Oh, by the way, the CAPE 10 was predictive, since the S&P 500 dropped by 54% 2000-2002 and 59% 2007-2009. Funnily enough the March 9, 2009 S&P was equivalent to a level in 1996. Furthermore, higher or lower S&P 500 versus CAPE 10 levels are reflections of rising or falling S&P 500 earnings and profit margins, so to make a comparison like yours means little. CAPE 10 valuation levels are a measurement in time, predicting rising or falling levels in that ten year time period. Using CAPE 10 today is predictive for S&P 500 levels 30-50% lower over the completion of the current market cycle.
S&P earnings and profit margins are falling-a fact. The market has gone nowhere in a year-a fact. High yield spreads and defaults rising-a fact. Narrowing breadth of the market-a fact. Record margin debt hit and falling-a fact.
I believe before this market cycle ends we will be closer to 1000 S&P than 3000 S&P.