Investment Company Institute data continues to not look positive:
https://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_12_02_15
How does the market go up if nobody wants to buy?
Down goes the Dow
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Looks like demand is not falling after all. Hear that, Igy?
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POTO,
OK. You are right everything is totally awesome. I think you should buy M like coach d recommends and while you are at it add to your FANG positions.
IGY -
coach d,
Easy answer, fund managers and hedgies trying to keep their jobs churning the FANG stocks. Typically late cycle market behavior.
Igy -
"Ya, like...I got my IPhone and Kardashians. I'm cool. Studying art. Loans paying it all. Things, like, a....the best. Sure I buy stocks. Its like, a...a sure thing. Right? Cool."
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coach d wrote:
Agip,
Take a look at the chart for the last correction in 2011. It took from May to the February 2012 for the previous high to be taken out, so I'd give the stock market some time. We have positive results from Cyber Monday sales out today, so retail isn't nearly as weak as was forecast, which suggests to me that M might be a buy (this was one of the best stocks on the street until about July). And don't forget the reason why everything is down today: Things are going well HERE.
But there's a great deal of carnage around the world (Brazil just added to that list this week), and that's why I'm strongly opposed to the expected rate hiking that traders have factored in.
Could be a good party....until the contagion burns us. But I see a lot markets sold down to prior support--potentially double bottoms, but it could be lights out to the downside if the FED does what they're thinking. So-called "classical" technical analysis would predict $28 oil if the support fails, which would mean that Goldman would be right again.
retail and service sectors are ok, mfgring is not, except cars which are gangbusters, and energy is bad, and financials are getting better...it's like the world economy is a V12 but only 4 cylinders are firing.
so yeah - the contagion is the issue - can those 4 cylinders keep working on their own? I dunno. Glad I'm an American tho - strong currency, self contained economy, no refugees...Europe has to be just sagging under pressure. First the financial crisis, then near zero growth, a collapsing currency and now millions of third worlders to support. Ach. -
S&P 500 is back below the 200 day moving average.
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S&P 500 now down below 50 day moving average.
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No Bulls today.
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Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
No Bulls today.
It is not a day-to-day thing. -
Why then are the Bulls so vocal on up days?
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this is a nasty day - 300 dow points.
I have some cash, putting it to work -
Agip,
Did you really think there would be NO discounting the FED policy change?
I also have cash to put to work, but I'm not placing any bets before Tuesday's announcement. Still planning to square commodity positions tomorrow through Tuesday. -
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
Why then are the Bulls so vocal on up days?
They certainly haven't been in this thread. The conversation here has been dominated by the Bears. -
coach d wrote:
Agip,
Did you really think there would be NO discounting the FED policy change?
I also have cash to put to work, but I'm not placing any bets before Tuesday's announcement. Still planning to square commodity positions tomorrow through Tuesday.
for pre's sake - the Fed has been telegraphing this for months - it's not a secret.
but yeah, bonds got smashed up real good today.
Sometimes the market is smart, sometimes it is really dumb. -
You mean like that rate hike we had in September...oh, I mean June, oh that's right, it was going to be March? Or the one in 2013 that was heavily discounted by the bond market?
My understanding is that today was caused by bond traders front running the ECB and expecting Draghi to do more than promised (wrong this time). But the lack of profit taking and short covering ahead of Tuesday has surprised me. NVR, one of the two homebuilders I have, had a new high on Tuesday, and of course I'll take it, but it makes no sense if everybody "knows" there will be a rate hike on Tuesday, and it didn't happen like that in 2004. High eps for a large homebuilder might make sense if people want to buy ahead of a policy change, but stock prices are supposed to be forward looking. -
The market looks forward. Any likely potential increases are already baked into the market.
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Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
Why then are the Bulls so vocal on up days?
You must be mistaken. The No Bulls tend not to be that vocal on up or down days. -
Big Dog Investments wrote:
The market looks forward. Any likely potential increases are already baked into the market.
So "likely potential" is already baked in? What does the magic eight ball say?
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Yellen has to raise rates or she loses even more of her already waning credibility.
