MO FARAH NYC HALF PREDICTION THREAD

1:02:37

If he is training with the likes off Geoffrey Mutai and William kipsang. Like was posted some time ago if i remember correctly.

I think needs too easy go sub 60 min, in a well paced race with good weather.

If the conditions are good, he will need this kind off half marathon speed too even stay with the main pack in the marathon on London.

I predict 59:30 for him, because New York isn't the fastest course on earth. But i am giving him a great chance at running faster then the 59:43 off Ryan Hall.

With the winter we have had in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The weather conditions could be pretty harsh for a fast time.

In good weather on a faster course like RAK I think he'd run 585x. But for NYC half considering the slower course and the weather this time of year, I peg him at somewhere between 60:30 and 62:00 depending on the weather on the given day of the race.

I believe he ran 1:00:23 in NYC in 2011. The course has been changed, but I doubt they'd make it tougher. I'll predict 1:00:08.

in 2012, a couple people dipped under 60 (Kirui and Merga, not Imane)

I'll give Farah credit for sub 60 if weather is good. 59:58

Are you all serious? Do you know the times of the top marathon guys when they run a tune-up half-marathon few weeks before the marathon? It's never that fast, more like 61-62.

A couple of remarks:

- the course is net downhill and was changed twice since Mo ran here last in 2011 (to include the tunnel and part of Harlem)

- the Westside highway stretch is usually quite windy. Hard to predict this time of the year, could be head or tailwind. 2011 was tailwind.

mako wrote:

Are you all serious? Do you know the times of the top marathon guys when they run a tune-up half-marathon few weeks before the marathon? It's never that fast, more like 61-62.

I agree. I think he will go at predicted marathon pace for London and pick it up at the end. I'd be surprised if he goes under 61.