ancient history
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
DGTD Historian, February 2016, ancient history.....
1929, the Stone Age....
mellon wrote:
[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon,
Corrections don't last 2-4 weeks.
Look at the dishonest language used by the industry.
A drop in the market is not a drop but a "correction".
You have not lost a lot of money but have been given a "buying opportunity".
Nobody knows if the market or any particular stock will go up or down (not counting inside info which, in theory, is illegal to trade on but in reality its legality depends on who is using it) yet the industry makes massive amounts selling (non-existent) expertise.
It has been prove time and time again that the market indices outperform all managed funds (which is common sense due to the fees these funds charge) yet they are still in business -- even thriving.
Hi, K5! Did you know that your boy Igy is part of the industry you are crying about?
A more telling topic for the current environment should be stock valuations and cash flow, which can be measured against reliable standards. Those standards are ignored in favor of convenient stories that have little to no reliability when back tested. The big money is lost when investing at valuation extremes. The cost of indexing versus managed is real and important, but so much less than blindly investing in history's most destorted stock and bond market.
Igy
There's money being made two. For every buyer, there is a seller.
....and plenty of cash on the sidelines....
So their not blindly investing?
I was making a joke. You hear people say "there is plenty of cash on the sidelines" to move the market higher. Cash does not take a different form, stocks don't take a different form. Someone always holds a stock at every moment in time. The only thing that moves the market is the eagerness to buy or sell.
Igy
Wall Street stocks could aim at more records on Monday, with futures moving moderately higher as investors continue to take inspiration from last week's solid U.S. jobs data.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 32 points, or 0.2%, to 18,484, while S&P 500 futures gained 3.7 points to 2,180.25. Nasdaq-100 index added 11.75 points, or 0.3%, to 4,794.75.
A strong start to the week would pick up where Friday's record-breaking session left off. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite Index each nailed all-time closing highs, up 0.9% to 2,182.87 and up 1.1% to 5,221.12, respectively. It was the first closing record in more than a year for the Nasdaq.
The U.S. economy added 255,000 jobs in July. The reading blasted past analyst's expectations and breathed new life into stocks, even though that number may nudge the Federal Reserve toward a near-term interest-rate hike.
"The S&P500 and Dow Jones picked up a positive momentum; equity investors appeared comfortable with the idea of a tightening in the U.S.'s monetary conditions," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst with London Capital Group, in a note.
Ozkardeskaya said if the U.S. economy continues to improve, the markets could give their blessing to an additional 25-basis-point hike by the end of the year. But she says the major challenge for the Fed is that major central banks around the world are easing.
"Hence, by simply maintaining the status quo, the Fed's policy path diverges from the rest of the world," she said.
K5 detector wrote:
Hi, K5! Did you know that your boy Igy is part of the industry you are crying about?
Another well argued, fact filled, posting from the guy obsessed with butt hurts.
The industry is a sham yet this dupe gets all whiny when this simple fact is proven.
Why do you like to talk about butt hurts?
S&P 500 Q2 2016 Earnings Report:
158 of 430 companies beat reported GAAP EPS or 36%
220 of 426 companies beat reported sales or 52%
GAAP Last Twelve Month (LTM) PE 24.81 or highest since 9/30/2009. Using Friday's close (2,182) and current LTM estimated earnings ($87.23), market trading at 25 PE.
Data is worse than previous week's report. Forward operating for 2016 downgraded to $112.21, still requiring record setting earnings for Q3 and Q4 to hit those numbers.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
And S&P 500 valuations get more extended....life will end badly.....
Ok - So you say life will end badly. Exactly what do you think is going to happen?
And when do you think it will happen? Within 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years?
mellon,
My "life will end badly" was a response to "life is good" when the S&P 500 hit a new high Friday. Timing for a Bear Market is dependent upon investor risk preferences and not events. The valuation metrics, index level and earnings, is at the upper end of extreme and rivals all periods except the late 1990s and 1929. The difference between the late 1990s and today are two fold, at that time it was largely a tech sector driving extremes, interest rates were considerably higher giving balanced portfolios some ballast. Of course the valuations can get more extreme, but mean reversion would likely be more severe.
Igy
mellon,
Here from the often quoted MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/earnings-beats-are-concealing-bad-results-2016-08-05
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
mellon,
My "life will end badly" was a response to "life is good" when the S&P 500 hit a new high Friday. Timing for a Bear Market is dependent upon investor risk preferences and not events. The valuation metrics, index level and earnings, is at the upper end of extreme and rivals all periods except the late 1990s and 1929. The difference between the late 1990s and today are two fold, at that time it was largely a tech sector driving extremes, interest rates were considerably higher giving balanced portfolios some ballast. Of course the valuations can get more extreme, but mean reversion would likely be more severe.
Igy
Thank you for that clarification.
I thought you were insinuating that there is a correction, leading to a Bear Market, on the horizon sometime soon.
As i posted on this thread (3 years ago now), that isn't going to happen anytime soon.
I just hate to see people buying in to these ridiculous predictions (Like the one the OP made). I can't imagine how much money he's missed out on.