. They have moved up to the marathon and roads for MONEY. There is no money in track races for a 5th place finisher. Nor or there very many 5ks and 10ks at all per year. There is a multitude of major marathons and the road races per year compared to track.
And yes we do have an idea that the top marathoners could be good at 5k/10k. Have you never heard of Wanjiru, Kipchoge, or Haile? Some of these guys are 1-2 minutes faster than they are. Wanjiru holds the world junior record for 10k if I'm not mistaken (faster than Farah's PR... as a junior).
Your other statement about these guys being good is also false. Yes, they have fast PRs but they can't hold that shape for any length of time it appears (look at the crappy indoor performances and 10k peperformances last year of the Ethiopians). They also lack any sort of tactical brains. Why would you continue to sit and kick against a 3:28 1500m runner who has successfully sat and kicked against you 4 times???
They aren't good. They are fast but dumb. Or maybe this stems from my prior point of them not being able to stay in shape for any length of time which would make it impossible to use a fast race tactic because they are no longer in that shape. Who knows. But either way, these guys aren't good.
"dumb guy you," you are completely ignorant. Here's what made me crack up: "Why would you sit and kick against a... runner who has sat and kicked against you 4 times???"
"Against "you" 4 times??" You must think "the Africans" are just one homogeneous group of people? Have you considered each of them are individuals with individual capabilities and personalities?
When did Dejene Gebremeskel get kicked down 4 times against Mo Farah? I suppose he was beaten once, in the Olympic 5k, but he matched the last lap of Farah from lane 2, he just was in the wrong position. He ran a good 10K but his PR is still technically slower. So wouldn't sit-and-kick make perfect sense for him in a 10K?
When was Ibraham Jeilan outkicked against Mo 4 times? Oh wait, he outkicked Mo. And almost did it again after two years of injury.
When was Edwin Soi outkicked 4 times? Has he even been in 4? It is pretty clear he's not going to beat Mo in a fast or slow race so I don't see how it's dumb to race for 2nd place.
But no, you probably don't even know Dejene's name. He's just "the Africans" and you have it all figured out from your American armchair.
Maybe "the Americans" should get their shit together and try to win their first 5k/10k Olympic gold since 1964.
The only reason my statements crack you up is because you're an idiot.
I never said that the Africans were just some homogeneous group. What in the world does their personality have anything to do with this? I never said that each of those guys raced against Farah 4 times. "You" is equivalent to "the field" and that includes Americans, Ethiopians, and anyone else.
Sure I don't know all of the Africans' names but I don't know the names of most of the other competitors either. They are all too new to me. The only ones that I know (and know how to spell) are Farah, Lagat, Rupp, and Kipchoge. Yes, there are as much 'the Africans' as the americans are 'the americans' and the english are 'the english'. I don't see what's so wrong about me not being able to name every single runner on the track. And no, i'm not sitting in my american armchair because I'm not even american.
I don't know why you're so hostile and so anti-american. I think the entire field needs to get their act together regardless of their nationality and stop handing these races over to Farah. Plenty of countries haven't won a medal in years not just the Americans.
Thesmallcheese wrote:
Can't we just give him at least one shot at the marathon for crying out loud before we make any definite judgements. Yes its unlikely he'll win first time out, but if he does then I guarantee most of the same posters here will switch their viewpoints from him being an acute specialist to someone of great versatility.
Even if he doesn't win his first, he'll likely have another crack at two or three marathons before considering moving back to track.
I am not sure I totally agree with you but one thing is for sure. If Farah is falling down and blacking out in a half marathon, I don't see how can ever run a good time or win a major marathon. The marathon is a beast and the half marathon is misnamed. A marathon is way more than twice are hard.
dumb guy you wrote:
Sure I don't know all of the Africans' names but I don't know the names of most of the other competitors either. They are all too new to me. The only ones that I know (and know how to spell) are Farah, Lagat, Rupp, and Kipchoge.
Well then you just admitted your own ignorance.
I would like to know which of the contenders "handed it over to Farah"?
If you're going to call them dumb, or say they have no tactical brains (which you did), you have to know who you're talking about. I pointed out that when you look at them individually. You could only come up with your bizarre race analysis by looking at the Africans as some sort of homogeneous mechanical block, and then I can only crack up.
World Record Expert wrote:
I pointed out that when you look at them individually
Should say: "I pointed out that when you look at them individually, they actually ran quite smart"
Sure, Mo would NEVER have won medals. Right you are.
Yeah tons of marathon guys have run 26:46 and can run 52 and 53s at the end of a 5K or 10K on the track. And we all know that when marathoners line in in the 1500, they rack up those 3:28 clockings all the time.
Just because Mo can beat all the sub 12:50 5,000 men all the time doesn't mean he can beat those super-speedy marathoners, no sir!
I agree that Farah is a useless weasel who could barely win a high school mile if all those wonderful marathoners would deign to step on a track and blow MO to pieces.
dumb guy you wrote:
You guys are dumb. That is not well said at all.
One of your statements is just flat out a lie. Farah cannot run a 51-53 in all types of races. He's only ever won using the same tactic.
Ok...not ALL types of races. But surely you'd admit there's been some variation at the championship/diamond league level? 2011 was a 13:23 race, his PR is from winning a 12:53. 30 seconds? What about the Pre 10k he won in the 26:40s? Yes he hasn't shown the ability to win sub 12:50 or sub 26:40 races. I addressed that in my very next sentence. It's an unknown quantity. Just like marathoners' ability to win in those ranges is an unknown quantity. Let's say that I grant that every marathoner has equal to or greater than Wanjiru 10k capacity. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY HAVE A GOOD KICK. You are so confident in this unrealized potential outcome...But we just don't know.
They have moved up to the marathon and roads for MONEY. There is no money in track races for a 5th place finisher. Nor or there very many 5ks and 10ks at all per year. There is a multitude of major marathons and the road races per year compared to track.
Oh? You feel confident, looking at this observational data, that your explanatory variable accounts for ALL of the change? That the self-selection isn't even possible? Pray tell, how did you come about such valuable information about a counter-factual?
They aren't good. They are fast but dumb. Or maybe this stems from my prior point of them not being able to stay in shape for any length of time which would make it impossible to use a fast race tactic because they are no longer in that shape. Who knows. But either way, these guys aren't good.
Ok...Once again, the overconfidence problem. There are a lot of possible theories that fit the data we have. You feel very confident in your theory and dismissing other possibilities as "dumb." Is it possible -just possible - that many of these factors could be in play at once?
Steve L wrote:
Sure, Mo would NEVER have won medals. Right you are.
Yeah tons of marathon guys have run 26:46 and can run 52 and 53s at the end of a 5K or 10K on the track. And we all know that when marathoners line in in the 1500, they rack up those 3:28 clockings all the time.
Just because Mo can beat all the sub 12:50 5,000 men all the time doesn't mean he can beat those super-speedy marathoners, no sir!
I agree that Farah is a useless weasel who could barely win a high school mile if all those wonderful marathoners would deign to step on a track and blow MO to pieces.
Well, I agree with your point .. but Mo IS 2 races for 2 losses (if 2nd place is a loss) in his last 2 half marathons .. when's the last time he lost 2 races back to back on the track over a constant distance? He came 2nd last year in the Pre 5000m when he was ill. And he lost a 3000m indoors the year before to Gebremeskel. But 2 in a row?
World Record Expert wrote:
Well then you just admitted your own ignorance.
I would like to know which of the contenders "handed it over to Farah"?
If you're going to call them dumb, or say they have no tactical brains (which you did), you have to know who you're talking about. I pointed out that when you look at them individually. You could only come up with your bizarre race analysis by looking at the Africans as some sort of homogeneous mechanical block, and then I can only crack up.
Why would I need to have their names memorized in order to analyze the races? That makes zero sense. Once again, I did not look at the Africans as one homogenous block. I specifically said that I didn't so why are you saying this again? I said "the field". I never even used the word mechanical. I'm not sure if I even used the word African. You're making things up.
I don't need to memorize the the names of the Africans, the British, the Americans, or whoever else in order to analyze the races. It's very simple: Farah has won all of his championahip races using the same strategy. You would think that by the 4th or 5th time, that someone in the field (I didn't say Africans) would try something different instead of playing into what is obviously a great tactic for Farah. Why do I need to memorize everyone's names to see this pattern?