Rubbish. You have no idea what these mean, because you have no idea about either their context or their details.
agip wrote:
this one's for the women in green and Maserati. Vroom Vroom.
Today's econ numbers:
Jobless claims 4 wk average at lowest levels in a long time, stable
Phily Fed shows strong uptick
Bberg consumer confidence shows solid growth
Leading indicators - up a smidge but still lowish
Hogwash. I know all there is to know about lightly clothed drunken women in green.
Maserati wrote:agip wrote:Rubbish. You have no idea what these mean, because you have no idea about either their context or their details.
this one's for the women in green and Maserati. Vroom Vroom.
Today's econ numbers:
Jobless claims 4 wk average at lowest levels in a long time, stable
Phily Fed shows strong uptick
Bberg consumer confidence shows solid growth
Leading indicators - up a smidge but still lowish
Stop wasting our time parroting things you don't understand.
Perfect.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
Just sell before the crash. Why miss out on free money. It's not rocket science.
Then why dispense perfectly useless advice?
Rocket Scientist wrote:
I have no clue.
Trend Following.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
It's actually quite easy. After all, it's not rocket science.
The researchers at PIMCO think otherwise. The Recession of 2020:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Maserati,
Rest assured that there is a limit to financial interest rate suppression. We are already at the upper threshold of debt for governments, corporations and individuals. There is a strong case for a market that wil be as bad as 2002 and 2008. If the markets ever loses confidence in the ability of central banks to save investors bacon, the pig be committed to make bacon for the Gods of the Market.
"When hubris reigns the market is bountiful in its fruits, only to be swallowed by the bear. For every season, turn, turn."
Igloiastics 01:01
You have nothing in terms of evidence to suggest that there will be a bear market like 2000 or 2008 or that it will happen soon. It could just as easily be a business cycle bottom like 1994. The market in 2000 had PE values MUCH higher than now before the top occurred. People on the political right have been forecasting this "crash" for years now and they have been dead wrong. The main reason there will be no crash for years is that there are waaaaay too many people predicting it.
Confessions first: I’m actually not predicting a recession in 2020. Everybody knows that it is impossible to forecast the ups and downs of the business cycle several years ahead. Even six to 12 months ahead, it is extremely difficult to call a recession correctly – in fact, most economists forecast a recession only after it has started
agreed that trend following can be successful, but it is very rocky and tests your resolve time and again.
coach d wrote:Rocket Scientist wrote:Trend Following.
It's actually quite easy. After all, it's not rocket science.
It really is rocket science, or at least data science, with statistical analysis and backtesting if you want an optimal result. The problem with just setting stops, like 20% and you're out, is that some of the Russell Indices and maybe also the NYSE have hit lows of 24% declines in the last 6 months, and you don't want to get stopped at the bottom and see the market go back up against you.
What you want to do is follow the trend, and detect when the trend reverses. There are a number of trend following systems like 5day/10/day/20day moving average crosses that you can read about on the web. The version I use is 19 week/39 week EMA cross which has been backtested. You go short or long when the moving averages cross, and in my system, there have been 7 signals in the last 20+ years.
Generally, trend following systems make twice as much money as buy-hold by avoiding most of bear markets. You get a copy of Metastock and build/optimize a system until you have something that stands up to backtesting.
could be either. You have to specify on most charts which you want. Yahoo finance or bigcharts .
Investing neophyte wrote:
Is the horizontal line I see on graphs the 200-day moving average, 50-day, or something else?
But you claim to be a rocket scientist. I would expect that you know that you buy stops on mutual funds?
Rocket Scientist wrote:
It's not useless advice. Use stops to sell before they fall too far. It's not rocket science.