What percent of Letsrun forum users can ACTUALLY break 18 minutes for a 5k?

xenonscreams wrote:

How did you cope? Did you stay involved in the sport? I feel like I'd probably get into officiating if I couldn't run. Or maybe coaching, but I'd trust myself more officiating.

I became a coach.

Rainy Day wrote:

Sub 18 here. 40 miles on a good week. Almost zero track work. Just a lot of miles at 6:00-7:00 pace.

35 yr old male. Never ran in school, never had a coach.

Sub 18 is not that hard for a guy.

I'd say its pretty close to 50%.

That is so misguided! The odds are overwhelming that 50% of Letsrun posted CAN'T run under 18:00 for 5k! Maybe...20%?

I propose a LetsRun 5k challenge. Perhaps next spring in April or May those that wish to participate can run as many 5ks as they wish during the month. You either break 18 or you don't and we tally the results.

I think it's safe to say any woman in bunhuggers can break 18.

Okay, but still, 2 flat is worth what, close to 15 flat for a 5k?

Does it really seem that odd that on a place that skews toward the distances there would be people who can do a 5k time that is not even close to as good as your friends can do for 800? I mean, on a basketball forum there would probably be a lot more people who could dunk a basketball than on here.

I can run a fast 5K right up to a basketball court, someone passes me a ball, and I dunk it. I have done this many times.

For a person that age, I'm not surprised. In fact, I know a 1:59 High School kid who I don't believe has a 5k PR under 18:00.

I could do it in the past but not now.

Trackjacket wrote:

For a person that age, I'm not surprised. In fact, I know a 1:59 High School kid who I don't believe has a 5k PR under 18:00.

The mean time for male 5k runners in the USA is about 28:30. I estimate that 5% or less can break 18:00. There were over 6 million runners who finished races last year.

Some sources indicate that there are about 18,000 unique visitors to Letsrun ...per day.

If the visitors to Letsrun reflect the general running population, then probably less than 5% can break 18.

However, if the visitors are skewed heavily toward the top runners then, perhaps more than 5% can break 18? But is there any compelling reason to believe that most visitors are the top runners?

I just took a quick look at some 5k results. In a typical 5k fun run about 1% of the entries were under 18:00.

I suspect that the more serious races might have 5%. Triple it based on the assumption that letsrun has a significant serious contingent, and you get 15%.

The 100 meter guys and the marathoners who would be considered serious runners probably can\'t do 18:00 because it is not the distance they have been training for.

My guess:

10% of letsrun could do it now

20% could do it with some specific training

40% did it at some point in their careers

There are a fair number of old people posting on this site.

The median time is about 28:30.....not the mean....

yogibear wrote:

I just took a quick look at some 5k results. In a typical 5k fun run about 1% of the entries were under 18:00.

I suspect that the more serious races might have 5%. Triple it based on the assumption that letsrun has a significant serious contingent, and you get 15%.

The 100 meter guys and the marathoners who would be considered serious runners probably can't do 18:00 because it is not the distance they have been training for.

My guess:

10% of letsrun could do it now

20% could do it with some specific training

40% did it at some point in their careers

There are a fair number of old people posting on this site.

.

10% or less is probable.