So, I'll be running my first marathon on Nov 16 (Richmond) and was hoping to get some input on a time goal from the letsrun community. This is my second attempt at a marathon. I trained for one last spring but I dealt with a lot of injuries and decided to nix it only a few days before the race because I still didn't feel healthy/ready. This time around, I adjusted my training, and it's going a lot better. What do you think is a reasonable time to shoot for based on the following:
- Mileage has been 60-70 mpw most weeks recently.
- Half marathon PR of 1:19 from September, 2012. At the time was only running 40-50 mpw. I think I'm probably in 1:17 ish shape now.
- Longest runs have been 18, 20, 18, 22. First 18 and 20 runs were at roughly 7:00 pace. The 2nd 18, I did the last 14 miles in 6:40ish after a 4 mile warm up to average a 6:50 something pace and I felt like I had plenty left. The 22, I did yesterday at what felt pretty slow at a 7:10 pace and I know I had a few more in me. I meant to go even slower, but I just couldn't. I'm planning on doing one more 20 miler next weekend with the final 8-10 miles at 6:30 pace.
- I've done a few MP runs 8 - 10 miles at 6:30 pace.
- 3 x 3 mi (6:26, 5:55, 6:26) which 1/3 mi jog rests
- 3 x 2 mi (5:40s)
- Plenty of tempos between 5 - 7 miles at ~6:00 pace.
So, I know it's hard to get the first one right, and my mileage could be higher etc.. but I was still thinking I have a good chance to break 3:00. In fact, I was thinking of shooting for 2:55. Does this sound reasonable? I know eventually, with more mileage, based on my half time and shorter PRs, I probably have a faster time in me, but I don't want to risk blowing up too much in my first one. Any suggestions/advice would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!