• Maserati
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 8:42AM - in reply to MarketWatch
      • Maserati
        registered
      • You know, although the dow is at 17k at the moment, and that is my predicted 2016 upper bound, I get "the feel" that this bump could have legs.

        And that scares the crap out of me.
    • Mango Jerry
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 8:44AM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Mango Jerry
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Milt,

        Get your eyes checked.

        Igy
        You are responding to a fake Milton -- the k5 defector, try to keep up guy.
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 9:14AM - in reply to K5 detector
      • agip
        registered
      • today's econ numbers:

        Gallup US consumer spending measure: Self reported number of how much money spent each day. $84. up from $81 previously. So that is good I suppose.

        Labor conditions index (from the Fed) - -2.4. Which is carpy - was -0.8 last month.

        Strange that this number is negative when almost everything else in the labor markets are improving.

        Supposedly this index is important to Yellen and giving rationalizion for keeping rates low.

        in market news:

        1 month:
        Small caps +7.1%
        Large Caps: +4.7%

        generally bullish when small caps outperform, but they've been so terrible for a year that this could be just a bounce. But days like today are interesting, when the SPX is down 0.3% but small caps are up 0.3%.
    • MarketWatch
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 12:03PM - in reply to agip
      • MarketWatch
      • Re: Labor Market Conditions Index

        The index’s track record as a leading indicator is mixed, however. The LMCI has started to tumble months before every recession since 1980. Yet the index has also turned negative on a number of occasions even when the economy was doing OK, like it did several times during a long boom in the 1990s.

        The upshot: The labor market is not improving as rapidly as it did a few years ago, but it’s not tanking, either. Layoffs remain very low and companies are more likely to add workers instead of getting rid of them.
    • agip
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 1:21PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • agip
        registered
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Labor is a lagging not a leading economic indicator. I would analyze earnings if you are looking for the future direction of the market:



        http://realinvestmentadvice.co...f-q4-2015/

        Igy
        I would NOT encourage people to analyze past earnings to look for the future direction of the market.

        Talk about lagging indicators...
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 1:36PM - in reply to agip
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • agip,

        If you would read the article it would show how the Wall Street analyst projected earnings overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. At the end of 2014 the same Wall Street analysts estimated GAAP earnings for 2015 would reach in excess of $131, it came in at $86.46. Those same analyst are projecting your much touted second half earnings recovery to $112 for 2016, and $120 for 2017.

        Good luck with that.

        Igy
    • Mr. Bill's dog
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 1:54PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Mr. Bill's dog
      • Ghost of Igloi wrote:
        Labor is a lagging not a leading economic indicator. I would analyze earnings if you are looking for the future direction of the market:

        http://realinvestmentadvice.co...f-q4-2015/

        Igy
        The LMCI is not directly related to market direction. It IS related to the potential for rate increases by the Fed which, in turn, may affect market direction.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 2:06PM - in reply to Mr. Bill's dog
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Dog,

        LMCI will be the Fed excuse to raise interest rates. The Fed knows they are in a box with no "conventional ammunition" to face the next recession. The Fed will raise interest rates because they have to.

        Igy
    • Maserati
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 3:38PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • Maserati
        registered
      • Like I said, the Fed is now leading, not following. They will do whatever they can to make the dual mandate look good.

        agip posting numbers and sources for you seems to be a wasted effort. You post as though you didn't even read, or consider, them.

        I hope others get more value from those posts.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 3:58PM - in reply to Maserati
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Maserati,

        I read all of your and agip's posts. I disagree with the conclusions and offer my reasons why. Earnings do determine the path of equities and fundamentals do matter for the future direction of the market. To believe differently is not supported by historical market data.

        Igy
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
    • lnstigator
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 8:16PM - in reply to Ghost of Igloi
      • lnstigator
      • There are no citations. He's just making up numbers. It's completely unprofessional and reminiscent of his work in the Reagan administration and on Wall Street. Given his well documented penchant for fantasy, only a fool would believe what he says.
    • Ghost of Igloi
      registered
      • RE: Down goes the Dow 3/7/2016 8:28PM - in reply to lnstigator
      • Ghost of Igloi
        registered
      • Instigator,

        It just goes to show how little you know. The numbers are all correct. Go to the S&P website yourself. See my posts from Sunday which quoted the same numbers from S&P.

        You are the fool.

        Igy