Down goes the Dow

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Milt,

Get your eyes checked.

Igy

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Hi, K5!

today's econ numbers:

Gallup US consumer spending measure: Self reported number of how much money spent each day. $84. up from $81 previously. So that is good I suppose.

Labor conditions index (from the Fed) - -2.4. Which is carpy - was -0.8 last month.

Strange that this number is negative when almost everything else in the labor markets are improving.

Supposedly this index is important to Yellen and giving rationalizion for keeping rates low.

in market news:

1 month:
Small caps +7.1%
Large Caps: +4.7%

generally bullish when small caps outperform, but they've been so terrible for a year that this could be just a bounce. But days like today are interesting, when the SPX is down 0.3% but small caps are up 0.3%.

Re: Labor Market Conditions Index

The index’s track record as a leading indicator is mixed, however. The LMCI has started to tumble months before every recession since 1980. Yet the index has also turned negative on a number of occasions even when the economy was doing OK, like it did several times during a long boom in the 1990s.

The upshot: The labor market is not improving as rapidly as it did a few years ago, but it’s not tanking, either. Layoffs remain very low and companies are more likely to add workers instead of getting rid of them.

Labor is a lagging not a leading economic indicator. I would analyze earnings if you are looking for the future direction of the market:



http://realinvestmentadvice.com/analyzing-earnings-as-of-q4-2015/

Igy

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Labor is a lagging not a leading economic indicator. I would analyze earnings if you are looking for the future direction of the market:



http://realinvestmentadvice.com/analyzing-earnings-as-of-q4-2015/

Igy

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agip,

If you would read the article it would show how the Wall Street analyst projected earnings overestimate reality by roughly 33% historically. At the end of 2014 the same Wall Street analysts estimated GAAP earnings for 2015 would reach in excess of $131, it came in at $86.46. Those same analyst are projecting your much touted second half earnings recovery to $112 for 2016, and $120 for 2017.

Good luck with that.

Igy

agip,

Even from your often quoted FactSet:

http://www.factset.com/insight/2016/03/earningsinsight_03.04.16?utm_source=social#.Vt3b29P2ZaT

Igy

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

agip,

Even from your often quoted FactSet:

http://www.factset.com/insight/2016/03/earningsinsight_03.04.16?utm_source=social#.Vt3b29P2ZaT

Igy

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Labor is a lagging not a leading economic indicator. I would analyze earnings if you are looking for the future direction of the market:

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/analyzing-earnings-as-of-q4-2015/

Igy

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Dog,

LMCI will be the Fed excuse to raise interest rates. The Fed knows they are in a box with no "conventional ammunition" to face the next recession. The Fed will raise interest rates because they have to.

Igy

Like I said, the Fed is now leading, not following. They will do whatever they can to make the dual mandate look good.

agip posting numbers and sources for you seems to be a wasted effort. You post as though you didn't even read, or consider, them.

I hope others get more value from those posts.

Maserati,

I read all of your and agip's posts. I disagree with the conclusions and offer my reasons why. Earnings do determine the path of equities and fundamentals do matter for the future direction of the market. To believe differently is not supported by historical market data.

Igy

Maserati,

There is more relevant commentary from this evil David Stockman piece than you get from conventional financial media sources.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-price-isnt-right-how-central-banks-are-fixing-to-ambush-the-casino/

Igy

Wow, talk about conspiracy theories.

Instigator,

Where is the conspiracy? Explain in detail.

Igy

There are no citations. He's just making up numbers. It's completely unprofessional and reminiscent of his work in the Reagan administration and on Wall Street. Given his well documented penchant for fantasy, only a fool would believe what he says.

Instigator,

It just goes to show how little you know. The numbers are all correct. Go to the S&P website yourself. See my posts from Sunday which quoted the same numbers from S&P.

You are the fool.

Igy

Instigator,

Here is some before bed time reading. Hope it doesn't give you night sweats:

http://etfdailynews.com/2016/03/07/non-gaap-earnings-are-about-to-plunge-the-most-since-2009/

Igy