I would say, if I had to bet, that the odds are let's say 3-1 in favor of a near term Bear Market within the next 6 months. Why that time frame? 1) The valuation metrics, index level and earnings, is at the upper end of extreme and rivals all periods except the late 1990s and 1929. 2) Interest rates are very low, providing perception that there is no alternative to stocks, which is an idea that has no basis in fact. Interest rates will eventually rise. 3) Expansionary business cycles are typically seven years in length, the current one stands at 7 years and 5 months, the second longest in history.