I've done three 20 milers all about 8:30-8:45 pace. Felt strong.
Recently ran a 10 mile time trial by myself at 7:18 pace.
Today ran 8x800 at 3:17 with quarter mile jog in between.
Experienced runner with multiple marathon finishes.
Predictions for a,b,c goals for race in three weeks?
what were previous marathon times
when were they run
weekly mileage
any other longer distance results - half, 10-mile, 15k, or 10k even?
Previous. pr is 3:41 but that was five years ago. Half pr is 1:30 also five years ago. Been slogging through races untrained since then except for this cycle. 10 mile time trial is most recent "race".
Did a half a bit back in 1:42, but that was in 76 degrees and 100 humidity. Race should be like 55 and 70 respectively.
Weekly mileage has averaged 40 with top of 52. That coming off 12 week base build up. But I've got lots of cumulative miles on the legs since my first marathon in 2002. Done 14 marathons or ultras totals.
I'd look at your training mileage and paces vs previous cycles if there's anything close in your history as the best gauge. One thing that jumps out from the data you posted is that your 3:41 marathon PR is a lot worse than your 1:30 half marathon PR from the same year. If there's not a good reason for the disparity then just plugging your 10 mile time into a generic equivalency calculator is likely to give a too optimistic marathon goal for you.
Using the rational here (http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id70.html), converting your 10 mile time to 10k (~43:40) and multiplying by 5.0-5.3 puts you in the range 3:38-3:51.
I've been running similar paces as you. I just ran a 3:33 on a hilly course and I may shoot for 3:25 in a couple weeks.Time depends on how well you taper, carbo load, race pacing and race course. On a relatively fast course (a few rolling hills, mostly flat) you should be between 3:25 and 3:35.
Getting better wrote:
I've done three 20 milers all about 8:30-8:45 pace. Felt strong.
Recently ran a 10 mile time trial by myself at 7:18 pace.
Today ran 8x800 at 3:17 with quarter mile jog in between.
Experienced runner with multiple marathon finishes.
Predictions for a,b,c goals for race in three weeks?
Don't shoot for a goal pace. Just go out and run smooth and relaxed the first 18 and be ready to run a hard 8 after that. I have seen "goal pace" ruin so many marathons for people that it is driving me crazy. People do not make the proper adjustment for conditions or for how they are feeling and end up a pile of goop slogging out the last five miles at a pace they would not want to run to warm up for a local 5k race.
Having a Goal Pace is not the problem. Having an *unreasonable* goal pace is a problem. I've seen novices with 10k PRs of 45min. have a marathon goal time of 3:15. Or, novices early in the race feel great and think they can run faster. At mile 2 they think "Wow, I was shooting for 3:30 today, but I feel great - I bet I could run 3:20. Better yet, I could run 3:15 and qualify for Boston. Today is my day! I better pick up the pace". In every marathon of run - during the first 8 miles, most people are breathing hard and couldn't carry out a conversation. They are running long tempo pace and I know they will be in agony at mile 21.Yet, for experienced runners that can run even or negative splits, what is bad about a goal pace? For me, I set a reasonable goal pace based on training workout times and the race course. Then, the week before a marathon, I run 10 miles at goal race pace. If it is uncomfortable, I know the goal pace is too fast and I add time. The day of, I may adjust my goal based on the weather and if nagging injuries are flairing up. I always add time for heat.Goal pace, makes my training / racing more interesting. It gives me motivation and is a good guide. Yet, it is also just one parameter. I could have a goal of averaging 87% max heart rate for the marathon.
Precious Roy wrote:
I have seen "goal pace" ruin so many marathons for people that it is driving me crazy. People do not make the proper adjustment for conditions or for how they are feeling and end up a pile of goop slogging out the last five miles at a pace they would not want to run to warm up for a local 5k race.
Precious Roy wrote:
Don't shoot for a goal pace. Just go out and run smooth and relaxed the first 18 and be ready to run a hard 8 after that. I have seen "goal pace" ruin so many marathons for people that it is driving me crazy. People do not make the proper adjustment for conditions or for how they are feeling and end up a pile of goop slogging out the last five miles at a pace they would not want to run to warm up for a local 5k race.
what this guy said.
I would go out at 8:00 pace based on those workouts alone. The 800 session is a good indicator of 5K fitness and you're showing about 20:xx ability. That's equivalent to a 3:19 or thereabouts.
If that 10 mile time trial was fairly comfortable and you've put in a deent mileage base, it's not unreasonable to go out at 3:30 pace through the first 20-22 miles.
McMillan says 3:24:55 for a 1:13 10-mile "race."
But that assumes you've put in the work. Your weekly mileage is on the low side - I've heard some people say the calculators only start to get accurate around 70 miles per week.
Add five minutes to the calculator, which leaves you at 3:30, around an 8-minute pace. What does 8-minute pace feel like for you?
If I were you, I'd go out this weekend and run 10 miles or a half marathon at 8:00 pace and see how it goes. If you think you can do better than 8:00 pace, try 7:50 pace instead and see how that feels.
A: 3:25
B: 3:30
C: 3:35
Thanks all for the replies.
I was actually thinking 3:25-3:35 with the goal of going out at 8:00 minute pace. I've done 8-10 at 7:50-7:55 several times, and it feels like work but definitely not race pace. I'm better at endurance than speed. Ran a 50 mile trail run last year without a training run over 26.
i think going out at 3:30 pace would be reasonable and a good idea, bump it up after 20 if you still feel good.
Yes, I'm hoping that 3:30 is a little conservative so that I can run negative splits if still feeling good near end. Thanks for the validation.
how did you feel after that 10-mile trial?
was that a 'race' or just a comfortably hard effort?
agree with most of the above, sounds like 8:00 pace should be sustainable
The 10 mile effort by myself was definitely pretty close to race effort at the time.
This weekend, run 8 mile easy and then run the next 10 at what you think your goal pace is. If you can do this without redlining it, that is your pace. If you do redline it, stop and take it easy the rest of the way. Go out slightly slower than this pace on race day.
all the responses above are nonsense, here it is:
press the random button on your calculator
multiply by 1000, divide by 60. This will give you your marathon time in hours.
your welcome.
Run 20 miles at goal mp. If you can't run 20 and feel comfortable (you don't bonk) then you should back off your goal by 15 seconds per mile. I would run it this weekend. Next weekend run 15 at goal mp.