On earning from Bloomberg:
Igy
On earning from Bloomberg:
Igy
Stocks and gold rally ahead of US jobs report.
Here's why you can expect more upside for U.S. Stocks
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-you-can-expect-more-upside-for-us-stocks-2016-03-04
Another meaningless indicator that says nothing about equity valuations.
It's the earnings stupid.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On earning from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-02/earnings-downgrades-turning-into-deluge-as-first-quarter-cratersIgy
scary stuff. So why is the market shrugging it off? Just traders trading? Or is the market predicting better profits in 6 months?
today's econ news:
nonfarm payrolls: strong job creation and workforce participation #s, but weaker average hourly earnings and length of work week.
International trade: more bad numbers suggesting global weakness.
so this is probably the point where people with low confidence sell some stocks and get more conservative. We've had a sizable 11% rally off the bottom and only around 5% below 52 week highs.
But earnings are deteriorating and global econ conditions are weakening.
I think it is probably prudent to pull back some risk.
I don't see the need for insults.
"strong job creation and workforce participation #s, but weaker average hourly earnings and length of work week."
With respect, I thought we already went through this.
"Job creation" was not strong at all, maybe 70k.
"Workforce participation" is terrible, at an almost all-time low. Added to that was an increased number of jobless claims.
Not only are average hourly earnings down, total compensation is in the tank. And take-home pay is in the crapper.
And this all comes from big-time payroll data. The mom-and-pop situation is, although extremely varied for owners, terrible for the employees.
Let's agree to forget about U1-U6 employment data--it is complete b.s., and is used only as a tool to manage interest rate expectations of market participants.
It's the tail wagging the dog in the dual-mandate.
"But earnings are deteriorating and global econ conditions are weakening. I think it is probably prudent to pull back some risk."
Beat you to it! (As though that was a good thing)
Economic conditions to me are currently just sad, rather than truly bad.
I was not insulting an individual, I was insulting an idea that is totally unreliable.
maser, I think you see what you want to see in the results.
Perhaps you should take a creative writing course.
OK, you're right--economic conditions ARE truly bad.
Lagging indicators are strong to steady (employment) while leading indicators (inventory, orders) are weak to steady. Corporate earnings continue to fall while stocks have rallied. The net of that is stock valuations have become more, not less overvalued. The Fed has stated that employment data is key, so more likely to raise again sooner. The Fed has been behind in moving, so becomes a convenient data point to raise interest rates. Rising cost of capital and rising employment inputs do not equate to higher earnings.
Igy
Perhaps you should learn more about the markets rather than quoting "wives tales."
You have entered the Twilight Zone...
Is not reading MarketWatch learning about the markets?
Don't argue with Igy. He's always right, especially when he's wrong.
You are awesome, ya right, ya kow.
You would be better off reading John Hussman's Weekly Market Commentary than MarketWatch.
Igy