agip,
As my runner/coach friend would say " you can't wear a tuxedo everyday."
I doubt whether I will ever be able to train enough miles to effectively race a half marathon.
Igy
agip,
As my runner/coach friend would say " you can't wear a tuxedo everyday."
I doubt whether I will ever be able to train enough miles to effectively race a half marathon.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
John Hussman, "The Coming Fed-Induced Pension Bust"
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160523.htm
Hard to have confidence in a guy who doesn't even know what the date is.
Publish date is always Monday for his weekly commentary even though often you can read it on the Hussman site Sunday.
Igy Hussman is even more long-winded than I am. :)
The only salient point in that article was that they effed-up on their projections.
No kidding. They did that intentionally, and for obvious reasons. Look at CSPF.
Anybody who draws a wage from a pension fund should be required to participate in the fund.
This trajectory is only in its infancy. The question is not what to do, it's where to go or where to be, and how to do it.
Maserati,
I think you pointed out the Illinois public employees pension, what a disaster. As some point the public will realize that there is not enough money to pay 50% of the obligations and both stocks and bonds are at record highs. Wait until a bad market. I keep working rather than believing things just work out.
Igy
Igy I was talking about Central States, and their rejected application to Treasury to cut benefits by 60%. Treasury said such a cut was insufficient to render the fund solvent.
PBGC's not going to help, CSPF is "too big to bail" for them. It will take a special act of Congress, if and when.
Like I've said here a million times before, there are no practical alternatives to the markets, even for "sophisticated investors" like the CSPF, and whoever manages their funds. They're lazy effers, as most are who use the markets. I can't tell you how much less work just riding the markets has historically required, than actually putting one's money to work in real business.
And those few who do very well in the markets spend essentially every waking hour doing it, not missing a beat--but let's face it, that's not the norm, even among portfolio managers.
These pension boards don't just pull these ridiculous projections out of their aszes, no--it is a combination of that, plus reliance on "expert" advice, which often amounts to no more than a sales pitch. Stay with us, you will get 8% going forward. Because it's not their money, because it's an easy route, because they have done something to cover their aszes, and because in the long run even the inevitable underperformance will still conform to market norms, they don't have a problem with it.
People are insanely lazy. It's not that they don't work, it's that they don't adapt--even when they do work, and work hard, they do the same thing they have always done, which makes them very efficient at it and excellent where the job calls for consistency and efficiency--but in a dynamic environment like the markets/investing, they SUCK, unless they are insanely well-capitalized, have significant political power, have inside information and use it, or some combination of all 3, so that they can can to some extent conform the market to themselves, rather than the other way around.
Yes it's a run-on sentence.
If they lack these qualities, the best they can hope to do is to get swept along with the bulk of the tide, which is what pretty much everyone does.
Pensions are screwed, and it's only going to get WAY worse. I can FEEL the capital levy coming, and I feel sorry for those who are not in a position to protect themselves.
Stock futures were flat Monday as both the dollar and oil prices weakened and investors braced for a busy week of Federal Reserve speakers. Reversing earlier gains, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 12 points to 17,470, while those for the S&P 500 index slipped 2 points to 2,048. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 futures gained 2.5 points to 4,364.
Equities closed higher on Friday, when the S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak to close up 0.3% last week. The Nasdaq Composite Index came off a four-week run of declines to gain 1.1%, but the Dow industrials extended its series of weekly losses to four, dropping 0.2%.
The dollar and oil prices were on the move Monday. A much-stronger-than-expected April trade surplus for Japan helped lift the yen, which weighed on the dollar , sending it to Yen109.47 from Yen110.22 late Friday in New York. The Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.5% on yen strength.
At the same time, crude prices were pushing lower as investors refocused on a global supply glut. Oil-field services firm Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. was unchanged last week, while number of oil rigs in the Permian Basin in West Texas rose. July WTI crude dropped 80 cents, or 1.7%, to $47.61 a barrel.
The biggest influence for stock action this week could come from a heavy schedule of Federal Reserve speakers. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the U.S. is "on the verge" of meriting a June interest-rate hike, in an interview with the Financial Times that published on Sunday. Two weeks ago, he said rate increases should resume. The highlight of the week will be comments from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who is slated to speak at 1:15 p.m. Eastern on Friday.
Maserati,
I don't disagree with your view. Most are blind or a least avoiding dealing with reality. Hey we have Caitlyn Jenner and the Housewives as our model. And rather than working hard to achieve something in distance running we PED or in the case of masters track get a TUE for low-T. I don't mind being a throw-back, not one of the cool-kids.
Igy
MarketWatching
The highlight of the week will be comments from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who is slated to speak at 1:15 p.m. Eastern on Friday. "High frequency traders are praying for a lifeline from the Chair, hoping for another churn-up in the markets," said Igy in a note.
And those few who do very well in the markets spend essentially every waking hour doing it, not missing a beat--but let's face it, that's not the norm, even among portfolio managers.
History suggests one can do well in the market by NOT paying attention. Women are good investors because they typically don't micromanage their investments.
Q1 2016 S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard
479 companies reported (95.8%)
170 of 479 beat GAAP earnings
254 beat on sales
Last 12 months earnings (LTM) tracking at $86.33 lowest since 6/30/2011, Q1 tracking at $21.61 lowest Q1 since 2011. PE tracking at 23.86 which is the highest since 9/30/2009.
Wall Street average estimate for non-GAAP 2016 S&P earnings is $114.80, or 16% high than the current LTM tracking of $98.75. No surprise though, one year ago the LTM non-GAAP estimate for 2016 was $135.03. Magically 71% of companies are beating non-GAAP while only 35% beat on GAAP.
That's right, non-GAAP tells us what the companies ARE REALLY DOING.
Yea, right.
Igy
All of that is meaningless as you're talking about beating estimates. I don't know why supposedly intelligent people get their panties all in a wad over made up data. Pay attention to the earnings themselves, not whether or not they beat some pencil pusher's estimate.
Toucher,
Think so. OK, what do you base your opinion on?
Igy
Why do you ask, if you agree with me? Anyway my explanation is quite clear in my previous post.
Toucher,
My point is the actual earnings are in decline, and have been so since Q3 2014. The non-GAAP numbers are phony from the company, and analysts are using them because it supports the narrative that "stocks are not overvalued."
Igy
That point is well taken. However, discussion about earnings that did, or did not, "beat" some fantasy numbers is simply hot air and adds nothing to an intelligent discussion.
econ today:
"PMI manufacturing flash" came in frozen at 50.5, meaning stasis.
interesting story in teh journal today - suggested a split: comapanies that sell to north america are doing great, companies that sell overseas are sucking wind. because of strong dollar and slowness overseas.
that would explain some of the duality...strong hiring but weak profits etc.
Toucher,
I agree with your "hot air" comment. That "hot air" gets a lot of play in the financial media.
Igy
I said "very well", not well. For those who do "very well", they treat it as their business and apply themselves.
Got any data that show that passive female investors, or any passive investors for that matter, significantly beat the indexes?
Maserati wrote:
I said "very well", not well. For those who do "very well", they treat it as their business and apply themselves.
Got any data that show that passive female investors, or any passive investors for that matter, significantly beat the indexes?
And I wrote "well". See the difference. I'm not talking about necessarily beating an index, though that would be great. Simply tracking a targeted index would be considered investing "well" imo. Trying for "very well" involves more risk and most of the time results in failure. Anyone who tells you they are the exception is a liar.
Regarding the success of female investors, there was an article recently in one of the financial rags. If I have time later, I'll try to find it. Or you can look for it yourself.
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