You seem to have some difficulty with reading comprehension. Yes, I claim the week was a wash and I stand by that. But I never said the Dow was not down at the end of the week, nor did I suggest no one should comment.
You seem to have some difficulty with reading comprehension. Yes, I claim the week was a wash and I stand by that. But I never said the Dow was not down at the end of the week, nor did I suggest no one should comment.
Pollly P wrote:
You seem to have some difficulty with reading comprehension. Yes, I claim the week was a wash and I stand by that. But I never said the Dow was not down at the end of the week, nor did I suggest no one should comment.
You're all over the place.
I'll keep it simple.
Try to explain why it I not legitimate to post a comment noting the Dow dropped nearly 2% on Friday.
I have no problem with you posting about the drop. I was, and still am, curious as to what your motivation was given that the overall week was relatively unchanged.
Pollly P wrote:
I have no problem with you posting about the drop. I was, and still am, curious as to what your motivation was given that the overall week was relatively unchanged.
Here's your answer, Polly.
K5 detector wrote:
You are conversing with the notorious K5. He touts every little drop because he is butthurt after pulling out of the market over 2 years ago. He predicted the market would crash, but instead he has lost out on a record Bull market.
He is also a bigot.
You are a little confused. You are the one who loves the racist colonial settler state called Israel. The State that treats one group of people favorable and oppresses all other groups. The state that has killed over 200 Palestinians since October and has maimed thousands.
That makes you the bigot.
You, or course, are no unusual, You are quite typical of Israeli loyalists. You are a dime a dozen. Favor one group over others and whine and scream racism when you get called on it.
A very sick people.
Read more:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=400#ixzz3us0TVhDx
Wrong again, K5. Don't you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
Pollly P wrote:
"I have no problem with you posting about the drop."
False. Your original comment on this topic:
"Back to where we were on Monday. What was your point again"
Clearly you do have a problem with my posting.
"I was, and still am, curious as to what your motivation was given that the overall week was relatively unchanged."
More dishonesty. First off, you originally asked "What was your point again?" When my comment was a simple statement of fact, not an opinion, not a viewpoint. It was not until I pointed this out that you switched your line of attack to saying you questioned the motivation behind the comment. And, finally, you do not, of course, question the motivation behind any of the other comments.
You have told so many lies on this one simple observation you cannot keep them straight.
[quote]K5 detector wrote:
Wrong again, K5. Don't you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
Really? Point out the factual inaccuracies in the following comment.
You are a little confused. You are the one who loves the racist colonial settler state called Israel. The State that treats one group of people favorable and oppresses all other groups. The state that has killed over 200 Palestinians since October and has maimed thousands.
That makes you the bigot.
You, or course, are no unusual, You are quite typical of Israeli loyalists. You are a dime a dozen. Favor one group over others and whine and scream racism when you get called on it.
A very sick people.
Asking "What was your point again?" was my way of trying to determine why you chose that particular fact to highlight and ignored the others that offered some perspective. For some reason, you have evaded that simple question. You have left me no choice but to accept the explanation of K5 detector. Given that, I must say you are one sick fuck. You and I are done.
K5 detector wrote:
Wrong again, K5. Don't you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
Your entire arsenal consists of the following two statements:
Hi k5.
You're wrong.
You must have been captain of your college debate team.
The first "factual inaccuracy" is your first sentence.
K5 detector wrote:
The first "factual inaccuracy" is your first sentence.
We got to get going on this thread.
Despite "Detectors" incessant postings filled with whines about anti-Semitism and his equally numerous "Hi K5s" that point to his autism, we are way behind the Rossi thread with only 8k comments vs. 19k.
This week the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (the “Fedâ€) raised interest rates in the US. In our view, this signaled some confidence in the US economy and specifically in a strong US labor market. However despite this decision, US interest rates remain low by historical standards and the new target rate of 0.25%-0.5% is below the past several decades of the Fed Funds rate prior to 2009. However, we do not believe the Fed’s recent action makes continued rate increases a certainty. For example, the recent experience of Japan shows that interest rates set by a central bank could remain below 1% for 20 years.
Remember too, that our recommended portfolio is internationally diversified. Though the actions of the US Federal Reserve can be important, your portfolio has global exposure and responds to global monetary conditions. This is important to bear in mind as US monetary policy decisions dominate the media.
Additionally, according to the book, Invest With The Fed, both equities and bonds have historically delivered positive returns over a 48 year sample period regardless of whether rates were rising, falling or indeterminate. Based on this analysis, the actions of the Fed, in part because they are taken in response to a robust US economy, may not necessarily be harmful to our recommended portfolio.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Say,
Yes, that is not the case. I can give you several examples of bondholders that did not get 100% of their principal returned. In the last business cycle to name a few: Delphi Automotive, Winn-Dixie Stores, William Lyon Homes, Residential Capital Trust, General Motors, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac.The high yield bond market currently projects about 22 defaults over the next five years.
Igy
I understand about defaults. But in the post I was replying to you mentioned lower NAVs, not defaults. Isn't it true that in a non-default (likely) scenario, NAVs don't matter if a bond is held to maturity? Isn't 100% of the principal returned in those cases?
Say,
Yes, if an individual bond is held to maturity and there is no default, by definition there would be a return of principal. On the other hand a bond fund NAV and redeemable value can be influenced by fund redemptions as well as defaults. For example a bond fund manager being forced to sell securities with falling value to fund redemptions. That was one of the fears of the recent junk bond sell-off. During the market turmoil in the winter of 2008 and 2009 several bond mutual funds closed their doors with severe losses of principal to their investors.
Igy
I get that. You were actually talking about funds, but it sounded to me like you were talking about individual bonds. It's all clear now.
Say,
If one is purchasing Treasury bonds the due diligence required of investors is limited. As investors move down the credit curve more due diligence is required. Once the economic cycle peaks the lower quality bonds move more in tandem with the equity markets. Here is an interesting article that appeared on Bloomberg today.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-18/history-of-junk-bond-meltdowns-points-to-trouble
Igy
ok I'm back - Star Wars has my approval. Fun and meaningful.
re; buying individual bonds - there is no perfect way.
If you buy a treasury bond and hold it to maturity, you'll get your principal back. But if inflation moves up beyond expectations, you wont *actually* get your principal back.
With a fund you may not get your money back but if inflation moves up you have a better shot at getting your principal back.
re; K5 -
Can we ignore the troll please? He adds nothing to the thread and his goal is to sidetrack and move us toward the dark side.
If you stop feeding him he'll stop talking.
agip,
My thoughts would be, at this stage of the economic/interest rate cycle, I would overweight short term high quality bonds, with lower weighting to high yield and long term bonds. I would be neutral weight intermediate, emerging markets, and global fixed income, with the first one a hedge to equity, and the last two a valuation bet.
Igy