What percent of male 20 year olds could be trained to run a lap at WR mile pace?

Within a year's time or what? If they are average people and not obese or whatever, I say 20% as well.

Closer to 35% if given time to train and sufficient financial motivation.

It depends on whether they can take the same drugs as the WR holder.

No way it's that high. Maybe 5%, being generous.

5-8% just like the number who could run 100m at Rudisha's 800m WR pace.

so a 55sec approx. 400m?

depends how long they have to train. Definitely a lot that is not very fast

SMJO wrote:

5-8% just like the number who could run 100m at Rudisha's 800m WR pace.

No way, 5% of my high school graduating class did it... and then you have all the other runners who never tried the 400, and the ones who did track but didn't train very seriously, and then all the athletic people who played other sports, and probably some who didn't try sports at all, and then you get another 2 years until age 20 to train for it.

no way that more than 1% can do it. world record mile pace is 55.65/400m.

Less than 1 percent can run sub 60. They are probably about 1 in 4 of those who could be trained to. So less than 4 percent could run sub 60.

Of those, about a fourth could run 56 which is much more difficult. So less than 1 percent could run 56.

HardLoper wrote:

No way, 5% of my high school graduating class did it... and then you have all the other runners who never tried the 400, and the ones who did track but didn't train very seriously, and then all the athletic people who played other sports, and probably some who didn't try sports at all, and then you get another 2 years until age 20 to train for it.

Wow. Hardloper actually posted something that was reasonable and not 100% retarded.

HardLoper wrote:

SMJO wrote:

5-8% just like the number who could run 100m at Rudisha's 800m WR pace.

No way, 5% of my high school graduating class did it... and then you have all the other runners who never tried the 400, and the ones who did track but didn't train very seriously, and then all the athletic people who played other sports, and probably some who didn't try sports at all, and then you get another 2 years until age 20 to train for it.

That's why I said up to 8%....

Come on, where are people getting these "less than 1%" numbers? Less than 1% under 60? I can think of 5 names from my senior class (95 guys I think) who ran 55.x or better... and about 5 more in the class above and class below. And that's just the minority of kids who signed up for track and took it seriously.

cbenson4 wrote:

Within a year's time or what? If they are average people and not obese or whatever, I say 20% as well.

They get as much time as they need; they only need to run that time once in their life.

HardLoper wrote:

[quote]SMJO wrote:

5-8% just like the number who could run 100m at Rudisha's 800m WR pace.

No way, 5% of my high school graduating class did it...

5% of your class ran a sub 55 second 400 meters?

I don't believe you.

1500 meter record is 3:26.00 = 54.93 per 400 meters

If it were life or death with unlimited time to train assuming no injuries, no disabilities, not obese and starting at an age which allows at least two years to get there Id say at least 50%.

these types of questions should be banned from Letsrun

K5 wrote:

HardLoper wrote:

No way, 5% of my high school graduating class did it...

5% of your class ran a sub 55 second 400 meters?

I don't believe you.

1500 meter record is 3:26.00 = 54.93 per 400 meters

No shit. 100 senior males is a senior class of about 200, about 1000 enrolled all classes.

Here's a couple randomly chosen milesplit meets between schools with similar enrollment. Virginia, 3A (1000)

4x400 relay winner: 3:53

maryland 3A state (1400)

only 18 sub-55's, and 6 teams under 3:40. Only 4 teams under 3:39, which 4 sub-55'ers should be able to do. At your average small high school you're not getting 4 sub-55's.

Off topic, that Maryland meet has only 3 sub-2 800's, which is typical of high school training. 14 sub-53 400's is easily enough talent for more than 3 sub-2's. But American programs are all either sprint or distance. MD starts with XC and only moves down to 800 from there; good sprinters double for points so only the slower ones move up. Nobody trains for 800 specifically.

Ply or Wilson in Cali a few years ago had like 8 kids under 50 secs in the 400m

Going to be a hypocrite here.

Don't make threads like these. Nothing productive comes out of them. Granted most Letsrun threads are unproductive, but none are trivial, repetitive and unproductive as "What % of people can run X time in X distance?"

That being said, the pace is about 55.78, not 55, which actually grants a bit of leeway.

Knock yourselves out.